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NCBA: Low Cattle Inventory May Turn Around

07 February 2011

US - Speaking at the Cattle-fax Conference at the 2011 NCBA Convention and Trade Show, Kevin Good, Cattle-Fax Senior Market Analyst said that it is likely the US cattle herd will start to expand within the next two years. Charlotte Johnston, TheCattleSite Editor reports.

After 13 years of a declining cow herd, it is expected that the national cow herd will begin to stabilise in 2012, as liquidation of the cow herd stops in the next 12 to 14 months, he said.

Signs that liquidation has already begun to slow down are evident through the fewer number of cattle being slaughtered.

Mr Good predicts that fed steer and heifer slaughter will be one million head smaller in 2011, equating to an additional 4,000 head drop daily.

He suspects that the record high prices producers are seeing at the moment will be responsible for higher cow retention.

Mr Good expects these record high prices to continue for the next two years, as domestic and global beef supplies become tight.

Although good for cow-calf producers and finishers, stockers may see their margins squeezed as input prices continue to rise.

TheCattleSite News Desk



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