China standoff drags US beef exports to historic lows - USMEF
Gains in Korea and Central America offset only part of losses
24 November 2025
2 minute read
By: With US beef facing a multi-layered lockout in China, export results have worsened throughout 2025 as supplies of eligible product were depleted and more plants were suspended in June and August, according to the most recent market report from US Meat Export Federation (USMEF).
Exports sank to just 862 mt in August, down 94% from a year ago. For January through August, exports to China were 52% below last year in volume (56,494 mt) and 53% lower in value ($484.2 million). The accumulated decline in exports for January through October is estimated at $832 million, as September and October exports are also certain to be minimal.
As USMEF has previously reported, China has failed to renew registrations for the vast majority of US beef plants and cold storage facilities. But renewing these registrations is just one of the steps necessary to restore access for US beef in China, where 16 US plants have been suspended since June and 30 facilities have been suspended since 2022. For China to return to its commitments under the US-China Phase One Agreement, it must address all of the barriers obstructing access for US beef.
August beef exports to leading market Korea were slightly below last year in volume, falling 1.5% to 16,823 mt. But export value still increased 3% to $168 million. For January through August, exports to Korea increased 8% from a year ago in volume (162,907 mt) and 9% in value ($1.55 billion).
Beef exports to Central America posted another strong performance in August, climbing 5% from a year ago to 1,512 mt, while value soared 50% to $17 million. Led by robust growth in Guatemala and Costa Rica, January-August beef exports to the region are on a record pace, reaching 14,520 mt, up 6% from a year ago, while value climbed 34% to $134.2 million.
Among other markets, August beef exports trended higher than a year ago to the Caribbean region, led by growth in the Dominican Republic, Bahamas and Jamaica, and to South America, led by growth in Chile (where exports have been above year-ago levels in each of the past six months) and a rebound in Colombia. Exports were also higher to Hong Kong, the Philippines, Vietnam, Europe and Morocco, but trended lower to Japan, Mexico, Canada, Taiwan and the Middle East.
Beef export value equated to $372.10 per head of fed slaughter in August, down 5% from a year ago. The January-August average was $400.16 per head, down 3.5% from the same period last year. Exports accounted for 12.1% of total August beef production and 9.8% for muscle cuts only – each down about one percentage point from a year ago. The January-August ratios were 13.1% of total production and 11% for muscle cuts, down from 13.9% and 11.6%, respectively, during the same period last year.
