Weekly protein report: US cattle producers urged to strengthen biosecurity amid NWS risk

13 June 2026

21 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

South America

North America

Asia

Live cattle futures post gains for second day in a row

August live cattle on Wednesday rose $1.80 to $241.50. August feeder cattle gained $0.225 to $354.375, near mid-range. The live cattle futures markets saw speculators buying interest today as traders focused on the bullish elements of the New World screwworm being detected in the southern US USDA confirmed five cases of NWS in the US, three calves and a goat in Texas, and one dog in New Mexico. Mexico has also closed its border to US cattle imports. USDA at midday Wednesday reported very light cash cattle trading this week, averaging $254.15. The agency on Monday reported last week’s average cash cattle trading price was $256.53—down 33 cents from the week prior. 

NCBA: New World screwworm entering US not a surprise

Colin Woodall, CEO of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, said his group was not caught by surprise by the news New World screwworm has been detected in Texas and New Mexico. “This is something that, quite frankly, we, as the cattle industry, have been expecting for several months now. Ever since New World screwworm made it out of Guatemala into Mexico right before Thanksgiving of 2024, we expected this to be inevitable,” he told a reporter. Woodall said the NCBA began planning right away. “But that gave us over 18 months to get prepared. What we have seen here since the confirmation by Secretary Rollins is that we're ready. The plan is solid, it's in place, and not only is the industry ready - when I talk about the industry, I talk about the Texas cattle feeders, Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers, and NCBA, but also the Texas Animal Health Commission and USDA - the response is going as planned.” Woodall said the way to eradicate the screwworm is through sterile insect technology. There are now a total of five cases in the U. S. It includes a goat in Gillespie County Texas, calves in La Salle and Zavalla counties in Texas, and a dog in Lea County, New Mexico. The dog was originally reported to be a Texas case, but officials said they've since learned the dog lives in New Mexico.

Mexico halts imports of live US animals

Mexico's agriculture ministry said the country will halt most imports of live animals from the US after cases of New World screwworm were confirmed in Texas and New Mexico, Reuters reported. The suspension applies to cattle, horses, pigs, sheep, goats and several other species of animals, the ministry said, adding that the decision was made in coordination with USDA. The report said Mexico, which has seen over 28,000 cases of NWS since November 2024, cited the need to protect its cattle herd in the northern states of Baja California, Baja California Sur, Chihuahua and Sinaloa, where there are no current confirmed cases of screwworm.

USDA’s Rollins holding NWS press conference today in Texas

US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins will be holding a roundtable today with ranchers at Chapparosa Ranch during her trip to south Texas. “A sterile fly dispersal will occur on the ground of the ranch and after the dispersal the secretary will have a media gaggle,” said a USDA press release late Wednesday. The scheduled time for today’s press conference is noon CDT. Rollins has pushed back on suggestions that staff cuts at USDA could slow the agency’s response to the outbreak of a deadly cattle parasite in the US USDA has added more than 100 full-time employees to work on New World screwworm over the last 15 months in preparation for the parasite to arrive in the country, Rollins said.

Australia: Dairy and Products Semi-annual

USDA reports Australia’s milk production in 2026 is estimated to increase by 1.4 percent to 8.6 million metric tons, following a 2.1 percent decrease in 2025. This is a partial recovery after drought conditions impacted southwest Victoria and South Australia. This milk production growth is supported by firm farmgate milk prices, improved seasonal conditions, and relatively low feed grain costs. Domestic fluid milk consumption in 2026 is expected to decline by 0.5 percent, continuing a long-term downward trend. Factory-use milk consumption is projected to increase by 1.8 percent, largely reflecting the anticipated rise in milk production. Consequently, output of manufactured dairy products is expected to increase modestly. Exports of fluid milk, cheese, skim milk powder and butter are projected to increase in 2026. At the same time, imports of cheese and butter are expected to reach record levels, driven by strong growth in shipments from the United States.

Cargill lockout at Fort Morgan, Colo., enters fourth week with no resolution in sight

More than 1,700 Teamsters workers remain shut out of the Fort Morgan, Colo., beef plant as national union leadership steps in and wage-fixing allegations add a broader dimension to the dispute

What began as a contract dispute at Cargill's beef processing plant at Fort Morgan, Colo., has grown into one of the more consequential meatpacking labor standoffs in recent memory, with more than 1,700 workers now locked out for nearly three weeks, national Teamsters leadership on the ground, and allegations of industrywide wage coordination casting a shadow over negotiations that remain unresolved.

The lockout began May 20 after members of Teamsters Local 455 voted 1,388 to 252 — roughly 85% — to reject Cargill's contract offer. The company responded within hours, barring workers from the facility at 12:01 a.m. The plant's contract had expired Feb. 22, and negotiations had been underway for months before the vote. Cargill had already halted cattle slaughter at the plant on April 23, citing concerns that an unresolved dispute could create unsafe conditions during a live-animal processing shutdown.

At the center of the dispute is a five-year contract offer Cargill characterized as a $33.4 million investment in its workforce — fair and competitive, the company said. The union saw it differently. The proposed wage increases totaled $2.15 per hour over the life of the contract, a roughly 1.7% annual raise, and workers said the offer did little to address dangerous working conditions, healthcare costs, and the financial pressure of rising prices. Local 455 Secretary-Treasurer Dean Modecker called the lockout "a disgraceful move by a company that has long taken its workers for granted."

Cargill has framed its decision as a matter of operational safety. "The lockout was initiated because continued uncertainty around a potential work stoppage creates challenges for operating safely, responsibly and reliably," a company spokesperson said.

The company redirected cattle scheduled for Fort Morgan to its other facilities in Schuyler, Nebraska; Dodge City, Kansas; Friona, Texas; and Fresno, California, and has said it does not expect material impacts to producers or customers.

At full capacity, Fort Morgan processes around 4,700 head per day.

The human toll in Fort Morgan has been immediate. Cargill is the city's largest employer, and the locked-out workers represent nearly 20% of the city's population. Many of the workers — a workforce that includes large Haitian, Somali, and Central and South American immigrant communities — lost their company-provided health insurance on June 1. The Teamsters union has been paying locked-out members $1,250 per week out of Local 455 and International Brotherhood of Teamsters funds. Daily picket lines rotate through the plant entrance and a nearby public park, where workers carry signs reading "The Steaks Are High."

The dispute is unfolding against the backdrop of a turbulent stretch for Colorado meatpacking labor. In March, nearly 4,000 workers at the JBS USA plant in Greeley went on strike for three weeks — the largest US meatpacking strike in 60 years — before returning to work and ultimately ratifying a new agreement. Workers at a JBS subsidiary, Denver Processing, also authorized a strike. Now UFCW Local 7, which represents the JBS workers, has publicly sided with the Teamsters at Fort Morgan.

UFCW Local 7 added an explosive allegation to the mix: that Cargill structured its Fort Morgan wage proposal to mirror the terms JBS reached with UFCW workers in Greeley — in effect, asking workers at one plant to accept terms benchmarked to a settlement at a competing company's plant. The union called it wage-fixing, pointing to a $202.7 million class action settlement against JBS, Cargill, and other major meatpackers for alleged wage coordination. That settlement, UFCW Local 7 said, "is merely the tip of the proverbial iceberg." Cargill has not publicly addressed the wage-fixing characterization.

National Teamsters leadership has signaled this fight extends well beyond Fort Morgan. IBT General Secretary-Treasurer Fred Zuckerman traveled to the city recently, a move the union described as sending "a clear message to Cargill" that the lockout is bigger than any single plant. Bargaining sessions continued through late May and into June, but no new contract offer has been ratified.

The economic ripple effects on Fort Morgan itself are significant and will take time to fully measure. Cargill is the city's largest water and electricity user as well. The city manager has said Fort Morgan won't know the full sales tax revenue impact until data is compiled in early July.

Meanwhile, Cargill appeared to make headway elsewhere: workers at its Dodge City, Kansas, beef plant voted May 23 to ratify a new agreement with UFCW Local 2. That settlement may factor into ongoing Fort Morgan negotiations — though the union there has made clear it is not prepared to accept a deal that tracks what the Greeley JBS workers took home.

For cattle producers in the region, the idled Fort Morgan plant is a complication but not yet a crisis. Cargill's diversion of cattle to other facilities has absorbed the volume, and futures markets have not reacted sharply. Whether that holds depends on how long the standoff continues. A protracted lockout heading into the summer could begin to test the flexibility of Cargill's broader supply chain — and the patience of producers who had penciled in Fort Morgan as their delivery point.

USDA semi-annual report on European Union dairy industry

The 2026 European Union (EU) milk production is forecast to increase slightly to 152.8 million metric tons (MMT), from an estimated 152.7 MMT in 2025, despite declining cow numbers. Higher production observed in the first months of 2026 is forecast to slow down in the following months, as declining farm-gate milk prices paired with increasing costs of energy and fertilizers squeeze farmers’ profits. As a result, dairy processors will need to determine for which products they will use the available milk. Cheese production is forecast to remain the primary output goal of the EU dairy processing industry, supported by solid domestic consumption and export demand. EU27 cheese production is forecast to reach 11 MMT in 2026, up by 0.8 percent from 2025. However, this increase comes at the expense of the production of butter, skim milk powder, and whole milk powder.

China shifts livestock policy toward efficiency over expansion

Beijing’s new five-year plan prioritizes profitability, feed efficiency, and competitiveness as meat production growth slows

China's latest agricultural modernization plan signals a major shift in livestock policy, moving away from the rapid production growth that defined the past five years and toward a strategy centered on efficiency, profitability, and long-term competitiveness.

The 15th Five-Year Plan for Agricultural Modernization, released June 2, reflects lessons learned from a period of extraordinary livestock expansion. The previous plan targeted a 15% increase in annual meat production, from 77 million metric tons to 89 million metric tons by 2025. Chinese producers far exceeded that goal, pushing total meat production above 100 million metric tons last year.

While the surge strengthened domestic food supplies, it also created chronic oversupply across key livestock sectors. Pork and beef prices repeatedly fell to unprofitable levels as production outpaced consumption, forcing government intervention to stabilize markets and support producers.

The new plan takes a noticeably different approach. Rather than setting ambitious growth targets, Beijing now seeks to maintain annual meat production above 95 million metric tons. The target suggests policymakers are comfortable allowing production to retreat modestly from the record levels reached in 2025 if doing so improves industry profitability and market stability.

The pork sector remains at the center of China's livestock strategy. The plan calls for improved "production capacity regulation and control mechanisms" to keep pork supplies balanced and reduce the severe boom-and-bust cycles that have plagued the industry in recent years. Chinese officials appear increasingly focused on managing production levels to avoid the price collapses that have repeatedly hurt producers and required government intervention.

Beyond pork, the emphasis shifts away from expansion altogether. The plan highlights cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency gains across the broader livestock and poultry industries. The message from Beijing is that future success will be measured less by how much meat China produces and more by how efficiently and profitably it is produced.

One of the most significant elements of the plan for global agricultural markets is its continued focus on feed efficiency. China reaffirmed its goal of reducing feed usage by 7% on large-scale farms by 2030 compared to 2023 levels while maintaining production of meat, dairy, and eggs. The initiative is part of a broader effort to reduce dependence on imported feed ingredients and improve resource utilization throughout the livestock sector.

That development carries important implications for global grain and oilseed exporters. For decades, China's expanding livestock industry served as the primary engine of growth for world soybean demand. Massive imports of soybeans from Brazil, the United States, and Argentina helped support the country's rapidly growing pork, poultry, and aquaculture sectors.

The new plan suggests that era may be entering a more mature phase. If meat production stabilizes while feed efficiency improves, China's demand growth for soybeans and feed grains is likely to slow considerably. Over time, feed consumption could plateau or even decline despite stable levels of animal protein production.

For US agriculture, the plan reinforces a growing reality that China's role in global commodity markets is changing. Rather than being an ever-expanding source of feed demand, China increasingly appears focused on extracting more production from existing resources while reducing its reliance on imported inputs.

The strategy also has competitive implications. Beijing's emphasis on efficiency, quality, and cost reduction suggests China intends to strengthen the international competitiveness of its livestock sector. As production practices improve and costs decline, Chinese animal protein producers may become increasingly formidable competitors in regional and global markets.

Viewed through a broader policy lens, the livestock strategy is consistent with China's long-standing food security objectives. Beijing is not seeking to produce significantly more meat. Instead, it is trying to produce enough meat to ensure domestic food security while minimizing costs, improving profitability, reducing feed dependence, and enhancing the sector's global competitiveness.

For global agricultural markets, the takeaway is clear. The next chapter of China's livestock industry is likely to be defined not by rapid expansion but by optimization. That shift could moderate long-term growth in soybean and feed grain imports while creating a more efficient and competitive Chinese livestock sector capable of exerting greater influence on global protein markets.

Global food prices pause after three-month climb

FAO index slips in May as lower vegetable oil prices offset gains in cereals and sugar, but geopolitical and weather risks continue to threaten food inflation

Global food commodity prices edged slightly lower in May, ending a three-month streak of increases, according to the latest Food Price Index from the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The index slipped to 130.8 from 131.0 in April, reflecting what the agency described as a broadly stable global food market.

The modest decline was driven primarily by a 4.6% drop in vegetable oil prices, the first monthly decline for that category this year. Those losses offset higher prices for cereals and sugar, both of which posted notable gains during the month.

Despite the slight monthly easing, the FAO index remains 2.9% above its level a year ago, underscoring the persistent inflationary pressures facing global food markets.

Cereal prices rose 2.6% from April and are now nearly 5% higher than a year ago. The increase reflects growing concerns about weather-related production risks in key growing regions and ongoing uncertainty surrounding global grain supplies. Sugar prices surged 7.5% during May amid reports that a smaller share of Brazil's sugarcane crop will be directed toward sugar production, tightening export availability from the world's largest sugar producer.

Meat prices were essentially unchanged, rising just 0.1%, as weaker pork prices largely offset stronger beef values. The continued strength in beef markets reflects tight cattle supplies in several major exporting countries.

FAO officials cautioned that the apparent stability in food markets masks underlying vulnerabilities. Boubaker Ben-Belhassen, director of FAO's Markets and Trade Division, noted that rising cereal prices highlight the sensitivity of food markets to weather disruptions, energy costs, and agricultural input availability.

Particular attention is being paid to ongoing tensions in the Middle East and shipping disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged interference with trade through the waterway could disrupt fertilizer shipments and increase energy costs, potentially raising production expenses for farmers worldwide and placing renewed upward pressure on food prices.

The May data suggest that global food inflation has stabilized rather than retreated. While lower vegetable oil prices provided temporary relief, rising grain and sugar costs, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty and weather concerns, indicate that food markets remain vulnerable to fresh price spikes during the second half of the year. For consumers and policymakers alike, the report serves as a reminder that food inflation risks remain elevated even as headline commodity indices appear relatively stable.

US, Canada advance trade talks ahead of USMCA review

Canadian officials say discussions with the Trump administration have become increasingly substantive as both sides seek to resolve key trade disputes before the July 1 USMCA review, while Canada pushes to preserve market access and secure a long-term extension of the pact

Canada's Minister for US Trade, Dominic LeBlanc, said this week that Washington and Ottawa have engaged in "substantive" and "detailed" trade discussions in recent weeks, signaling renewed momentum in bilateral negotiations ahead of the scheduled review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Following a meeting with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, LeBlanc described the talks as productive and said Canada had presented specific proposals aimed at addressing longstanding US concerns while supporting the broader North American economy. 

The comments come amid pressure from the Trump administration, which has argued that Canada has not moved aggressively enough to resolve bilateral trade irritants. US officials have indicated that discussions with Mexico have advanced more quickly through a formal review process, although Canadian officials stressed that the absence of a formal structure does not diminish the importance of ongoing negotiations.

LeBlanc also confirmed that trade discussions that had stalled last year have effectively resumed, saying the pause that emerged after failed talks over steel, aluminum, energy and uranium issues is now behind both governments. He said he expects further engagement with Greer in the coming weeks as negotiators work toward potential agreements.

Canadian Chief Trade Negotiator Janice Charette emphasized that Ottawa is actively working to resolve issues in Canada's interest while also coordinating closely with Mexico to ensure that any separate US/Mexico arrangements do not undermine Canadian farmers, businesses or workers. Canada is seeking to maintain the broadest possible market access under USMCA and preserve exemptions for qualifying North American goods from various US tariff actions.

The discussions take on added significance as the Trump administration explores new trade enforcement measures. USTR this week proposed tariffs on numerous trading partners, including Canada, over concerns related to forced labor. However, goods traded under USMCA would remain exempt from the proposed duties, a carveout Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney highlighted while noting that Canada shares US concerns regarding forced labor and is preparing additional legislative measures to address the issue.

Meanwhile, as previously noted, Canada formally notified both the United States and Mexico that it supports extending USMCA for another 16 years. Under the agreement's review mechanism, the three countries may agree to renew the pact or allow it to move toward expiration after a 10-year period. Mexico has reportedly expressed support for an extension as well, while US officials continue to insist that key trade concerns must be addressed before Washington agrees to renew the agreement.

The tone of the recent discussions suggests both sides are attempting to avoid a disruptive trade confrontation ahead of the review, even as disputes over tariffs, autos, steel, aluminum and market access remain unresolved. The outcome of the negotiations will be closely watched by agricultural producers, manufacturers and exporters across North America, many of whom rely heavily on the stability and tariff-free access provided under USMCA.

USDA announces support for small US meat processors

USDA Secretary Rollins on Wednesday launched the Small Processors Action Plan (PDF, 2.3 MB), a new set of actions to support small and very small meat and poultry processing plants, improve customer service and reduce unnecessary regulatory burdens while maintaining strong food safety protections for consumers, said a USDA press release. “Additionally, Secretary Rollins announced that USDA is accepting applications for the fourth round of the Meat and Poultry Processing Expansion Program to expand American meat and poultry processing.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (6/5) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.6925. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.6925 (+0.0719). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.4400 and 40# blocks at $1.4725. The weekly average for barrels is $1.4400 (-0.0075) and blocks $1.4740 (-0.0141). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $2.0450. The weekly average for Grade A is $2.1160 (+0.0385). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.6700. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.6775 (-0.0138). 

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Stakeholders in the East region report domestic butter demand is strengthening. Stakeholders in the Central and West region report domestic butter demand is steady. Demand from international buyers varies throughout the country. Cream production is more than meeting needs. Cream demand from butter manufacturers is mixed. Butter production is generally stable, and churns are going seven days a week for many butter makers. Spot loads of 80 and 82 percent butterfat butter are available. Bulk butter overages range from 4 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions. 

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Eastern cheese production is steady with abundant Class III milk during the Northeast spring flush. Retail demand is stable, bulk demand is mixed, and inventories are balanced. Q1 US cheese exports increased, with mozzarella and cheddar gaining on price competitiveness. The market tone remains steady. Central region milk output is steady and up year-over-year. Spot Class III trades are lighter, ranging from $1 under to $2 over Class. Cheese plants are running full schedules, demand is steady, and export interest strong but softer than earlier this year. Western milk output is easing from spring highs, yet cheesemakers report ample milk. Spot milk demand is mixed. Cheese production and domestic demand are steady, with some sales shifting from food service to retail. International demand is mixed, and some manufacturers report tight spot inventories. 

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Milk supplies remain strong in New England, where the spring flush continues, while milk production in Southern states and much of the West is moving seasonally lower. Central region milk production is steady and continues trending above year ago levels. Class I demand is easing nationwide with schools transitioning into summer break, leading to reduced milk orders. Strong retail demand for ice cream continues supporting active Class II production, and processors in multiple regions are pulling heavily on available cream and excess milk to meet needs. Class III demand is steady across all regions, though East contacts note limited success finding condensed skim supplies. Class IV production is firm, with churns running steadily. Cream is readily available to meet scheduled production needs. Contacts in the West noted condensed skim readily available and demand steady. All Class cream multiples range from 1.15 – 1.44 in the East, 1.05 – 1.32 in the Midwest, and 1.05 – 1.27 in the West. 

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Nonfat dry milk prices were mostly lower in the Central and East regions across all heat levels, except for holding steady at the low end of the low/medium heat price range and a slight increase at the top of the high heat price range. In the West, prices declined sharply for all heat levels, with the largest decreases occurring at the lower end of the price ranges. Dry buttermilk prices held steady in the Central and East regions. In the West, the bottom of the mostly price range was unchanged while the remainder of the series moved lower. Dry whey prices were steady to higher, with the West region seeing gains throughout the price series. Lactose prices held steady amid continued strong demand and tight inventories. end of the price range and increased modestly at the upper end, while the mostly range strengthened on both ends. Dry whole milk prices strengthened at the bottom of the range and remained firm at the top. Acid and rennet casein prices were mostly steady, except for a significant increase at the upper end of the rennet casein price range. 

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS: WEST EUROPE: Dairy producers across parts of the UK are facing mounting financial pressure as farmgate milk prices fall below the cost of production, squeezing already thin margins and raising concerns about long-term farm viability. European dairy markets experienced a broad downturn in April as abundant milk supplies and weaker commodity values continued to pressure the sector. EAST EUROPE: Global milk production continued to expand in early 2026. Despite the recent surge, analysts suggest production growth may be approaching a plateau. OCEANIA: AUSTRALIA: Milk production data from Australia for April 2026 was recently released by Dairy Australia. This data shows total April 2026 milk production was 618.3 million liters, up 24.3 million liters (4.1 percent) year-over-year (YoY). The April 2026 Production Inputs Monitor Report from Dairy Australia shows, after a brief improvement in March, rainfall again declined across key dairying regions in April, with most areas recording below average totals. NEW ZEALAND: Stats NZ released their business price indexes this week for the March quarter of 2026, which showed the dairy farm expenses price index increased. Export data for New Zealand was recently released showing the value of milk powder, butter, and cheese exports increased 7.0 percent compared to April 2025. SOUTH AMERICA: Looking ahead, there is a high probability that El Niño will negatively impact milk production across major Latin American dairy regions this year. However, longstanding trade relationships should support ongoing export activity despite these weather-related challenges, prompting market participants to increase contract monitoring.