Little Change Expected for Australian Cattle Prices
AUSTRALIA - The average Australian weighted saleyard cattle price in 2009-10 is expected to be almost on par with that in 2008-09, as the forecast of a higher A$ and lower export demand is offset by constrained cattle supplies as producers look to rebuild beef herds.According to the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics’ (ABARE) Australian commodities, June quarter 2009, the weighted saleyard cattle price in 2009-10 is forecast to average 296¢/kg cwt, compared to 295¢/kg cwt in 2008-09 and 286¢/kg cwt in 2007-08.
According to ABARE, the Australian beef cattle herd is forecast to increase to 25.1 million head in 2009-10, up 0.8 per cent from 2008-09, as producers expand cattle herds, especially across northern Australia. Across southern Australia, the ongoing drought conditions have delayed rebuilding efforts and boosted cow slaughter. However, if ABARE’s assumption of improved conditions into the second half of 2009 comes to fruition, female cattle turnoff is expected to tighten.
Given the assumption of improved seasonal conditions across southern Australia, ABARE has forecast cattle slaughter for 2009-10 to remain steady on the previous year, at 8.8 million head. An increase in average carcase weights in 2009-10 is forecast to push total production 0.5 per cent higher year-on-year, to 2.18 million tonnes cwt.
On the export front, ABARE has forecast Australian beef shipments to decline for the coming fiscal year, easing 2 per cent, to 940,000 tonnes swt. Sluggish demand, primarily due to the economic slowdown, combined with increased competition from the US is expected to see exports to Japan and Korea decline 3 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively, in 2009-10. In contrast, strong demand for manufacturing beef from the US is expected to contribute to exports increasing 7 per cent in 2009-10, to 300,000 tonnes swt.
According to ABARE, demand for Australian live cattle is expected to ease, with shipments falling 2 per cent year-on-year in 2009-10, to 780,000 head.
TheCattleSite News Desk