Global beef markets see softer demand - Rabobank

Softer prices due to increased supply, lower demand
calendar icon 26 September 2023
clock icon 2 minute read

Beef markets around the world – other than the US – are seeing softer consumer demand, with global cattle prices now split into two distinct groups: those in North America and Europe, and those in the rest of the world, according to the latest Rabobank Beef Quarterly report.

The Q3 report says declining supply and strong consumer demand in the US is driving cattle prices higher, while lower domestic beef supply has also held up beef prices in Canada and Europe. In most other regions, however, the opposite (increased supply and lower demand) is making prices softer.

Report lead author, Rabobank Senior Animal Protein Analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said US cattle prices have increased almost 30% the last 12 months, whereas Australian cattle prices have dropped by more than 30%.

“This price split is the largest we have seen in the past 10 years,” he said.

“Such a separation in prices will have consequences for beef exporters’ competitiveness, and we expect to see some shift in trade volumes as a result.”

Rabobank Senior Animal Protein Analyst, Angus Gidley-Baird

A consistent theme across most markets – other than the US – is softer consumer demand and full supply chains. In a number of regions, particularly in Asian countries, beef purchases made through 2022 and into 2023 in anticipation of recovery from Covid have not been consumed. These are now part of growing stock levels that also include other proteins.

“This price split is the largest we have seen in the past 10 years,” he says.

“Such a separation in prices will have consequences for beef exporters’ competitiveness, and we expect to see some shift in trade volumes as a result.”

A consistent theme across most markets – other than the US – is softer consumer demand and full supply chains. In a number of regions, particularly in Asian countries, beef purchases made through 2022 and into 2023 in anticipation of recovery from Covid have not been consumed. These are now part of growing stock levels that also include other proteins.

“Softer consumer demand is making it harder to move these volumes through the system,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.

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