20 June 2025

14 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

Europe

North America

Asia

Oceania

USDA Secretary announces major escalation in US fight against the New World Screwworm (NWS)

USDA launched an $8.5 million sterile fly dispersal facility in South Texas and unveiling a sweeping five-part plan to boost surveillance, response, and eradication efforts at the border and beyond.

A Rapid Response to a Looming Threat

NWS, a destructive pest that threatens livestock, wildlife, pets, and, in rare cases, humans, has been detected as far north as Oaxaca and Veracruz, Mexico — just 700 miles from the U.S. border. In response, Secretary Rollins suspended imports of live cattle, horses, and bison through southern border ports last month and has now outlined a strategy designed to keep the pest out of the United States.

“The United States has defeated NWS before and we will do it again,” Rollins said. “We do not take lightly the threat NWS poses to our livestock industry, our economy, and our food supply chain. The United States government will use all resources at its disposal to push back NWS, and today’s announcement… is just the beginning.”

Highlights of USDA’s Five-Pronged Plan:

1. Stop the Pest in Mexico:
• Expanded sterile fly production with $21 million invested in Mexico, increasing capacity to over 160 million sterile flies per week.
• Direct USDA oversight and continuous auditing of Mexico’s animal health controls.
• Ongoing technical assistance and materials for surveillance and detection.
2. Fortify the U.S. Border:
• Intensified trapping, monitoring, and public outreach along the border.
• APHIS tick riders, in partnership with Customs and Border Protection, to intercept and treat stray livestock.
3. Maximize U.S. Readiness:
• Updated emergency management plans in cooperation with state and local authorities.
• Regulatory streamlining to accelerate response and treatment deployment.
4. Take the Fight to the Screwworm:
• Immediate construction of a domestic sterile insect dispersal facility at Moore Air Base, with capacity to serve both sides of the border and plans for even greater domestic sterile fly production.
5. Drive Innovation for Eradication:
• Investment in new research, technologies, and improved sterile insect techniques — including genetically modified strains and advanced irradiation methods.
• Enhanced cooperation with land-grant universities and expanded local training and surveillance.

USDA will also hold public listening sessions to gather input on sterile fly production, eradication tools, and innovative solutions.

Broad Support Across Texas and the Livestock Industry

Texas leaders, including Governor Greg Abbott and congressional representatives, praised the initiative as a critical step to protect the state’s ranchers and the nation’s food supply. Producer groups such as the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and the Texas Farm Bureau lauded the opening of a U.S.-based eradication facility, calling it essential to safeguarding American agriculture.

“Sterile flies are the only known way to stop the reproduction and continued expansion of New World screwworm, and it’s assuring to see Secretary Rollins follow through her early commitments,” said Stephen Diebel, First Vice President of the Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association.

Bottom Line: With the threat of NWS advancing north, USDA’s aggressive new strategy seeks to shield U.S. agriculture, protect rural economies, and ensure continued confidence in North American livestock trade.

China’s pork imports surge in May

Monthly and year-to-date growth reflects stronger demand

China’s pork imports reached 90,000 metric tons (MT) in May, marking a 12.5% increase from April and an 11.7% rise compared to May of the previous year. This uptick highlights a rebound in demand for imported pork, likely driven by domestic supply constraints and evolving consumer preferences.

Through the first five months of 2025, China’s cumulative pork imports totaled 450,000 MT, which is 5.8% higher than the same period in 2024. This sustained growth suggests that China is relying more heavily on international pork suppliers to meet domestic consumption needs.

Outlook: Analysts expect China’s pork import volumes to remain robust in the coming months, especially if domestic production remains volatile or if consumer demand continues to rise. The country’s import trends are closely watched by global pork exporters, as China remains the world’s largest pork consumer and a key driver of international trade flows.

China targets ‘refattening’ as government cracks down on speculative pig fattening

Beijing moves to slim down hogs, stabilize pork market and curb grain waste

China is ramping up efforts to curb the speculative practice of “refattening” pigs, as authorities seek to stabilize volatile pork prices and cut down on costly feed waste amid the ongoing U.S. trade war. According to Reuters, small Chinese breeders and farmers have increasingly bought market-ready pigs from large breeders and fattened them for extra months — hoping to profit if pork prices rise. This “refattening” adds 40-50kg to each hog, but analysts warn it leads to big price swings and inefficiencies. “It can lead to short-term shortages followed by a glut, driving big price swings and unsettling the market,” said Pan Chenjun, senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank.

China’s top pig breeder, Muyuan Foods, confirmed it recently halted sales to refatteners after rumors of a government policy crackdown. Sources told Reuters that Guangdong province is especially strict in enforcing the new rules.

Regulators worry the practice worsens oversupply and deepens pork price drops. Cash hog prices have slumped from 21 yuan/kg last August to just 14 yuan/kg since February, with weak demand and eroded margins.

Feed efficiency is also in focus as Beijing pushes to cut grain use — especially soybeans, a key import from the U.S. “Pigs are most efficient at around 120 kg—beyond that, they eat more but grow less,” Pan added.

Of note: The National Development and Reform Commission and Muyuan Foods declined Reuters’ requests for comment.

Historic run for US cash cattle continues

Cash cattle averaged a record $238.68 last week, up $2.06 from the previous week. This marked the ninth straight week of gains in the cash market and the eighth straight record. Cattle futures sharply rebounded on Monday given their sharp discounts to the cash market. Meanwhile, wholesale beef prices are picking up steam as packers work to improve still highly negative cutting margins.

USDA Australia report: Dairy and Products Semi-annual

Australia’s milk production in 2025 is estimated to decline to 8.6 million metric tons (MMT), following a significant 2.3 percent increase in 2024. The growth experienced in 2024 has stalled, primarily due to very dry conditions across southwest Victoria and South Australia. However, the impact of the production decline is being partially offset by continued strong farmgate milk prices and lower feed grain costs. 

Domestic fluid milk consumption in 2025 is expected to decrease by 0.4 percent, reflecting a return to the long-term downward trend after a modest rise in 2024. Factory-use milk consumption is projected to fall by 1.2 percent, largely driven by the anticipated decline in milk production. As a result, the volume of manufactured dairy products is also expected to decrease slightly. 

Exports of fluid milk and cheese are projected to increase in 2025. In contrast, butter exports are expected to remain flat, while shipments of skim milk powder (SMP) and whole milk powder (WMP) are anticipated to decline.

USDA Monthly Livestock, Poultry and Dairy Report for June

The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2025 is lowered from last month. 

• Beef production is lowered on reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter and reduced cow slaughter for the remainder of the year. 
• Pork production is unchanged from the previous month. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released on June 26, will provide indications of supplies of hogs for slaughter in the outlying quarters as well as into early 2026. 
• Broiler production is raised on recent production and hatchery data. 
• Turkey production is lowered on recent hatchery data. 
• Egg production is lowered on recent layer inventory data, as well as recent discoveries of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in commercial laying flocks.

For 2026, red meat and poultry production is raised on higher beef and turkey production. Beef production is raised primarily on higher feedlot placements in the second half of 2025 and early 2026, which are expected to result in higher steer and heifer slaughter for 2026. Turkey production is raised on improved returns. The pork and broiler production forecasts are unchanged. 

EXPORT FORECAST: The beef export forecast for 2025 is raised on recent trade data and continued strong demand from key export markets. The beef import forecast is also raised on strong imports from Oceania and South America, as well as robust domestic demand for lean processing beef.

The pork export forecast is reduced for 2025 on recent trade data and increased export competition. For 2026, pork exports are also reduced on continued export competition. 

The 2025 broiler export forecast is raised based on recent trade data indicating higher shipments in the second quarter. The broiler export forecast for 2026 is unchanged. The turkey export forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are lowered as higher U.S. prices are expected to make exports less competitive in destination markets.

PRICE FORECAST: Cattle price forecasts for 2025 are raised on recent price strength and continued demand for cattle. The increased price forecasts are carried over into 2026 as well. Hog price forecasts are raised for 2025, based on recent prices, as well as relatively tight pork inventories and increased cattle prices supporting hog demand. Raised hog price forecasts carry over into early 2026. Broiler price forecasts are raised for the second half of 2025 and into 2026, supported by higher prices of competing animal proteins. Turkey price forecasts are also raised for 2025 and 2026 based on recent price strength. The egg price forecast for 2025 is lowered slightly for the third quarter based on recent prices, but the price forecast for 2026 is unchanged. 

Milk production forecasts are raised for both 2025 and 2026. Based on the latest Milk Production report, cow inventories are raised for 2025 and milk per cow is raised for both 2025 and 2026. For 2025 and 2026, commercial exports forecasts are raised on a fat basis, primarily due to competitively priced butter exports, as well as higher cheese and fluid product exports.

On a skim solids basis, export forecasts are reduced on lower shipments of nonfat dry milk (NDM). Import forecasts for 2025 are raised on both a fat basis and skim-solids basis. For 2026, imports are raised on a skim-solids basis, but unchanged on a fat basis. For 2025, butter, cheese, whey, and NDM price forecasts are raised from the previous month on recent price strength. The all milk price forecast is raised to $21.95 per cwt. For 2026, butter, cheese, and whey price forecasts are raised as strong demand is expected to absorb the growth in milk production. NDM prices are unchanged from the previous month. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised as well. The all milk price forecast for 2026 is $21.30 per cwt.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (6/13) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.5700. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.5400 (+0.0035). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.8350 and 40# blocks at $1.8375. The weekly average for barrels is $1.8520 (-0.0025) and blocks $1.8595 (-0.0620). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2675. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.2655 (-0.0070). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.5525. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.5640 (-0.0035).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Demand for US butter, which remains competitively priced, is strong from international buyers. Domestic demand for butter is steady. Cream volumes in southern parts of the West and Central regions are tighter, while cream volumes elsewhere are steady. In both cases, quantities are sufficient for butter producers. Many plant managers are producing butter seven days a week. Bulk butter overages range from 7 cents below to 6 cents above market across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Last week's CME weekly average prices for barrels and 40-pound blocks were down from the previous week. The CME prices are trending down this week as well. Some areas are reporting a downturn in milk production, while others have not reported any drops in raw milk. Milk output is generally sufficient to meet production needs. Educational institutions are out for summer break, reducing demand for milk from bottling operations. Additional availability has pushed spot Class III milk prices lower; volumes are trading from $7 under to $1 under this week. Inventories of cheese are tighter than expected but spot loads of cheese are available for purchase. Export demand for cheese is strong, as U.S. prices are competitive against other internationally produced cheeses. The higher international demand is offsetting weaker domestic demand of cheese.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Seasonal temperature changes are beginning to affect the amount of milk production in most areas, nationally. The Midwest and Northeast are still producing larger than expected volumes while other areas of the country are seeing declining production. Milk components are beginning to drop in some areas though contacts say they remain higher than previous years. Class I bottling facilities are seeing a drop in production, predominantly due to closure of educational institutions for the summer. Class II production is steadily increasing to account for the summer demands of ice cream and frozen dairy products. Ice cream manufacturers are purchasing spot loads of cream to accommodate the increased production. Class III production is steadily increasing. Much of the milk diverted from bottling facilities is being sent to cheese makers. The increased availability contributed to lower spot Class III prices this week. Cream demand is strong nationwide. Spot loads of milk are available for ice cream and butter production. Cream multiples remain strong. Condensed skim milk activity is heavy in some areas and steady in others. Condensed skim sales are steady with most sales going below Class price. Cream multiples for all Classes range 1.10-1.27 in the East, 1.12 1.27 in the Midwest, and 1.02-1.20 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: In all regions, prices for low/ medium heat NDM were steady to higher this week. Domestic demand is softening for low/medium heat NDM. In the Central and East regions, dry buttermilk prices were unchanged, and contacts say markets were quiet this week. Dry buttermilk prices increased across the mostly price series and at the bottom of the range in the West. The price range for dry whole milk moved higher this week. Dry whey prices were unchanged in the East, while prices increased at the bottom of the Central region range and across the mostly price series. In the West, dry whey prices were higher at the bottoms of the range and mostly price series. Cheesemakers in all regions continue to run busy production schedules, leaving plenty of liquid whey available for drying. The price range for whey protein concentrate 34% is holding steady, but prices decreased at the top of the mostly price series. Production is limited as manufacturers are focusing on higher whey protein concentrates and permeate. Lactose prices held steady this week, as tight inventories are limiting spot market activity. Acid casein prices are steady to higher, but rennet casein prices are declining.

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: A New Zealand dairy cooperative recently announced their forecasted organic milk pay price for the start of the 2025/2026 season. The cooperative's forecasted organic milk price for the upcoming season is a new high with a midpoint of $12.30/kgMS, up 30 cents from the previous season. Recently released data from a New Zealand organic group showed the organic sector grew to 1.18 billion NZD in 2024. The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reported April 2025 estimated fluid product sales. The U.S. sale of total organic milk products was 251 million pounds, up 0.3 percent from the previous year. From the start of the year through April the U.S. sale of total products was 1,025 million pounds, and up 2.4 percent year-to-date. Compared to last period, organic feed corn trade activity is moderate with good demand.

USDA reports on Spain agriculture

Abundant precipitation and mild temperatures prevailing in Spain since the beginning of March have favored winter grain crop development and increased yield expectations. Similarly, ample water supplies have allowed a recovery in corn area. However, high temperatures in the second half of May reduced yield expectations in some regions. Spain’s total grain production is expected to exceed 24.1 million MT in MY 2025/26. Grain import demand is projected at 14 million MT- down from the over 16 million MT estimated for MY 2024/25.

After years trending down, due to stiff competition for land from more profitable tree crops, official statistics reveal a recovery in area planted to grains in Spain for MY 2025/26. An upward trend in grain prices in the Fall planting season, combined with comparatively lower input prices from the highs registered in 2022 and 2023, sent a signal for improved farmers’ margins and contributed to a recovery in planted area for winter grains. The initially negative outlook on water availability at the beginning of the hydrological year led farmers in Spain to increase their more droughtresilient winter grains plantings at the expenses of spring planted crops. A larger area planted to corn is projected as the country’s water reservoirs filled with late winter and spring precipitation, replacing sunflower or sugar beet planting in the southern and northern half of the country respectively.

Large Crop Expected to Reduce Spain’s Grain Import Needs

In Spain, early fall (October) precipitation caused delays in the harvest of summer crops such as corn and sunflower. In some grain growing areas, particularly in the country’s east, excessive soil moisture prevented farmers from entering their fields, hence delaying winter-grain planting operations. However, fall rains were ultimately beneficial for the initial development stages of winter grain plants. The absence of rain since mid-November, combined with above average temperatures, allowed farmers to catch up with planting operations and compensated for the initial delays.

The combination of mild fall and winter temperatures and relatively ample and long-awaited winter precipitation since late January contributed to a very favorable germination of winter crops across Spain, despite the initial delays caused by early fall precipitations in the country’s east, and the drier conditions to the country’s northwest. Spring 2025 was marked by abundant rainfall from early March until the second half of May, which not only restored soil moisture across the country, but also significantly improved water storage levels and secured above average yields on rain-fed land. March and April registered below average temperatures, delaying winter grain development.

However, the heat wave in the second half of May reduced winter grain yield expectations, particularly in Castile-La Mancha, where the behind-schedule crop struggled with the high temperatures. At the national level, water reserves are currently at 76.8 percent of total storage capacity. Irrigation water availability allows for a recovery of the area planted to corn. According to Post projections, Spain’s grain corn plantings could potentially amount to nearly 320 thousand Hectares in MY 2025/26.