Weekly protein digest: US Dietary guidelines changes shifts spotlight to beef and animal protein

16 January 2026

14 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

Lean hog futures bulls stepped up when they had to do so… February lean hog futures on Wednesday rose $1.075 to $85.70. Lean hog futures saw the bulls step in to do some perceived bargain hunting following this week’s dip—and also keep alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls are still concerned about a weakening cash hog market and CME lean hog index recently. The latest CME lean hog index is down 10 cents to $80.50. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 11 cents at $80.39. Wednesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $68.56.

Trump touts milk

President Trump has signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act in the Oval Office alongside US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins, US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., USDA National Nutrition Advisor Dr. Ben Carson, dairy farmers, moms, and bipartisan members of Congress to restore access to whole milk in schools and strengthen support for American dairy producers.

This legislation advances the Trump Administration’s agenda and aligns with the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2025–2030, released last week, which reintroduced full-fat dairy as part of a healthy dietary pattern. “Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, whole milk is back – and it’s the right move for kids, for parents, and for America’s dairy farmers,” said USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins. “This bipartisan solution to school meals alongside the newly released Dietary Guidelines for Americans reinforces what families already know: nutrient dense foods like whole milk are an important part of a healthy diet.”

US consumer price index food index increased 3.1% over the last year.

The US CPI index for food rose 0.7% in December as did the index for food at home. Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased in December. The index for other food at home rose 1.6% over the month. The cereals and bakery products index increased 0.6% in December. The index for fruits and vegetables increased 0.5% and the index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 0.4%. The dairy and related products index rose 0.9% in December. In contrast, the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs decreased 0.2% in December, as the index for eggs fell 8.2%.

The food away from home index also rose 0.7% in December. The index for full service meals rose 0.8% over the month and the index for limited service meals increased 0.6%.

The index for food at home rose 2.4% over the 12 months ending in December. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index rose 3.9% over the last 12 months. The index for other food at home increased 2.7% over the same period and the index for nonalcoholic beverages rose 5.1%.

The cereals and bakery products index increased 1.5% over the 12 months ending in December. The index for fruits and vegetables rose 0.5% over the year. In contrast, the dairy and related products index decreased 0.9% over the same period.

The food away from home index rose 4.1% over the last year. The index for full service meals rose 4.9% and the index for limited service meals rose 3.3% over the same period.

Make America More Ground Beef: a voluntary dairy-to-beef supply proposal

Concept aims to channel surplus dairy cattle into ground beef, but faces steep political, budget and industry hurdles

The “Make America More Ground Beef” (MAMGB) proposal surfaced via social media outlines a voluntary, farmer-first concept that would allow US dairy producers to monetize surplus dairy-origin cattle by moving more animals into the beef supply chain — specifically the ground beef market. Framed as a market-oriented response to tight beef supplies and high grocery prices, the idea is being floated as a potential UUSDA initiative that could launch as early as spring if approved.

How the proposal would work: Under the concept, participating dairy operations would divert additional dairy-origin cattle — animals that might otherwise be culled or marketed at lower value — into beef processing channels. The program’s designers estimate it could redirect 800,000 to 1 million head in spring 2026, translating into roughly 900 million to 1.1 billion pounds of lean trim for the ground beef market.

The stated goals are threefold:

1. Support dairy farm income by creating a clearer outlet for surplus cattle
2. Increase domestic beef availability, particularly lean trim used in ground beef
3. Ease retail price pressure for consumers without imposing mandates

Participation would be entirely voluntary, open to all US dairy operations regardless of size or geography, and structured as an opt-in program rather than a regulatory requirement.

Why implementation odds are low. Despite its straightforward framing, the proposal faces long odds of moving beyond the concept stage:

•  No clear statutory authority: USDA would likely need either new congressional authorization or creative use of existing commodity or market-support authorities — both politically difficult.
• Budget constraints: Any incentive-based structure would require funding at a time when farm bill negotiations and discretionary spending caps are already strained.
• Industry resistance: Beef producers and packers may push back against policies that materially alter cattle flows or price relationships, while dairy groups may be split on whether the economics truly pencil out.
• Market distortion concerns: Critics are likely to argue that artificially steering cattle into beef channels risks unintended consequences for prices, regional basis, and long-term herd dynamics.

Bottom Line: MAMGB reflects real frustration with tight beef supplies and weak dairy margins, and it highlights how intertwined the two sectors have become. But absent strong White House backing, congressional buy-in, and industry consensus, the proposal is far more likely to serve as a policy conversation starter than a program that is implemented.

The concept of taking milking cows and sending them to market is not new. The infamous Whole Herd Buyout run by the government in the mid-1980s accomplished that goal of reducing cow numbers to reduce milk output and boost milk prices. But it also came at great cost to the cattle industry as it was the government effectively putting far more beef into the pipeline than the current beef herd was producing.

Over the years, there have been private-run efforts that have attempted to do the same thing — Cooperatives Working Together in particular. But even those efforts were the subject of lawsuits, etc., and were eventually terminated.

Thus, to have this kind of an option, even if voluntary, would still have the government seeking to build beef supplies which would likely send prices for cattle downward and put economic pressure on the cattle industry at a time when they have seen talk of lowering tariffs or boosting beef imports send prices lower.

Cattlemen have taken exception to bringing in more beef and this would potentially see them dump President Trump if they did it, even if it is a voluntary program. And the notation that USDA needs to hear from dairymen. What about cattlemen — beef producers. They need to hear from them too. 

USDA final rule details OBBBA changes to ARC, PLC, and Dairy Margin Coverage

Federal Register notice locks in multi-year updates to crop and dairy safety-net programs, with revised reference prices, extended authorizations through 2031, and higher Tier 1 dairy coverage 

USDA has published a final rule in the Federal Register (link) implementing changes to key farm safety-net programs authorized under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), formalizing updates to Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC), Price Loss Coverage (PLC), and Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC).

ARC and PLC: USDA said OBBBA authorizes modifications for the 2025 crop year and extends both ARC and PLC for 2026 through 2031. The final rule updates provisions tied to reference prices and effective reference prices, base acres, program elections, and payment provisions, reflecting the statute’s adjustments to how benefits are calculated and administered.

Dairy Margin Coverage: The rule also extends DMC authority through 2031, giving participating dairy operations the option to establish a new production history. In a notable expansion, Tier 1 coverage increases by 1 million pounds to a 6-million-pound limit, while eligibility for multi-year (lock-in) contracts is preserved through December 30, 2031.

Administrative updates and timing: Beyond programmatic changes, USDA noted minor administrative updates across ARC, PLC, DMC, and other regulations that apply to multiple Farm Service Agency programs. The Office of Management and Budget reviewed the final rule between Dec. 5–29, 2025. Implementation timelines for 2025 and beyond have been outlined by USDA’s Farm Service Agency, setting the stage for enrollment and operational changes under the updated framework.

Global food prices slide for fourth month as dairy, meat weigh on index

FAO index hits lowest level since January 2025 despite higher annual average driven by oils and dairy

World food prices fell for a fourth straight month in December, pressured primarily by declines in dairy, meat and vegetable oil prices, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 124.3 points in December, down from 125.1 in November and 2.3% lower than a year earlier, marking its lowest monthly level since January 2025.

Despite the late-year easing, the index averaged 127.2 points for full-year 2025, up 4.3% from 2024, as higher prices for vegetable oils and dairy more than offset declines in cereals and sugar.

Dairy prices fell 4.4% in December, led by a sharp drop in butter prices following increased cream availability in Europe. Still, dairy prices averaged 13.2% higher for 2025, reflecting strong import demand and constrained export supplies earlier in the year.

Meat prices slipped 1.3% in December — driven by bovine and poultry — yet remained 5.1% higher year over year, supported by firm global demand and ongoing animal disease and geopolitical risks.

Vegetable oil prices edged down 0.2% in December to a six-month low as weaker soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil prices offset gains in palm oil. For 2025 overall, however, the vegetable oil index averaged 17.1% higher than 2024, reaching a three-year high amid tight global supplies.

In contrast, the FAO cereal price index rose 1.7% in December, with wheat supported by renewed concerns over Black Sea export flows and maize buoyed by strong ethanol production in Brazil and the United States. Even so, cereals averaged 4.9% lower for 2025, marking a third consecutive annual decline and the lowest annual average since 2020.

Dietary guidelines spark food fight as Kennedy targets sugar, embraces full-fat foods

New federal nutrition guidance reshapes school meals, SNAP rules, and military food programs — drawing praise from meat and dairy groups and sharp criticism from some health advocates

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. declared that the long-running “war on saturated fats is over,” shifting the focus of the new Dietary Guidelines toward a crackdown on added sugars and a strong discouragement of ultraprocessed foods. Kennedy blamed decades of corporate influence and prior administrations for promoting highly processed diets that have fueled US obesity rates, while emphasizing that the guidelines were developed with input from groups including the American Medical Association and the American Academy of Pediatrics.

“The new guidelines recognize that whole, nutrient-dense food is the most effective path to better health and lower health care costs,” Kennedy said. “Protein and healthy fats are essential, and were wrongly discouraged in prior dietary guidelines.” He added: “We are ending the war on saturated fats. Our government declares war on added sugar today.”

The guidelines do not change limits on saturated fats but do encourage eating “healthy fat,” which they say includes beef tallow and butter as well as olive oil.  They also include a new, inverted food pyramid, emphasizing the consumption of fruits and vegetables along with protein, dairy, and “healthy fats,” to replace the MyPlate chart that had previously provided visual guidance for American diets.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the new guidelines will be applied broadly across federal programs, triggering rewrites of school meal standards, food served to the military and veterans, meals in federal prisons, the Head Start program, and purchasing rules under the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC). Rollins also announced plans to overhaul the SNAP “stocking rule,” which governs what the more than 250,000 SNAP-authorized retailers must carry — changes she said are especially important for convenience stores that serve as primary food outlets in low-income neighborhoods.

The guidelines do not define ultra-processed or highly processed foods, but warn about foods that are salty or sweet, sugar-sweetened beverages, artificial flavors, petroleum-based dyes, artificial preservatives, and low-calorie non-nutritive sweeteners in food and drink.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (12/26) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.3000. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.3250 (-0.0706). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.4000 and 40# blocks at $1.3150. The weekly average for barrels is $1.4000 (N.C.) and blocks $1.3420 (-0.0318). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2650. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.2215 (+0.0477). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.7000. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.7080 (-0.0220). 

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Stakeholders described domestic butter demand this week as stronger in the East region, steady in the Central region, and steady or strong in the West region. Export butter demand is steady in the East region and strong elsewhere in the country. Cream loads are readily available for Class IV manufacturers. Spot cream load demand from butter makers is mixed. Butter churning is busy as butter makers are running strong production seven days a week. Although some butter producers convey their inventories are lower than they would like, 80 percent butterfat butter loads are available. 82 percent butterfat butter loads are tight. Bulk butter overages range from 2 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions. 

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: In the East region, cheese production remains balanced as plants run steady schedules following the holiday period. Retail demand is holding firm, while bulk movement remains softer. Inventories are manageable, and export interest is steady. Across the Central region, milk output is strong, and spot volumes are readily available as operations normalize. Cheesemakers continue to run full schedules to absorb available milk supplies. Domestic cheese demand is steady, with barrel movement improving, while curd sales lag. Export interest remains steady, and spot cheese loads are available. Cheese activity in the West is steady as manufacturers receive contractual milk volumes and maintain consistent production schedules. Spot milk availability is adequate, though demand for additional loads remains light. Retail demand is steady to slightly lighter, while export demand holds steady with limited spot tightness for select varieties. 

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Farm level milk output is seasonally strong nationwide. Milk is considered plentiful by contacts in several regions. Milkfat levels are higher than this time last year and are providing ample amounts of cream for the market. Bottling production is resuming normal operations as educational institutions restart classes, tightening the spot market for milk, though spot loads are still readily available. Class II operations increased in some regions. Contacts reported an increase in spot purchases of cream for Class II. Class III production is steady to strong nationwide. Most cheesemakers are utilizing milk from within their network and are not actively purchasing spot volumes. Class III spot milk prices range from $5-under to $1 under Class. Class IV production is strong. Many butter plants are operating at or near full capacity. Many facilities are prioritizing drying non-fat dry milk amid higher demands and increased prices. Spot loads of cream are readily available in each region. Condensed skim demand improved this week, and spot loads are readily available. The bottom of the price range rose to $0.80 while the top of the range stayed at flat Class price. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 1.00 – 1.25 in the East; 0.80 – 1.22 in the Midwest; 0.85 – 1.13 in the West. 

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are trending higher this week, though the bottom of the price range was unchanged in the Central and East regions. Stakeholders noted stronger demand and tighter spot load availability. Dry buttermilk prices held steady in the West and price movements are mixed in the Central and East regions. For some manufacturers, dry buttermilk production is taking a back seat to NDM production. Dry whey prices are higher for the bottom ends of the Central and East region ranges. Prices for the top end of all three regions held steady. Dry whey inventories continue to be tight. Lactose prices increased this week. Stronger Q1 contractual sales activity is reported. Whey protein concentrate 34% prices are higher for the top of the range. Spot inventories narrowed this week. Dry whole milk prices were unchanged. Demand remained light. Acid and rennet casein prices were unchanged as well. Demand from buyers in some international regions is strengthening. 

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The Pennsylvania and Vermont Monthly Organic Dairy Reports covering October 2025 were released, in both states the weighted average price for fluid milk was up from September, while the total volumes produced were down. Data released for October 2025 from FAS showed organic milk categorized as HS-10 code 0401201000 export volumes were down from the previous month, but up from October 2024. A cooperative announced that their January organic milk pay price in the UK is up slightly from the previous month. Organic dairy ads increased in the Week 1 retail survey. The two most advertised organic commodities, milk and yogurt, appeared in more ads this week, while ads declined for every other organic commodity present in last week's survey. 

NOVEMBER DAIRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS (NASS): Butter production was 180 million pounds, 2.2 percent above November 2024 but 3.4 percent below October 2025. American type cheese production totaled 474 million pounds, 5.6 percent above November 2024 but 3.7 percent below October 2025. Total cheese output (excluding cottage cheese) was 1.22 billion pounds, 5.9 percent above November 2024 but 3.4 percent below October 2025. Nonfat dry milk production, for human food, totaled 108 million pounds, 9.8 percent below November 2024, and 10.2 percent below October 2025. 

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Conventional dairy ads are up 1 percent in the Week 2 retail survey, and organic ads increased 49 percent. Cheese, the most advertised conventional commodity, appeared in 7 percent fewer ads this week. The most advertised commodity in the organic aisle is milk, and ads are up 90 percent. The week 2 organic premium for gallon milk is $5.08.