2 May 2025

12 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

Europe

North America

Asia

Weekly US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net sales of 12,900 MT for 2025 were up 25 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (4,000 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), Taiwan (1,100 MT), and Canada (1,100 MT). Exports of 15,800 MT were up 20 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (5,600 MT), Japan (4,900 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT).

Pork: Net sales of 34,500 MT for 2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (20,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (3,500 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (2,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Australia (2,500 MT), and Colombia (1,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 25,800 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (10,500 MT), South Korea (4,700 MT), Japan (4,400 MT), Colombia (1,400 MT), and Canada (900 MT).

US and Mexico strike deal to resume joint eradication of New World Screwworm (NWS)

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced a breakthrough agreement with Mexico to resume collaborative eradication efforts targeting the deadly NWS. Under the deal, Mexico will lift restrictions on USDA aircraft and waive customs duties on eradication equipment, allowing uninterrupted cross-border cooperation. As a result, livestock ports will remain open — though U.S. authorities may revisit closures if Mexico fails to uphold the terms.

The announcement follows a letter Secretary Rollins sent to her Mexican counterpart, Secretary Julio Antonio Berdegue Sacristan, over the weekend urging swift resolution. Rollins praised the joint effort, calling NWS “a devastating threat to both of our economies,” and emphasized USDA’s commitment to safeguarding livestock producers. The NWS, a parasitic fly, poses a lethal risk to warm-blooded animals, potentially causing fatal infestations.

Smithfield cuts China pork exports amid soaring tariffs

Smithfield Foods, the largest U.S. pork processor, has declared China an unviable market for its pork exports after Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs pushed the effective duty rate on U.S. pork to 172%. This steep tariff hike, a response to U.S. trade measures, has rendered American pork exports uncompetitive in the world’s largest pork-consuming nation.

China previously accounted for about 3% of Smithfield’s sales, primarily through the export of variety meats such as pig stomachs, hearts, and heads-products with little demand among U.S. consumers. The company’s CEO, Shane Smith, stated, “With China effectively off the table, we had to adapt our business model significantly,” emphasizing a strategic pivot to alternative international markets.

Despite this setback, Smithfield reported a robust first quarter for 2025, with sales rising 9.5% to $3.77 billion, surpassing analyst expectations. The company now exports to over 30 countries, and executives are optimistic that demand for pork products originally destined for China will be met in these other markets.

Smithfield’s leadership acknowledged that the loss of the Chinese market is significant but maintain that the company is well-positioned to redirect its exports and focus on higher-margin products domestically and abroad. However, they also cautioned that increased domestic supply due to lost exports could pressure U.S. pork prices.

The trade tensions, which began with U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese goods, have forced Smithfield to streamline operations, including job reductions, as it navigates higher input costs and shifting consumer demand. The company remains committed to its diversified export strategy and core brands as it adapts to the evolving global trade landscape.

China’s plan to slash grain and soymeal use in livestock feed

China is undertaking a significant transformation in its livestock feed sector, aiming to reduce reliance on grain and soybean meal by 2030 as part of a broader strategy to enhance food security, cut costs, and boost efficiency in animal agriculture.

Key targets and strategies

• Reduced grain and soybean meal use: By 2030, grain is expected to account for around 60% of total feed consumption in China, down from higher current levels, while soybean meal usage is targeted to drop to about 10%. This is a notable reduction, as soybean meal ratios in animal feed were 14.5% in 2022, with interim targets set below 13% by 2025.
• Lower feed consumption per animal product: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs projects more than a 7% drop in feed consumption per kilogram of animal product in standardized large-scale farms by 2030 compared to 2023. This reflects a push for greater feed efficiency and resource utilization.
• Expansion of non-grain feed resources: China plans to expand the use of alternative protein sources such as microbial protein, food waste, insect protein, and animal-based protein, aiming for a production capacity exceeding 10 million metric tons by 2030. Pilot projects are already underway in several cities to use food waste and animal carcasses as feed inputs.

Implementation measures

• Feed formulation innovations: The government is promoting low-protein diet technologies and the use of synthetic amino acids, which can reduce soybean meal and grain use by up to 20 million tons without increasing feed costs. Feed makers are also encouraged to substitute soymeal with rapeseed, sunflower seed, and other protein sources.
• Utilization of domestic protein resources: There is a focus on maximizing domestic protein sources, including underutilized animal-derived and unconventional protein materials, which could replace up to 14 million tons of soybean meal and grains.
• Grass instead of grain: For ruminant livestock, China is promoting the cultivation of high-quality forage crops and the use of marginal lands for grass production, aiming to reduce feed grain use by over 14 million tons.

Broader livestock sector reforms

• Large-scale, efficient farming: China is accelerating the shift from small-scale, traditional farms to large-scale, standardized operations. By 2030, large-scale farms are projected to account for 75% of pig production, with widespread adoption of digital and precision farming technologies to further improve feed efficiency and environmental sustainability.
• Integrated and cooperative models: The ministry is supporting integrated dairy projects, efficient poultry systems, and the development of family farms and cooperatives to modernize production and optimize resource use.

Implications

• Reduced soybean imports: Lower soymeal use is projected to decrease China’s soybean imports from about 95 million tonnes currently to as low as 82–84 million tonnes by 2025–2030, reducing dependency on major exporters like the U.S. and Brazil.
• Food security and sustainability: These reforms are designed to build a more resilient supply chain, improve domestic food security, and reduce the environmental footprint of China’s livestock industry.

USDA April Outlook: 2025 food price increases accelerate, stay above 20-year average

USDA’s April forecast projects higher food price inflation in 2025 compared to March estimates, with all food prices expected to rise 3.5%, grocery prices 3.2%, and restaurant prices 3.8% — all above the 20-year historical average. While still well below the sharp increases of 2022, the outlook signals continued pressure on consumers.

Key updates include:

• Beef prices forecast to rise 6.3%, up from 5.2% expected in March, due to tight supplies and strong demand.
• Egg prices still volatile but now expected to rise 54.6% in 2025, slightly lower than the March forecast of 57.6%.
• Pork prices revised upward to a 1.8% increase, despite higher production forecasts.
• Fruit and vegetable prices are now expected to decline 0.3% in 2025, compared to a flat forecast in March.
• Other foods category inflation was sharply revised up to 1.8% from 0.2%, reflecting broader grocery pressures.

The report notably omits discussion of new tariffs, suggesting current 10% tariffs have not broadly impacted food prices yet. However, potential tariff hikes on Mexican tomatoes later this year could alter the vegetable price outlook.

Of note: Despite forecast increases, the rate of food inflation remains well below the extraordinary surges seen in 2022 and 2023.

USDA withdraws Biden-era Salmonella rule for poultry after legal pushback

USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) has officially withdrawn the proposed “Salmonella Framework for Raw Poultry Products” rule, which would have declared certain chicken and turkey products with Salmonella as “adulterated.” The agency cited the need for further review after receiving nearly 7,100 public comments, many questioning FSIS’s legal authority to impose new product standards. The proposal, published in August 2024 with the comment period ending in January 2025, was considered a landmark food safety initiative. FSIS reaffirmed its commitment to reducing Salmonella-related illnesses but acknowledged that the volume and substance of comments necessitate reassessing its regulatory approach. Critics of the withdrawal argue it stalls needed protections, while the industry and legal analysts await signals on any next steps from the Trump administration.

Weekly USDA dairy report

BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.2800. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.3145 (-0.0305). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.7050 and 40# blocks at $1.7000. The weekly average for barrels is $1.7595 (-0.1043) and blocks $1.7420 (-0.0655). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1875. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.1850 (+0.0162). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.5050. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.4940 (+0.0196).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: East and central region stakeholders note domestic butter demand is steady. West region stakeholders note domestic retail butter demand varies from steady to strong. Food service demand is indicated to be weaker in comparison to retail demand. Butter demand from international buyers is strong. Cream remains far from short throughout the country. Butter production is stronger with the holiday weekend in the rearview mirror. Butter inventories are generally seasonally growing. Bulk butter overages range from 7 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Conventional dairy ads decreased by 13 percent and organic dairy ads decreased by 41 percent for week 17. On the conventional side, yogurt is the only commodity that had an increase in terms of total ads by commodity for week 17 compared to week 16. On the organic side, yogurt, along with butter and flavored milk, had increases in terms of total organic ads by commodity comparing this week to last week. Cheese was the heaviest advertised conventional dairy commodity. The weighted average advertised prices for a half gallon container of conventional milk and organic milk were $2.11 and $5.44, respectfully.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Nationwide, milk production is strong. In the West, production is exceeding previous months and spring flush is in full swing throughout the rest of the country. Spot milk is available in some areas, but typically milk production is even with demand. Demand for Class I milk is steady. Class III demand remains steady, but prices for spot loads are selling at ranges from $7 under Class to $1-under Class. Class IV demand is steady while butter churns operate seven days a week. Condensed skim is readily available nationwide and in some areas, selling below class price. Ice cream manufacturers are clearing more cream as their busier season approaches. Cream is available nationwide but it’s not outpacing demand. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 1.05 – 1.20 in the East, 1.00 – 1.27 in the Midwest and 0.85 – 1.10 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices firmed in all regions this week. Spot market activity is somewhat active, and international demand has held up despite impending hurdles as NDM prices remain a value when compared to skim milk powder prices globally. Dry buttermilk prices were steady to higher in the Central/East regions, while moving slightly lower in the West. International demand, according to West contacts, remains somewhat robust. Dry whole milk prices moved northbound this week on limited production activity. Dry whey prices were steady in the Central and East regions, while shifting lower in the West. Dry whey production is stronger with plentiful milk levels throughout the country. Whey protein concentrate 34% prices continued on a bullish trajectory this week, as inventories have recovered to open up some spot market opportunities for both processors and buyers. Lactose prices were steady to higher, as inventories of high-mesh lactose remain snug. Rennet and acid casein prices were stable this week.

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS

WEST EUROPE: The UK-based Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) released data showing daily milk deliveries for the week ending April 12 averaged 37.65 million liters, up 1.1 percent from the week prior and up 5.7 percent from the same week last year. Ireland's Central Statistics Office released the March 2025 Consumer Price Index rose by 2.0 percent overall from March 2024. from January 2024. The national average price of butter per pound rose by 76 cents from March 2024. The national average price of Irish cheddar per kilogram increased by 50 cents from March 2024.

EAST EUROPE: An additional case of foot and mouth disease (FMD) was confirmed on a dairy farm in Hungary, bringing the country's total number of confirmed cases up to 5. The UK announced a ban on personal meat and dairy imports from the EU after travel to prevent possible introduction of foot and mouth disease.

OCEANIA: AUSTRALIA: According to Dairy Australia, March 2025 milk production, 595.9 million liters, was down slightly, 0.2 million liters, from March 2024. Milk production increased in New South Wales and Tasmania in March compared to a year earlier, but declined in every other state. Milk production from the start of the season in July 2024 through March 2025, 6,534.4 million liters, decreased 0.1 percent compared to the same time frame a year earlier.

NEW ZEALAND: Export data for March 2025 was recently released for New Zealand. This data showed a 35 percent increase in value for milk powder, butter, and cheese exported in March 2025 compared to March 2024. Fresh milk and cream export values were 79 percent higher in March 2025, when compared to a year earlier. Changes in export quantities from March 2024 to March 2025 for milk powder, milk fats (including butter) and cheese are + 0.4 percent, + 12 percent, and + 39 percent, respectively. Casein and caseinate export values in March 2025 were down 28 percent compared to a year prior.

SOUTH AMERICA: Key dairy producing countries in the region continue to have steady to strong milk production. Contacts in region convey milk yields from dairy farmers are stronger than they have been in recent years. Climatic changes this year have been milder than the dryness and flooding Argentina and Uruguay dairy stakeholders had at hand this time last year. Handlers in the region describe feed costs as affordable for dairy farmers. Feed availability is noted as steady.

US NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Conventional dairy ads decreased by 13 percent and organic dairy ads decreased by 41 percent for week 17. On the conventional side, yogurt is the only commodity that had an increase in terms of total ads by commodity for week 17 compared to week 16. On the organic side, yogurt, along with butter and flavored milk, had increases in terms of total organic ads by commodity comparing this week to last week. Cheese was the heaviest advertised conventional dairy commodity. The weighted average advertised prices for a half gallon container of conventional milk and organic milk were $2.11 and $5.44, respectfully.

Spain: Spain Seafood Report 2025

Spain is one of the world’s largest markets for fish and seafood. In 2024, it was the fourth largest importer of fish and seafood in the world - after much larger countries like the United States, China, and Japan. Spain boasts the largest fish processing industry in Europe as well as a high per capita consumption and expenditure on fish and seafood products. However, Spanish commercial fishing and aquaculture are insufficient to meet domestic demand for seafood products, therefore imports continue to remain key for the Spanish market. This report provides guidance to U.S. companies interested in exporting seafood products to Spain and includes an overview of the country's sector, market structure, and export requirements to help U.S. exporters navigate the challenges and opportunities in the Spanish market.