WASDE Report Bearish for Soybeans, Slightly Bullish for Corn, Neutral Wheat

ANALYSIS - Corn futures initially moved to a new contract low in the wake of Tuesday's USDA supply and demand and crop production report - but mainly due to a sell-off in the soybean futures market following the data.
calendar icon 12 August 2014
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Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

The government forecast the US average corn yield at 167.4 bushels per acre, which was below the pre-report expectation of 170 bushels per acre.

The total US corn crop was forecast at a record 14.032 billion bushels, which was below trade expectations of 14.25 billion bushels.

USDA placed new-crop corn carryover at 1.808 billion bushels, which was below an expected 2.0 billion bushels.

Soybean futures were sharply lower in the wake of larger-than-expected ending US soybean stocks as reported by USDA. The Ag Department left its projected 2013-14 crop ending stocks unchanged at 140 million bushels. The trade expected USDA to lower the figure to 136 million bushels.

The government also forecast a larger-than-expected 2014-15 soybean carryover projection, at 430 million bushels, which was around 15 million bushels above expectations. USDA put the 2014 US soybean crop at a record 3.816 billion bushels, which is slightly lower than expectations of 3.823 billion bushels. The US average yield was set at 45.4 bushels per acre, versus trade expectations of 45.6 bushels per acre.

Wheat futures were lower on spillover pressure from soybeans and corn futures, as the USDA report came in about as expected on wheat. USDA forecast the all US wheat crop at 2.03 billion bushels, up slightly from expectations of 2.01 billion bushels. USDA put 2014-15 carryover at 663 million bushels, in line with trade expectations.

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