US beef export forecast cut as China lockout weighs on volumes
April shipments down 17% with Hong Kong gaining share
15 July 2026
1 minute read
By: US beef exports totalled 196 million pounds in April, down 17% year over year, with lower shipments to Japan, China, South Korea and Mexico accounting for the majority of the decline, according to the USDA's June livestock, dairy and poultry outlook.
Exports to Hong Kong rose 51%, or 5 million pounds, year over year, while shipments to countries outside the top six US beef export destinations were also slightly higher.
The declines reflect the ongoing impact of expired export registrations with China's General Administration of Customs, which lapsed in March 2025. China was the third-largest US beef market at that point in 2025 but has accounted for minimal exports since. Hong Kong's share of year-to-date US beef exports has increased from 3% to 7% as product previously destined for China has been redirected.
In May, some export registrations for certain US beef facilities were renewed on the Chinese customs website, though several facilities remain ineligible due to other restrictions. The USDA said exports of muscle cuts to China may increase in coming months but noted that product redirected to other markets over the past year, including Hong Kong, is likely to be redistributed.
Based on April export volumes, the USDA lowered its second-quarter 2026 export forecast by 20 million pounds to 600 million pounds. The annual forecast for 2026 was revised to 2.341 billion pounds, a year-over-year decline of 9%. The 2027 forecast was also trimmed slightly to 2.325 billion pounds.
