29 August 2025

12 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

South America

North America

Weekly US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net sales of 13,600 MT for 2025 were up 34 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (7,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (1,500 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Hong Kong (1,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Taiwan (900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 11,500 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week, but down 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (3,600 MT), Japan (3,500 MT), Taiwan (1,200 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT), and Canada (800 MT).

Pork: Net sales of 42,400 MT for 2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (26,700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Colombia (3,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (2,500 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), the Dominican Republic (1,400 MT), and Guatemala (1,400 MT), were offset by reductions for Cuba (100 MT). Exports of 25,600 MT were down 10 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,600 MT), Japan (2,900 MT), South Korea (2,400 MT), China (2,300 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT).

Mexico reports sharp rise in screwworm cases

53% month-over-month increase raises alarm for ranchers and U.S. officials

Mexico has reported 5,086 cases of flesh-eating screwworm in animals as of Aug. 17, marking a 53% jump from July, according to government data reviewed by Reuters. The outbreak, whch includes 649 currently active cases, has hit cattle hardest but also affected dogs, horses, and sheep. “This is absolutely concerning,” said Neal Wilkins, CEO of the East Foundation, noting that the sharp rise during extreme heat suggests the outbreak is not under control. Screwworms, which burrow into living flesh after hatching from eggs laid in wounds, can devastate livestock herds and wildlife populations.

Since emerging in 2023, the parasites have spread north from Central America into Mexico, edging closer to the U.S. border. American ranchers warn a Texas infestation could cost about $1.8 billion.

USDA will send a team to Mexico in two weeks to verify containment protocols, Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said Tuesday at the Farm Progress Show. The surge follows confirmation of a U.S. human case linked to travel from El Salvador earlier this month.

Key question: Asks one ag analyst: Are any of them North of where USDA is dropping sterile flies? The last case was 370 miles from the U.S. border. Were any of these new cases closer than that?

Brazil beef tariffs set to reshape global trade

Mexico, Australia and Argentina positioned to fill U.S. demand as Brazil seeks new markets

Higher U.S. tariffs on Brazilian beef are expected to redirect global trade flows, analysts told Reuters. With President Donald Trump’s 50% tariff on Brazilian beef in effect since Aug. 6, exporters anticipate increased U.S. imports from Mexico, Australia and potentially Argentina, while Brazil redirects more shipments to China and other destinations. (Brazilian beef, previously subject to a 26.4% U.S. import tax beyond quota limits, now faces an additional 50% levy.)

Brazil’s agriculture ministry said beef exports to Mexico help keep local inflation in check, though whether Mexico re-exports to the U.S. remains uncertain. Abiec data show that between Aug. 1–25, Brazil shipped 10,200 metric tons of beef to Mexico worth $58.8 million, compared with 7,800 tons to the U.S. valued at $43.6 million. Exports to both Russia and Chile also slightly exceeded U.S. volumes at 7,900 tons each.

Shipments to Mexico have been climbing rapidly. From January through July, Brazil exported 67,659 tons worth $365 million — nearly triple the level from the same period last year. That contrasts with about 46,000 tons for all of 2024 and just over 5,000 tons in 2023. Abiec noted that Brazil is seeking to expand the number of meatpacking plants eligible to supply the Mexican market. A Brazilian government delegation is in Mexico this week, with priorities including negotiating a free trade agreement and extending the “Package Against Inflation and High Prices” (Pacic) for another two years.

Some analysts say Brazil may step into markets traditionally supplied by Australia, while Japan could open to Brazilian products as U.S. supplies remain tight after its cattle herd hit historic lows.

China remains Brazil’s top beef destination.

Meat Institute praises push for nutrition training in medical education

Industry group says initiative will strengthen trust in doctors’ dietary guidance

The Meat Institute welcomed the joint effort by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and Department of Education to encourage leading medical education organizations to expand nutrition training. “Americans trust their doctors for advice, including advice on nutrition,” said Meat Institute President and CEO Julie Anna Potts. She emphasized that better training will help align medical advice with sound dietary practices, including the role of meat and poultry.

Calling the initiative “commonsense and overdue,” Potts thanked HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Education Secretary Linda McMahon for advancing reforms aimed at improving the health and well-being of Americans.

Brazil wants to export more beef to Mexico

Mexican authorities will visit meatpacking plants in Brazil to ensure they meet export standards, reports said. Brazil is seeking new markets after being hit by U.S. tariffs, with Mexico becoming its second-largest market so far this month. If approved, the new plants would take the number of Brazilian facilities authorized to export beef to Mexico to 49.

USDA sees moderate food inflation in 2025, slower pace expected in 2026

Grocery prices lag behind restaurants as beef and eggs drive sharp increases; wholesale markets signal further volatility

Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows food prices rising largely in step with overall inflation. From June to July 2025, the all-food CPI rose 0.2%, the same pace as economy-wide inflation, and stood 2.9% higher than a year earlier.

Grocery vs. Restaurants

The divergence between at-home and away-from-home food costs persists:

• Food-at-home (groceries): +0.1% in July, +2.2% year-on-year.
• Food-away-from-home (restaurants): +0.3% in July, +3.9% year-on-year.

This split continues a decade-long trend in which restaurant meals climb faster than grocery prices, reflecting higher labor and service costs.

USDA August Forecast for 2025

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) projects food price growth this year to remain near historical averages:

• All food: +2.9% (prediction interval: 2.3–3.4%)
• Food-at-home: +2.2% (1.4–3.0%)
• Food-away-from-home: +3.9% (3.5–4.2%)

Within categories, volatility is sharp:

• Eggs: +24.4% forecast, reflecting lingering fallout from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI).
• Beef & Veal: +9.9% as cattle herds shrink but demand stays strong.
• Fresh Vegetables: –0.8% after 2024’s weather-driven spikes.
• Pork: +1.6%, Poultry: +2.5%.
• Sugar & Sweets: +4.7%, Nonalcoholic Beverages: +3.6%, tied to higher global coffee and citrus costs.

2026 Outlook: Slower Growth, Wider Uncertainty

In 2026, food inflation is expected to ease further:

• All food: +2.2% (–2.9 to +7.5%)
• Food-at-home: +1.2% (–6.3 to +9.2%)
• Food-away-from-home: +3.3% (0.5–6.1%)

The wide ranges underscore risks from energy prices, trade policy, weather shocks, and disease outbreaks.

Producer Price Index (PPI) Outlook: Wholesale Signals Ahead

While CPI reflects consumer prices, the PPI tracks farm- and wholesale-level prices that often foreshadow retail movements. USDA does not formally forecast PPIs but highlights expected trends in 2025:

• Cattle & Beef: Farm-level cattle prices predicted to surge 21.4%, with wholesale beef up 10.5%. Herd contraction and tight supply remain key drivers.
• Eggs: Farm-level prices forecast to rise a volatile 46.1%, though recent declines in HPAI cases could temper pressures.
• Milk: +1.8% expected, with modest gains despite increased production.
• Fruits: –1.8% forecast, while vegetables show a sharper –11.4% decline after this year’s weather-driven spikes.
• Wheat: –9.3% predicted, continuing post-Ukraine war declines but at a slower pace.

Because PPIs are more volatile and closer to production shocks, they often serve as leading indicators for consumer-level CPI. Current forecasts suggest continued upward pressure on beef and eggs, while relief may come from vegetables, fruits, and wheat.

Historical Context

Food inflation surged nearly 10% in 2022, the fastest since 1979, fueled by avian flu, the Russia-Ukraine war, and high energy costs. Prices slowed to 5.8% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024 as supply chains healed and inflationary pressures cooled. The 2025 outlook points to a return to more typical growth, but sharp divergences across categories highlight the uneven recovery.

Brazil’s poultry exports dip as egg sales soar

Avian flu fallout curbs chicken shipments abroad, while U.S. demand fuels record egg export growth

Brazilian chicken meat exports are forecast to fall by up to 2% in 2025 as bans from China and the EU linger following an avian flu case earlier this year. Exports to China alone dropped 32.2% through July, though shipments are expected to rebound in 2026. Meanwhile, domestic chicken production continues to expand.

In sharp contrast, Brazilian egg exports are set to surge 116.6% in 2025, fueled by U.S. demand after bird flu outbreaks reduced local supply. Egg exports are expected to maintain momentum into 2026 with more moderate growth, alongside rising domestic production.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (8/22) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.2350. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.2835 (-0.0175). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.7600 and 40# blocks at $1.7500. The weekly average for barrels is $1.8000 (-0.0250) and blocks $1.8155 (-0.0190). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2600. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.2625 (+0.0020). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.5550. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.5775 (-0.0190).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: West region contacts report mixed domestic demand. Central and East region contacts report strengthening domestic demand, boosted by the upcoming holiday. Demand from international buyers is strong. Some butter manufacturers note international buyer interest is outpacing production of international butter loads. Availability of spot cream loads is ample, but not abundant. Demand for spot cream loads from butter manufacturers is mixed. Production schedules vary from steady to stronger. Many butter manufacturers are more focused on retail butter production than bulk butter production. Bulk butter overages range from 5 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Bottling production and demand from cheese makers is keeping spot availability of milk low in the Northeast. Cheese production is good and keeping pace with demand. Inventory levels of cheese are holding steady this week. Central region contacts note incoming milk inventories are up slightly. Spot milk remains in strong demand, with Class III ranging from $3- under to $2-over, as of reporting. Cheese productions are steady to lighter as plant managers cite limited spot milk availability. In the West, demand for Class III spot milk loads from cheese manufacturers is mixed. Stakeholders indicate prices for US produced loads are generally attractive to international buyers. Demand from international buyers varies from steady to stronger.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Milk production nationwide remains seasonally low. The Midwest and Northeast are starting to see a leveling of production as summer temperatures start to drop. Milk components remain low, but contacts are impressed with how high components are compared to previous years. Class I demand is stronger in most regions as educational institutions begin the new school year. Class II production is slowing as ice cream manufacturers are decreasing production runs as the summer ends. Class III manufacturing is steady to strong nationwide. Some cheese producers ran full production schedules leading to a strong demand for spot milk. Spot purchases for Class III ranged from flat to $2.75 over Class. Class IV production was steady to stronger this week. Cream is widely available in most regions. Many butter manufacturers are taking in spot purchases of cream to keep the churns full. Demand for condensed skim remains strong. Many facilities are opting to sell condensed skim rather than send it to the dryer. Sales for condensed skim are going from $0.15 to $0.25 over Class price. Availability of condensed skim is tight. Cream multiples for all Classes range 1.18-1.33 in the East, 1.15-1.34 in the Midwest, and 1.12-1.26 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: In the Central and East regions, the price range for low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) tightened this week. The bottom of the range increased slightly, while the top of the range dropped by two cents. The mostly range dropped at the top by one cent. In the West, low/medium heat NDM prices moved lower for both ends of the range and mostly price series. Domestic demand is lighter. Demand from international buyers varies from steady to lighter. High heat NDM prices remained the same in the Central and East while lowering in the West. Dry buttermilk prices in the Central and East were unchanged this week and, in the West, the prices moved lower for the top end of the range. Inventories are tight with manufacturers keeping very little stock on hand. Demand for dry buttermilk varies from steady to lighter. Export demand is steady. Dry whole milk prices shifted lower at the bottom of the range this week, while the top of the range held steady. Production remains concentrated on fulfilling contracts, keeping spot availability limited. Dry whey prices varied by region this week. The East remained the same, Central region dropped at the top, and the West increased at the top of the range. Demand is increasing in the Central and East and steady in the West. The whey protein concentrate 34% (WPC 34%) market strengthened this week as the top of the price range pushed higher, while the mostly price series held unchanged. Lactose prices held within the established range this week, while the mostly price series inched higher at the top end. Volumes remain consistent, but demand continues to run ahead of production, keeping spot availability somewhat limited and inventories tight. Prices for both acid casein and rennet casein moved higher on both ends of the range this week. Stakeholders indicate demand is putting some upward pressure on prices.

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The USDA AMS National Organic Program (NOP) provides an email notification service, the Organic Insider, to send out updates to the organic community. The NOSB meets biannually to discuss recommendations for the USDA to aid in developing and refining organic standards. The online comment period is open through October 8, and online webinars regarding public comments will be hosted on October 28 and 30. The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reported June 2025 estimated fluid product sales. The U.S. sale of total organic milk products was 231 million pounds, down 1.1 percent from the previous year.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Conventional dairy ads increased by 5 percent and organic dairy ads decreased by 59 percent for week 34. On the conventional side, butter easily had the largest percent increase in total ads by commodity for week 34 compared to week 33. Cheese, ice cream, and yogurt decreased in total conventional ads this week. On the organic side, all surveyed commodities except cheese and yogurt decreased. Conventional milk ads increased by 53 percent, while organic milk ads decreased by 75 percent for the weekly survey. The difference in average price for a half gallon container of conventional milk compared to a half gallon container of organic milk is $3.09 for week 34.