9 May 2025

11 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

Asia

Weekly USDA US beef, pork sales

Beef: Net sales of 7,600 MT for 2025 were down 41 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (6,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (1,900 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Hong Kong (1,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Taiwan (1,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Mexico (900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for China (5,500 MT). Exports of 15,100 MT were down 4 percent from the previous week, but up 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (5,200 MT), Japan (4,400 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT), and Hong Kong (1,000 MT).

Pork: Net sales of 24,200 MT for 2025 were down 30 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (9,900 MT, including decreases of 2,100 MT), Japan (3,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (3,000 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Canada (1,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Australia (1,500 MT), were offset by reductions for Denmark (100 MT). Exports of 25,600 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (11,000 MT), Japan (4,400 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT), Colombia (1,800 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT).

US egg imports surged in March 2025

Turkey and Mexico ramped up their exports, and Brazil and Honduras shipped eggs to the U.S. for the first time in this decade, according to Commerce Department data. This spike in imports is a direct response to severe domestic shortages caused by a major avian flu outbreak, which led to the culling of millions of egg-laying hens and a sharp decline in U.S. egg production.

Brazil, in particular, tripled its egg exports to the U.S. in March, sending 3,770 tons-an increase of over 340% compared to the previous year. Turkey also significantly increased its shipments, redirecting eggs originally destined for other markets to help fill the gap in the U.S. supply. Mexico resumed exports after a hiatus since 2023, and new suppliers like Honduras joined in.

These increased imports helped drive down U.S. egg prices, which had peaked at over $8 per dozen in early March before falling to around $3 by the end of the month. While imports remain a small fraction of total U.S. egg supply, they have played a crucial role in stabilizing the market and providing relief to consumers during this period of disruption.

US meat industry seeks competitive edge in Vietnam amid tariff disparities

The US meat sector is striving to enhance its presence in Vietnam’s burgeoning market, where demand for imported meat is projected to reach $1.7 billion in 2024 — a 14.2% increase from the previous year. However, American exporters face significant challenges due to higher tariffs compared to competitors from countries with free trade agreements (FTAs) with Vietnam.

Tariff disparities impacting US competitiveness. US meat exports to Vietnam are subject to Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs, which are notably higher than those for countries within the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and other FTAs. For instance, US frozen pork faces a 10% MFN tariff, while CPTPP members like Canada and Mexico benefit from zero tariffs. Similarly, US beef imports can incur tariffs up to 30%, whereas Australian and New Zealand beef enter Vietnam duty-free under existing agreements.

Vietnam’s expanding meat import market. Vietnam’s meat import sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by urbanization, rising incomes, and a growing middle class seeking premium and processed meat products. In 2024, the country imported approximately 876,670 tons of meat and meat products, valued at $1.78 billion, marking an 18.1% increase in value compared to 2023. India remains the largest supplier, accounting for over 22% of total imports, followed by Brazil and Russia.

US industry efforts and strategic positioning. To address these challenges, US industry groups like the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF) are focusing on trade promotion, consumer marketing, and supporting Vietnamese importers with training and incentives. They emphasize the superior quality and safety of US meat, produced under strict standards and modern inspection systems. The grain-based feed used in US livestock production also results in meat that aligns with Vietnamese consumer preferences for tenderness and flavor.

The recent imposition of a 46% US tariff on Vietnamese products has placed significant strain on US/Vietnam trade relations, threatening Vietnam’s export-driven economy and complicating bilateral ties. Key Vietnamese export sectors — such as electronics, textiles, footwear, and furniture — are particularly vulnerable, as the US is their largest market, and these goods now face steep price disadvantages. The tariff is five times higher than Vietnam’s average import tax on US goods, highlighting the imbalance and fueling tensions. President Trump previously announced a temporary 90-day suspension of the tariff, reducing it from 46% to 10% while both sides pursue a longer-term agreement. Vietnam has also offered to drop tariffs on US imports and pledged to address concerns over transshipment of Chinese goods through its territory. Despite these efforts, the uncertainty has already disrupted supply chains, threatened jobs, and raised concerns about global economic stability.

Looking ahead. As Vietnam continues to negotiate and implement trade agreements, the US meat sector is lobbying for reduced tariffs and more favorable trade terms to remain competitive and meet the rising demand in this dynamic market. Engaging in future trade negotiations and exploring potential FTAs could be pivotal for US exporters aiming to solidify their foothold in Vietnam’s expanding meat market.

Monthly USDA dairy highlights for March

March 2025 Highlights

• Total cheese output (excluding cottage cheese) was 1.23 billion pounds, 1.4 percent above March 2024 and 9.8 percent above February 2025.
• Italian type cheese production totaled 518 million pounds, 0.2 percent below March 2024 but 9.2 percent above February 2025.
• American type cheese production totaled 500 million pounds, 4.6 percent above March 2024 and 13.0 percent above February 2025.
• Butter production was 229 million pounds, 8.6 percent above March 2024 and 12.9 percent above February 2025.

Dry milk products (comparisons in percentage with March 2024) 

• Nonfat dry milk, human - 168 million pounds, down 9.1 percent.
• Skim milk powder - 34.0 million pounds, down 11.9 percent.
• Whey products (comparisons in percentage with March 2024)
• Dry whey, total - 70.0 million pounds, down 12.4 percent.
• Lactose, human and animal - 100 million pounds, up 1.7 percent.
• Whey protein concentrate, total - 40.7 million pounds, down 8.5 percent.

Frozen products (comparisons in percentage with March 2024)

• Ice cream, regular (hard) - 60.4 million gallons, down 7.9 percent.
• Ice cream, lowfat (total) - 35.4 million gallons, down 8.9 percent.
• Sherbet (hard) - 1.47 million gallons, down 16.2 percent.
• Frozen yogurt (total) - 3.74 million gallons, up 6.1 percent.

Global food commodity prices rose in April

That’s according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), with the FAO Food Price Index averaging 128.3 points— up 1% from March’s 127.1 points and 7.6% higher than April 2024. The increase was primarily driven by higher prices for cereals, meat, and dairy products, which outweighed declines in sugar and vegetable oil prices.

Key drivers behind the April increase

Cereals:

• The FAO Cereal Price Index rose by 1.2% from March, reaching 111.0 points.
• Wheat prices edged up due to tightening exportable supplies in the Russian Federation, steady export pace from other major exporters, and currency movements, especially a weaker U.S. dollar against the euro.
• Corn prices increased, influenced by seasonally tighter stock levels in the United States and currency fluctuations. Changes in U.S. import tariff policies also contributed to upward price pressure.
• Rice prices rose 0.8% on stronger demand for fragrant varieties and reduced fresh supply in Vietnam.

Meat:

• The FAO Meat Price Index climbed 3.2% from March, with prices rising across all categories. Pork saw the largest increase, particularly in the EU, due to stronger global import demand and the lifting of disease-related restrictions on German exports.
• Beef and sheep meat prices also increased, supported by steady import demand and limited global supplies, especially from Australia and Brazil.
• Poultry prices rose moderately, especially in Brazil, where robust demand and holiday-related processing slowdowns tightened exportable supplies.

Dairy:

• The FAO Dairy Price Index increased by 2.4% month-on-month, standing 22.9% higher than a year earlier.
• Butter prices hit a new all-time high, up 2.9% from March, driven by reduced inventories and strong milkfat demand in Europe, despite seasonally higher milk production.
• Milk powder and cheese prices also rose, reflecting steady domestic demand and shifting export interest from Europe to Oceania.

Sugar and Vegetable Oils:

• The FAO Sugar Price Index fell by 3.5% in April, its second consecutive monthly decline, mainly due to concerns about global economic outlook, increased sugar output in Brazil, and a weaker Brazilian real.
• The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index dropped 2.3%, led by lower palm oil prices as global export supplies recovered, though soy and rapeseed oil prices continued to rise due to firm demand and tightening supplies.

US, Mexico strike deal to resume joint eradication of screwworm

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced an agreement with Mexico to resume collaborative eradication efforts targeting the deadly New World screwworm (NWS). Under the deal, Mexico will lift restrictions on USDA aircraft and waive customs duties on eradication equipment, allowing uninterrupted cross-border cooperation. As a result, livestock ports will remain open — though US authorities may revisit closures if Mexico fails to uphold the terms. An official with the National Confederation of Livestock Organizations, a Mexican organization that represents ranchers and livestock producers, says cattle crossings from Mexico are slow and there are around 300,000 calves that are backed up.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (5/2) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.3300. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.2900 (-0.0245). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.7550 and 40# blocks at $1.7600. The weekly average for barrels is $1.7195 (-0.0400) and blocks $1.7330 ( 0.0090). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1950. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.1850 (N.C.). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.5200. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.5060 (+0.0120).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic butter demand is noted as steady across all three regions. However, some sellers indicate retail demand is more robust than food service demand. Export butter demand is strong. Domestic prices continue to be competitive with international prices. Cream volumes are widely available for butter producers throughout the country. Some butter producers’ churns are more active than expected for the end of April. Butter production schedules are generally strong. Bulk butter overages range from 7 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: In the East and Central regions, milk output is strengthening, enabling cheesemakers to run increased production schedules. Meanwhile in the West, milk production is declining and passed its seasonal peak. Cheese output in the West varies. Demand for cheese is strong in the East, but contacts in the Central region note lighter demand this week. Domestic and international demand is mixed in the West. Spot cheese inventories are tighter in the East and West. Central region cheesemakers report inventories are tight, but some noted increased spot availability this week. The CME daily cash trading price for cheese barrels and cheese blocks declined from last Wednesday to this Wednesday.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Milk output remains strong nationally as some areas continue with spring flush. Spot milk prices are down compared to this time last year. Demand for Class I milk remains steady, but as the school year is winding down, some producers are moving milk from bottling to cheese production. Milk demand for Class II is generally steady nationwide and a slight increase in ice cream production is occurring in some areas. Class III demand remains strong with some areas seeing an uptick in cheese production. Cream production is strong nationwide. Butter churns continue to run at full capacity. Spot loads for cream are available, but the multiples are down slightly from last week. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 1.05 - 1.18 in the East, 1.00 - 1.20 in the Midwest, and 0.85 - 1.18 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices were unchanged in all regions this week. Spot market activity is somewhat active, and export interest is somewhat mixed. Dry buttermilk prices were steady in all regions as well. International demand, according to West contacts, remains somewhat robust. Dry whole milk prices were unchanged this week. Dry whey prices were steady across all regions. Dry whey production is unchanged this week. Prices for whey protein concentrate 34% were unchanged, amid steady demand. Lactose prices were unchanged in most aspects this week, with only the top of the range pushing 1 cent higher. Prices for acid and rennet casein were stable.

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The Organic Insider sent out on April 29 discussed a new training available in the Organic Integrity Learning Center titled "A Newcomer's Guide to Organic Handler Certification." This training is intended for organic handlers including processors, co-packers, distributors, wholesalers, importer/ exporters, brokers, storage facilities, and private labelers. The February 2025 Pennsylvania Monthly Organic Dairy Report, a report created as part of the Organic Dairy Initiative sponsored by the 2018 farm bill, was released on May 2, 2025. Federal Milk Market Order 1, in New England, reports utilization of types of organic milk by pool plants. During March 2025, organic whole milk utilization totaled 21.136 million pounds, up from 19.15 million pounds the previous year. The February 2025 European organic milk average pay price increased in Austria, Germany, and Bavaria compared to January but decreased in France.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: The number of conventional retail ads declined by 12 percent and the total organic retail ads fell 23 percent. The most advertised conventional dairy commodity in week 18 is cheese. Conventional ice cream ads declined by 6 percent, but this commodity was the second most advertised this week. The most advertised organic dairy commodity this week is milk, despite ads declining 42 percent from last week. Conventional milk ads also declined 39 percent this week. Half gallon milk's week 18 organic premium is $2.98.