Weekly protein digest: NCBA debunks disease rumors, warns of market fallout from misinformation

21 March 2026

19 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

USDA delays poultry transparency rule, drawing Farm Bureau criticism

Contract growers warn postponement prolongs uncertainty over pay systems and investment risks

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is voicing strong disappointment after USDA delayed implementation of the Poultry Grower Payment Systems and Capital Improvement Systems final rule until Dec. 31, 2027.

AFBF President Zippy Duvall said the rule was intended to address longstanding concerns among contract poultry growers — particularly the use of “tournament-style” pay systems and requirements for costly on-farm upgrades without assurances those investments would be recovered.

Duvall argued the delay effectively sidelines growers for another year and a half, despite increasing calls for greater transparency in how poultry companies determine compensation. He emphasized that many producers believed progress was being made toward leveling the playing field.

The organization signaled it will use the upcoming public comment period to push the administration to prioritize farmers’ interests, warning that continued delays risk favoring large poultry integrators over the contract growers who supply the industry.

False disease rumors debunked — NCBA urges reliance on verified animal health information

Industry leaders warn misinformation threatens producer livelihoods and consumer confidence

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) is pushing back against online rumors alleging a new or unknown animal disease in a Texas Panhandle feedlot, calling the claims unequivocally false.

NCBA CEO Colin Woodall said federal and state animal health officials — including USDA and Texas authorities — have confirmed there is no evidence of any such disease. Industry groups, including the Texas Cattle Feeders Association, have also verified the absence of a health threat.

Woodall emphasized that spreading unverified information can have serious consequences, undermining cattle producers, disrupting the beef supply chain, and eroding consumer trust in the safety of US beef.

He underscored that the cattle industry relies on transparency, science-based animal health protocols, and close coordination with regulatory agencies to maintain herd health and food safety standards.

NCBA is urging producers, media, and the public to rely on credible, verified sources for information, noting that the organization and its state partners remain in close contact with animal health officials to monitor any legitimate concerns.

USDA moves to delay Biden-era poultry rule amid cost concerns

Proposed 18-month delay could save industry billions and reopen broader policy debate

USDA, through its Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), is proposing to delay implementation of the Biden-era Poultry Grower Payment Systems and Capital Improvement Systems rule until December 31, 2027, pushing back the original July 1, 2026, start date by 18 months. Link to Federal Register notice.

The rule, finalized in January 2025, imposed new restrictions on how livestock poultry dealers (LPDs) compensate growers, aiming to address fairness concerns in contract poultry production. However, USDA now argues the policy carries substantial economic and legal uncertainties that warrant further review.

Cost concerns drive delay proposal. AMS estimates the rule would impose significant financial burdens across the poultry sector:

• $4.9 billion annually in costs for LPDs during the first four years
• $249,000 per year per grower in additional costs
• Combined first-year industry cost: ~$5.2 billion

By delaying implementation:

• Year 1 savings: ~$5.2 billion
• Year 2 savings: ~$2.5 billion (LPDs) + $125,000 (growers)
• Total projected savings: ~$7.7 billion over two years

USDA noted that one-time setup and compliance preparation costs already incurred would not be affected by the delay.

Policy and legal uncertainty. AMS said the delay would allow for a more thorough evaluation of:

• The rule’s economic justification, given “no quantifiable benefits” identified in the final analysis
• Legal vulnerabilities, particularly around how compensation restrictions are structured
• Broader policy implications for contract poultry markets

The agency considered three options — no delay, a 12-month delay, and the proposed 18-month delay — ultimately favoring the longest timeline.

Congressional and political backdrop. The move aligns with direction from Congress, as the FY 2026 funding package included language encouraging USDA to postpone the rule’s implementation.

More broadly, the proposal reflects a wider push by the Trump administration to revisit and potentially unwind late-stage Biden-era regulations, particularly those affecting agricultural markets and contract systems.

What comes next: While the delay itself does not repeal the rule, it significantly reshapes the timeline and opens the door to:

• Substantive revisions to the rule’s structure
• Possible full reconsideration or replacement
• Continued industry and legal scrutiny

The outcome will depend on USDA’s reassessment of costs, legal risks, and stakeholder input — setting up a potentially major shift in how poultry grower contracts are regulated in the US

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net sales of 3,200 MT for 2026--a marketing-year low--were down 87 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (3,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Hong Kong (1,600 MT, including decreases of 1,000 MT), Taiwan (800 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Canada (400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Indonesia (200 MT), were offset by reductions for South Korea (3,600 MT), the Philippines (300 MT), Guatemala (300 MT), Mexico (100 MT), and Peru (100 MT). Exports of 13,600 MT were up 19 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,400 MT), Japan (4,100 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), Hong Kong (1,300 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT).

Pork: Net sales of 28,300 MT for 2026 were up 19 percent from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (7,500 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), South Korea (5,700 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), China (3,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (2,800 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), and Colombia (2,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for the Philippines (100 MT). Exports of 35,700 MT were down 8 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (15,200 MT), Japan (4,500 MT), South Korea (4,100 MT), China (3,300 MT), and Colombia (2,000 MT).

Mexico pivots to meat exports as US border closure reshapes cattle trade

Border disruption accelerates slaughterhouse investment, signaling longer-term competition for US producers

A prolonged closure of the US border to Mexican live cattle — triggered by concerns over the cattle borer pest — is driving a structural shift in Mexico’s livestock sector, with potentially lasting implications for US cattle markets.

According to Reuters reporting, Mexican ranchers and government officials are moving aggressively to modernize domestic processing capacity through a new Comprehensive Meat Production Program, backed by President Claudia Sheinbaum. The initiative aims to reduce reliance on live cattle exports and instead expand value-added meat production for export — including to the United States.

Key developments from the report

• ~400,000 head of cattle have been blocked from export due to the border closure
• Mexico is investing in US-certified slaughterhouses (beyond existing TIF standards)

Projects underway in Sonora, Durango, and Coahuila include:

• Expanded slaughter capacity (e.g., 300 → 450 head in Sonora facility)
• New cutting and deboning plants
• Feedlots, feed mills, and livestock auction infrastructure
• Public and private financing includes federal loans, state funding, and producer contributions
• Total investment in Sonora alone: ~460 million pesos (around $26 million)
• Mexico is explicitly shifting strategy from live cattle exports to processed beef exports

As one regional livestock leader put it: “We have to transition from being a live cattle exporting state to exporting finished products.”

Strategic implications for the US cattle sector

1) From complementary trade → direct competition

Historically, the US/Mexico cattle trade has been deeply integrated and complementary:

• Mexico exports feeder cattle, particularly into Texas and the Southern Plains
• US feedlots finish the cattle, supporting domestic packing capacity
• This shift threatens that model.

If Mexico builds USDA-equivalent, export-certified processing, it can:

• Bypass US feedlots entirely
• Export boxed beef instead of live animals
• Capture more of the value chain domestically

Upshot: That transforms Mexico from a supplier into a direct competitor in the US beef market.

2) Texas and border-state exposure

The risk is especially acute for Texas, which:

• Serves as the primary entry point for Mexican feeder cattle
• Hosts major feeding and packing infrastructure tied to cross-border flows

A sustained reduction in live imports could:

• Tighten feeder cattle supplies
• Raise input costs for US feedlots
• Reduce throughput for regional processors

At the same time, Mexican boxed beef exports into the US could:

• Compete directly with US-processed beef
• Pressure margins for domestic packers

3) Policy-driven industrialization in Mexico. This is not just a temporary adjustment — it is a policy-backed industrial strategy:

• Government credit programs target:
  • Breeding stock
  • Feeding operations
  • Slaughterhouse modernization\

Infrastructure is being built with redundancy in mind (“two exit routes”). The goal is resilience against future border disruptions. That suggests the shift could persist even after the border reopens.

4) Margin capture shifts south. The most important long-term implication is value capture:

• Under the old model:
  • Mexico exports lower-value live cattle
  • US captures finishing + processing margins

Under the new model:

• Mexico retains feeding + slaughter + processing
• US loses part of the value chain

This is similar to trends seen in:

• Brazil’s beef sector expansion
• Canada’s processing integration

Bottom Line: What began as a sanitary-driven border closure is accelerating a structural realignment of North American cattle trade.

In the short term: supply disruptions and price volatility

In the medium term: reduced US dependence on Mexican feeder cattle

In the long term: Mexico emerges as a more vertically integrated beef exporter — and a direct competitor to US producers and processors

For US policymakers and industry — particularly in Texas — the key question is no longer just when the border reopens, but whether the old trade model returns at all.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is being criticized by some for taking so long to open the border when some government officials have provided a plan that would involve four separate inspections for Mexican cattle crossing into the United States. Some observers say Rollins is choosing politics over other issues in this matter and doing long-term harm to the US beef sector. Rollins' defenders say she is keeping the border closed for scientific reasons, but naysayers continue to say the four-inspection plan should be adequate for safe entry of Mexican cattle.

USDA reports on European Union livestock sector

Report Highlights: Rising input costs, stringent regulations, and disease outbreaks are undermining the EU cattle sector’s viability, leading to projected declines in herd sizes and beef production by 2026. These supply constraints and restricted imports are driving up beef prices, which is subsequently curbing domestic consumption. Meanwhile, the swine sector is restructuring as oversupply and trade barriers cause prices to plummet, forcing a reduction in the pig crop and slaughter particularly across Western Europe. While internal pork consumption remains supported by these lower prices, overall EU exports are expected to face significant cuts due to disease-related bans. 

Price Drop Forces Swine Sector to Restructure Cattle and Beef – Mounting Regulations and Animal Diseases Are Paralyzing the Sector Herd Size and Calf Crop: Despite the high carcass, milk and beef prices, the herd size and calf crop are forecast to shrink in 2026. The dairy and beef cattle sector are losing their economic viability due to high input costs, an array of environmental and animal welfare regulations, and the further spread of animal diseases. 

Slaughter and Trade: Slaughter is projected to fall in 2026, as the supply of young animals is declining. Both EU internal and export sales of live animals are constrained by the further spread of animal diseases. Beef Production: In line with falling slaughter, EU beef production is forecast to decline in 2026, somewhat tempered by higher slaughter weights. Beef Domestic Sales and Trade: Restricted imports and falling domestic production are boosting beef prices and curbing beef consumption. 

Swine and Pork – The EU Swine Sector Is Facing a Restructuring in 2026 Herd Size and Pig Crop: As a result of a domestic pork oversupply, Chinese tariffs, and detection of African Swine Fever (ASF) in Spain, carcass prices have plummeted in the EU. Deteriorating profit margins are forecast to reduce the swine herd and pig crop in 2026. 

Slaughter and Trade: The lower piglet production will eventually press this year’s slaughter throughout the EU but mainly in Western Europe, whose sectors are under pressure driven by high input costs and environmental regulations. Pork Production: In line with lower slaughter, EU pork production will decline in 2026. However, Spanish pork banned by export markets will be redirected to the EU domestic markets. Pork Domestic Sales and Trade: The relatively low pork price is supporting consumption in Central and Southern Europe. EU pork exports will be significantly cut in 2026 as the gap left by the banned Spanish exports can only partially be substituted by other EU Member States.

Strike at major JBS beef plant raises concerns for cattle markets

Walkout at large Colorado processing facility threatens to disrupt slaughter capacity, pressure fed cattle prices and lift wholesale beef costs if the dispute drags on

A labor strike at a major beef processing plant owned by JBS in Greeley, Colorado is raising concerns across the cattle industry, with analysts warning that even a short disruption could ripple through fed cattle markets, packer margins and wholesale beef prices.

Roughly 3,800 workers at the plant — represented by the United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) Local 7 — walked out after contract negotiations stalled following months of talks between union leaders and the company. Union officials say workers overwhelmingly authorized the strike amid disputes over wages, health-care costs and workplace policies.

One of the nation’s largest beef plants. The Greeley facility is one of the largest beef slaughterhouses in the United States and typically processes about 5,000 to 6,000 head of cattle per day, making it a critical node in the national beef supply chain.

While the plant represents only a small share of overall US slaughter capacity — roughly 4% to 5% of daily throughput — disruptions can quickly affect regional cattle markets because feedlots rely on a steady flow of packing capacity to move market-ready animals.

JBS said it has offered a competitive contract and plans to continue operating the plant with available staff while shifting some production to other facilities to limit disruptions.

Short-term pressure on fed cattle. If the strike significantly reduces slaughter capacity, feedlots in surrounding states — including Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas — could face temporary bottlenecks.

With fewer cattle being processed, packers may reduce bids for fed cattle, putting short-term downward pressure on cash cattle prices in the region.

Feedlot operators may also be forced to hold cattle longer than planned, increasing feed costs and raising the risk of heavier weights that can trigger price discounts.

Boxed-beef prices could rise. Reduced processing volumes could tighten beef supplies, potentially pushing wholesale boxed-beef prices higher.

This dynamic — weaker cattle prices alongside stronger beef prices — has occurred during past plant disruptions, including the pandemic-era shutdowns in 2020. For packers, the result can be a margin squeeze, as reduced slaughter volumes limit revenue while higher beef prices do not fully offset lost throughput.

Futures markets are watching closely. Live cattle futures often react negatively when slaughter disruptions occur because the immediate impact is reduced demand for fed cattle. However, prices can rebound if wholesale beef values surge due to tighter supplies. Market participants will be watching closely to see whether other large packers — including Tyson Foods and Cargill — absorb some of the displaced cattle.

Broader industry implications. The strike comes at a sensitive time for the beef sector. The US cattle herd remains near multi-decade lows after years of drought-driven herd liquidation, leaving supplies tight and beef prices elevated. Because of those tight supplies, even localized processing disruptions can create volatility in cattle markets and beef prices.

Analysts say the key factor will be the duration of the strike. A brief disruption may have limited national impact, while a prolonged stoppage could tighten beef supplies and amplify market volatility across the industry.

US Pork exports open 2026 strong as Mexico leads growth; beef variety meat values hit record

Solid pork demand and high-value beef byproducts offset weaker beef volumes amid continued China market disruption 

US pork exports began 2026 on a strong footing, rising modestly year-over-year in January as robust demand from Mexico and other key markets supported shipments, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

January pork exports totaled 250,861 metric tons, up 3% from a year earlier, while export value increased 4% to $692.1 million. Mexico again led growth, with additional year-over-year gains to Japan, South Korea, Canada, Central America, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, ASEAN markets and Taiwan, underscoring broad international demand for US pork.

Beef exports, however, were lower than a year ago, largely due to the prolonged market disruption in China. January shipments totaled 92,558 metric tons, down 10% year-over-year, though export value declined only 3% to $780.1 million as higher prices helped offset the drop in volume.

Despite the reduced shipments, export value per head of fed slaughter exceeded $415, the highest level since March. USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom said the strong per-head value reflects continued demand across other global markets even while China remains largely absent.

Excluding China, the data show a stronger underlying performance. Without China in the comparison, beef export volume increased 5% and export value climbed 16%, with shipments rising to South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Caribbean, ASEAN markets and South America, while export value also improved to Mexico, Canada and Central America.

One of the most notable bright spots came from beef variety meats, which posted exceptional growth. January exports reached 27,511 metric tons, up 6% from a year ago and the largest total in more than four years. Export value surged 46% to a record $126 million, surpassing the previous monthly record set in December.

The strong performance in variety meats and resilient demand across multiple markets helped offset the China disruption, reinforcing the importance of diversified export destinations for US beef and pork producers.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (3/13) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.8475. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.8930 (-0.1695). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.5300 and 40# blocks at $1.5300. The weekly average for barrels is $1.5390 (-0.0230) and blocks $1.5465 (-0.0305). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.7650. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.7280 (+0.0640). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.6600. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.6460 (+0.0140). 

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Stakeholders in the West region report steady or stronger domestic butter demand. Stakeholders in the Central and East region report strong domestic butter demand. Export demand is strong, but disruptions are negatively impacting sales or deliveries in some cases. Spot cream volumes are available. Some butter manufacturers are bringing loads into their plants. Butter production schedules are heavily active preparing for upcoming spring holidays. 80 and 82 percent butterfat butter loads are available, but spot inventories of 82 percent butterfat butter are tight. Bulk butter overages range from 5 cents below to 10 cents above market across all regions. 

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Northeast retail cheese demand continues to grow, with contacts noting strong sales are supporting higher volumes of cheese production. Cheese inventories are generally balanced, and some manufacturers continue to export bulk products to prevent inventory buildup. Central region cheese production remains active aside from some maintenance downtime. Curd demand is steady to stronger while barrel demand is unchanged. Retail interest is solid and food service orders trail year-ago levels. Export demand is strong, but contacts are watching rising freight costs. Western cheese manufacturers continue to run active production schedules as milk supplies remain readily available. Cheese availability varies by producer commitments, with mozzarella noted as tighter amid heavy contract obligations for some manufacturers. Domestic cheese demand ranges from light to moderately strong, with retail outpacing food service, while international interest holds mostly steady. 

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Nationwide, milk production is seasonally strong. Favorable weather conditions are contributing to higher milk volumes. Contacts indicate that milk fat levels are down slightly from last month, but still higher overall compared to previous years. Class I demand is steady, but demand is expected to drop slightly with many educational institutions taking spring break in the coming weeks. Class II demand is growing. As the temperatures increase and the spring holidays approach, ice cream mixes and other Class II products are in increased production. Class III demand is steady. Spot volumes of milk are available for Class III use. Class III spot milk prices range from $5-under to flat, down from last week. Class IV demand is strong. Butter makers are operating full production schedules to meet current domestic and international demand. With powder prices remaining high, drying operations are running busy schedules. Condensed skim availability is tight this week, predominantly due to powder taking priority. Condensed skim sales were going $0.20 - $0.30 over Class price. Cream multiples for all Classes range:1.10 -- 1.38 in the East; 1.05 -- 1.32 in the Midwest; 0.90 – 1.29 in the West. 

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Nonfat dry milk prices strengthened across all regions, holding firm at the upper end of the range for all heat classes in the Central and East and at the low/medium heat levels in the West. The largest gain occurred at the bottom of the Central and East price range. Tight spot inventories continue to limit trading activity. Dry buttermilk prices were mixed. The Central and East regions saw increases at the top of the range, while the West posted gains at the low end. Prices held steady at the lower end in the Central and East and at the upper end in the West. The West mostly price range narrowed, with a slight uptick at the bottom and a small decline at the top. Dry whey markets were also mixed: Central prices slipped across most of the range except for stability at the top of the mostly range; West prices held firm at the low end and strengthened at the high end as the mostly range widened; Northeast prices edged down at the low end and were unchanged at the top. Lactose markets were steady aside from a modest increase at the mostly minimum. Inventories remain tight and prices continue to sit well above year ago levels. Whey protein concentrate 34% prices were mixed as the lower end of the range moved higher and the upper end eased slightly, leaving the range mostly unchanged. Dry whole milk prices moved higher across the full range, supported by recent strength in butter and nonfat dry milk. Acid and rennet casein prices were unchanged. 

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS: 

WEST EUROPE: The UK-based Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), recently released a report showing February milk deliveries in Great Britain were 986 million liters, the highest February on record, and up 3.7 percent from a year earlier. Retail dairy sales data released by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) showed milk sales were down in the 12 weeks ending February 21st compared to a year ago, while spending increased 7.2 percent. 

EAST EUROPE: An association representing Turkish milk producers is requesting that the government take steps to suspend imports of milk and dairy products and to increase tariffs on imported goods, amid economic challenges in the country. In Belarus, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food recently published new rules regarding the minimum price for milk delivered to other countries. 

OCEANIA: AUSTRALIA: A report titled Stories of Sustainable Progress by the Australian Dairy Products Federation (ADPF) details Australia's dairy sector reporting strong sustainability gains, including a 34.5 percent drop in emissions intensity since 2010/11 and diverting 85 percent of waste from landfills. 

NEW ZEALAND: DairyNZ recently released their quarterly economic update. The 2025/2026 season shifted decisively into a high cashflow position, driven by a strong milk price, solid on-farm production, and a substantial one off cash injection following a major New Zealand dairy cooperative's planned divestment and special dividend. 

SOUTH AMERICA: Milk production in South America is seasonally steady to light, compared to previous months. Year over year milk production is stronger in most countries. Contacts indicate South American suppliers are sold out of milk powders through May/June. South American exports are expected to take priority in Algeria and other countries due to potentially longer lead times from Oceania.