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USDA: Crop Report

09 June 2010

US - The entire US soybean crop is nearly planted while corn is mostly emerged. Both crops get exceptional ratings in Monday's USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report.

Corn

For corn, 94 per cent of the crop has emerged, well above a 85 per cent year ago average and a 91 per cent five-year average, reports AgricultureOnline. USDA rated the corn crop as 76 per cent good/excellent, 19 per cent fair, and five per cent very poor-poor.

Shawn McCambridge, Prudential Bache Commodities LLC senior grain analyst says the market will see this report as bearish. "What will really standout is just how exceptionally strong of a rating this crop is getting. We have early planting and now good crop ratings."

McCambridge adds, "This week's report is showing some trouble spots in state's like Missouri. But, that state's 49 per cent good/excellent corn rating is improving."

Overall, even though the USDA already expects an above trendline yield for this year's corn crop, the market may start thinking about even higher yields with crop condition reports like Monday's, McCambridge says. "But, I don't expect the USDA to raise its yield estimates in its Supply/Demand report Thursday."

Soybeans

For soybeans, USDA rated the crop 75 per cent good/excellent, 21 per cent fair, and four per cent very poor-poor. Also, 66 per cent of the soybean crop has emerged, sharply higher than a year ago average of 52 per cent, and higher than a five-year average of 64 per cent. USDA says 84 per cent of the crop is planted, a pace above 76 per cent from a year ago, and equal to the five-year average.

McCambridge says that even though this week's report is good, there are a lot of growing days left in the season. "We don't start getting actual field surveys until the August monthly USDA report. "I don.t think USDA will start raising yield estimates right away. If we continue to see favorable weather, maybe we could see higher yield estimates in July. It's important though we don't get ahead of ourselves on this crop."

Wheat

For winter wheat, USDA reported three per cent of the crop has been harvested, slightly behind four per cent from a year ago, and a six per cent five-year average. The crop is rated 66 per cent good/excellent, 25 per cent fair, and nine per cent very poor-poor. Also, 84 per cent of the winter wheat is headed, equal to a year ago.

In its report, USDA estimated the spring wheat as 90 per cent emerged, vs. 82 per cent a year ago, and a 94 per cent average. Also, the crop is rated 84 per cent good/excellent, 15 per cent fair, and one per cent very poor-poor.

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