Weekly US Cattle Outlook - Cattle, calves numbers down

US - Weekly Cattle Outlook, 27th July 2007 - Weekly review of the US cattle industry, written by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.
calendar icon 30 July 2007
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The number of cattle and calves on farms and ranches in the U.S. on July 1 at 104,800,000 head was down 0.4 percent from 12 months earlier. The number of cows and heifers that have calved at 42,500,000 head was down 0.2 percent from a year earlier. The beef-cow herd was down 0.3 percent and the dairy-cow herd was the same as in 2006.

The number of heifers being held for beef-cow replacements was down 6.0 percent, and the number of heifers being held for dairy-herd replacements was up 3.0 percent from last year.

The 2007 calf crop was estimated at 37.4 million head, down 0.4 percent from a year earlier. The number of young cattle not being held for herd replacements outside of feedlots was estimated to be up 0.3 percent from 12 months earlier.

This data supports the belief that producers are continuing to reduce the nation's cattle herd at a slow rate.

The number of cattle and calves on feed July 1 in the U.S. was down 1.6 percent, and the number on feed in feedlots with a one-time capacity of 1,000-head-or-more was down 1.4 percent from 12 months earlier. The number on feed in the larger lots was down over one percentage point more than expected by the trade estimates. Placements of cattle on feed during June were down 14.9 percent and the number of fed cattle marketed during June was down 2.6 percent from June 2006.

Placements of all weights of cattle except the 700-799-pounds group were below a year earlier. The number placed on feed weighing less than 600 pounds was down 28.3 percent, the number placed between 600-699 pounds was down 24.4 percent, the number placed weighing between 700-799 pounds was up 0.2 percent, and the number weighing 800-pounds-or-more was down 5.1 percent.

The futures market at opening Monday for live cattle showed small gains for all contracts. The live cattle futures contracts closed Monday with the nearby contract up over $1 per cwt with most other contracts showing modest gains.

Demand for beef for the first six months of 2007 was up 0.6 percent from a year earlier. The demand for live fed cattle is showing a strong growth of 3.5 percent for January - June of 2007 compared to 12 months earlier. The weighted average live fed cattle price for the five-market area for the week through Thursday at $88.85 per cwt was down $0.11 per cwt from a week earlier. The weighted average carcass price for the five-market area through Thursday was up $0.05 per cwt from seven days earlier at 140.10 per cwt.

Wholesale beef prices Friday morning showed Choice beef at $140.55 per cwt, down $0.87 per cwt from a week earlier. Select beef was down $1.57 per cwt at $134.78 per cwt from seven days earlier.

Feeder steers and heifers at Oklahoma City this week were steady to $3 per cwt higher than a week earlier. Steer and heifer calves were lightly tested and steady.

The prices for medium- and large-frame number one steers by weight groups were: 405 pounds $135.25 per cwt, 500-600 pounds $117-129 per cwt, 600-700 pounds $115-112.25 per cwt, 700-800 pounds $110.50-121.25 and 800-1,000 pounds $105-115 per cwt.

Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 668 thousand head, up 2.8 percent from a year earlier.

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