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Beef Consumption to Grow in China

28 September 2012

CHINA - China’s beef production in 2013 is forecast to increase less than one percent to 5.58 million metric tons (MMT) due to slightly higher calf production and slaughter.

The government’s subsidy to support beef cow production will no doubt help beef cow stocks and calf crop production in coming years.

Total beef consumption is expected to shift upwards in response to steady imports and slightly higher domestic beef production. Beef imports are expected to increase 12 per cent from the revised 2012 estimate to 34,000 metric tons (MT), carcass weight equivalence (CWE), driven by robust demand from the rising middle class.

However, decreased consumption of lower-income consumers is offset by increased middle-class consumption. As a result, per capita consumption remains only about four kilograms (kg). Live cattle imports are forecast at 115,000 and 120,000 head in 2012 and 2013, up 21 percent and four per cent, respectively, with breeding cows accounting for 90 per cent, driven by strong demand for dairy genetic improvement.

Beef exports will likely decline seven percent from the revised 2012 estimate to 43,000 MT given slow economic growth in export markets and high Chinese export unit price.

Beef exports to Hong Kong, China’s largest export market, are strongly challenged by Brazilian exports to Hong Kong because of competitive export prices, while exports to Japan will likely be dampened by Japan’s relevant level consumption, higher stocks, and greater volume of imports of US beef cuts.

Cattle exports are expected to remain the same due to flat demand in Hong Kong and Macau, the only exports markets.

Further Reading

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TheCattleSite News Desk



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