USDA projects record US corn harvest this fall
Grain glut to pressure farmers, aid livestock feed
16 September 2025
2 minute read
By: US farmers will reap a record corn crop this autumn, eclipsing the previous record set two years ago by nearly 1.5 billion bushels after harvesting their largest acreage in 92 years, Reuters reported, citing the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The massive crop is due to swell US supplies of the grain by 59% to a seven-year high even as exports are projected to reach record levels, the USDA said in a monthly supply-and-demand report.
The grain glut is likely to weigh on the farm economy. US growers have already been struggling with low crop prices and rising costs for inputs such as fertiliser and seeds. Cash crop receipts adjusted for inflation are forecast at the lowest level since 2007.
Heftier supplies, however, would benefit livestock producers that use the crop for feed, along with ethanol producers.
The USDA lowered its corn yield forecast on Friday but total production rose as it increased its estimate for how many acres will be harvested. In August it surprised grain traders with a large acreage increase.
"It didn't matter that USDA reduced the corn yield, because of the amount of corn acreage they found," said Susan Stroud, founder and analyst at No Bull Agriculture.
Chicago Board of Trade corn futures shrugged off the harvest outlook as traders anticipated that the USDA could trim its forecasts in upcoming reports.
The USDA raised its 2025 US corn production estimate to a record 16.814 billion bushels. It projected a record average yield of 186.7 bushels per acre, down from 188.8 bushels per acre in August. Both figures were above analysts' expectations.
Favorable crop weather for much of the summer growing season boosted yield prospects until pockets of disease and dry late-season weather clipped potential, analysts said.
End-of-season US corn stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year were projected at 2.11 billion bushels, down slightly from the USDA's forecast a month earlier but still the largest since the 2018/19 season.
For soybeans, the USDA projected US yield at a slightly higher-than-expected 53.5 bushels per acre, compared with 53.6 bushels in August. It pegged production at 4.301 billion bushels, up from 4.292 billion bushels a month earlier as the agency increased harvested acres.
The agency raised its US soybean ending stocks forecast by 10 million bushels after cutting its export projection to the lowest since a US trade war with top-importer China during President Donald Trump's first term.
Export sales have slumped again due to a renewed trade dispute with Beijing, which has not yet booked any new-crop purchases from the US.
