Weekly US Cattle Outlook - Corn Crop Production Up

US - Weekly Cattle Outlook, 17th August 2007 - Weekly review of the US cattle industry, written by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.
calendar icon 20 August 2007
clock icon 4 minute read

Cattle producers received good news on Friday August 10 with the August 1 release of Crop Production. The 2007 U.S. corn crop was estimated at 13.1 billion bushels — up 24 percent from 2006. The U.S. 2007 corn yield per acre was estimated at 152.8 bushels per acre — up 3.7 bushels per acre from last year.

With a 13.1 billion bushel corn crop, carryover following the 2007-2008 marketing year is estimated at 1.516 billion bushels — up from an estimate of 1.137 billion bushels following the 2006-2007 marketing year.

The USDA estimate of corn price per bushel for the 2007-2008 marketing year of $2.80-3.40, with a midpoint estimate for corn prices at $3.10 per bushel, would be up $0.10 per bushel for the 2006-2007 marketing year.

The 2007 August 1 U.S. soybean crop was estimated at 2.63 billion bushels — down 18 percent from the 2006 crop. The U.S. estimated soybean yield for 2007 is 41.5 bushels per acre and the Missouri yield was estimated at 37 bushels per acre. Remember, August weather is very important as to soybean yield. Therefore, substantial change could occur in soybean production from the August 1 estimate.

The USDA August 1 estimate is for the 2007-2008 marketing year ending stock to decline to 220 million bushels from the estimated 575 million bushels for the 2006-2007 marketing year ending stock.

With this much decline in ending stocks, the 2007-2008 estimated soybean price of $7.25-8.25 per bushel is up 21 percent for the midpoint estimate of $7.75 per bushel from the 2006-2007 estimate of $6.40 per bushel.

The good news for cattle producers is the estimated 2007-2008 soybean meal price estimate of $200-230 per ton. This is only up, at the midpoint estimate of $215 per ton, about $5 per ton from the past year.

With the large increase in distillers grains, the cost of feed for producing fed cattle this coming year probably will be fairly close to the past year.

Retail Choice beef in July was down 1.8 percent from one month earlier at $4.143 per lb, but up 6.8 percent from a year earlier.

The average of the trade estimates is for cattle on feed August 1 to be down 3.9 percent from a year earlier. The number of cattle placed on feed during July is estimated to be down 13.1 percent from the quite large placements in July 2006. Fed marketings during July are estimated to be up 2.6 percent from 12 months earlier.

Beef exports for January-June are up 19.2 percent from 12 months earlier. Beef exports during June were up 24.9 percent from 12 months earlier.

Feeder steers and heifers at Oklahoma City were mostly steady this week with a week earlier. Steer and heifer calves were $1-3 per cwt lower than 7 days earlier.

The range in prices by weight groups for medium and large frame Number One steers were: 500-600 pounds $123.50-131.50, 600-650 pound calves $110-118 per cwt, 600-700 pound yearlings $118-128 per cwt, 700-800 pounds $113.50-123 per cwt and 800-1,000 pounds $105-116 per cwt.

Wholesale beef prices Friday morning showed Choice beef at $143.91 per cwt, down $0.10 per cwt from a week earlier. Select beef was up $0.37 per cwt at $138.54 per cwt.

The weighted average live price for fed cattle for five-market area through Thursday at $90.24 per cwt was down $0.26 from a week earlier. Weighted average carcass prices for the five-market area were down $0.63 per cwt at $142.15 per cwt through Thursday.

Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 667 thousand head, down 3.2 percent from a year earlier.

The August 1 Cattle of Feed report came in a bit more positive than the trade reports. The number on feed was 0.9 percentage points below trade estimates at 95.2 percent of last year. Placements were at 82.8 percent of last year compared to the trade estimates of 86.9 percent. Fed marketings were at 102.5 percent of 12 months earlier, while the trade estimates were at 102.6 percent. A more detailed summary will be in next week's report.

TheCattleSite News Desk

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