Weekly global protein digest: Impact on Brazilian beef imports to US

21 November 2025

18 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

Europe

South America

North America

Asia

China to reimpose seafood import ban on Japan

Diplomatic row over Taiwan remarks prompts Beijing to reverse fisheries deal with Tokyo

China will re-impose a ban on imports of Japanese seafood products, as the diplomatic row over Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent comments on Taiwan escalated and officials in Beijing prepared for a protracted dispute.

The proposed ban would effectively return to one originally put in place in August 2023, following Japan’s release of treated wastewater from the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant.

Tokyo and Beijing had negotiated an agreement in September last year to resume imports, and Japan confirmed the first shipment of seafood to China less than two weeks ago.

Chinese officials reportedly justified the fresh ban by citing the need for further monitoring of Fukushima wastewater.

US Thanksgiving dinner costs dip, but farmers still struggling

AFBF survey shows 5% decline, with sides driving higher costs despite cheaper turkey

The 40th annual American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) Thanksgiving dinner survey (link) shows a 5% drop in the cost of a classic holiday meal for 10 people — now averaging $55.18 — but the decline doesn’t erase years of elevated food inflation nor the deep financial stress on U.S. farm families who produce the ingredients.
 
AFBF’s longstanding thanksgiving basket tradition. Since 1986, the Farm Bureau has relied on volunteer shoppers in all 50 states and Puerto Rico to price a standard basket of Thanksgiving staples: turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, peas, cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix, pie crusts, whole milk and whipping cream. This year’s results reflect a mixed environment — some relief for consumers but rising costs for growers.

Turkey prices fall sharply, no longer the cost driver. For the first time in decades, turkey accounts for less than 40% of the classic meal’s total cost — its lowest share since 2000. A 16-pound turkey averages $21.50, down 16% from 2024. Frozen turkey prices continued to decline, even as fresh turkey remains costly due to persistent HPAI challenges. U.S. turkey consumption keeps sliding, now roughly 13 pounds per person per year, down nearly 3 pounds in six years.

Side dishes now weigh heaviest on the receipt. Despite the overall decline, the cost burden has shifted toward side dishes. AFBF economists note that rising production costs — fertilizer, fuel, machinery, labor and land — are reshaping the price profile of the meal.

Biggest increases:

• Vegetable tray (carrots/celery): up 61%
• Sweet potatoes: up 37% (North Carolina hurricane damage cut yields)
• Fresh produce volatility tied to weather, labor shortages and transportation pressures remains a key factor.

Items that declined:

• Dinner rolls: –14.6%
• Stuffing mix: –9%
• Cranberries: –2.8%

Pumpkin pie ingredients were essentially unchanged.

US dairy herd on the rise

The U.S. milk cow herd is the biggest it has been in at least a quarter century, a positive sign as the meat industry suffers through tight supplies and consumers face record beef prices. The U.S. averaged 9.54 million milk cows in the third quarter, the most in data going back to 1998, according to USDA. That figure, which is about 200,000 more than in the year-earlier quarter, is also the steepest jump on record, Bloomberg reported. 

The boost in the milking herd shows U.S. dairy farmers are sending fewer cows to slaughter, opting instead to keep the animals for longer to breed beef-on-dairy calves destined to become meat in another year and a half. Those animals have become a profitable income stream amid an ongoing beef shortage. 

“This big jump in dairy cow numbers is largely due to the beef-on-dairy situation,” said Abbi Prins, a dairy and animal protein industry analyst at agricultural lender CoBank ACB and as reported by Bloomberg. “It makes more financial sense — the dairy producer is going to have more revenue coming from the beef-on-dairy calf rather than sending the female cow into her second career as a beef animal.” 

Tight cattle supplies in the U.S. have driven slaughter-weight animal prices to an all-time high this year, and availability is expected to remain limited. The shift with milk cows won’t be enough to turn around the cattle shortage issue, as dairy cows make up a small share of the broader U.S. herd. However, the significant increase could still help the U.S. calf crop see its first increase since 2018, helping to ease the tight supply situation.

Mexican border reopening: What it could mean for US cattle markets

Backlogged supply appears limited; any renewed imports likely to start slowly

US cattle markets have been on edge amid rumors that the Mexican border could soon reopen to cattle imports, prompting questions about how many animals might come north and how quickly. In a recent analysis for Cow Calf Corner, Derrell Peel outlines the likely impacts if cross-border cattle movements resume — and why expectations of a sudden surge are probably misplaced.

Background: Two decades of steady imports, interrupted by drought. According to Peel, U.S. imports of Mexican cattle have averaged 1.17 million head annually over the past 20 years, typically equal to 3.3% of the U.S. calf crop. Imports include steers and spayed heifers, with heifers normally representing about 15.6% of total volume.

But severe drought in Mexico in 2023 and 2024, combined with rising U.S. cattle prices, dramatically accelerated exports.

• 2023: 1.25 million head imported; 28.4% were spayed heifers.
• 2024 (before late-November border closure): another 1.25 million head, on pace for 1.45–2.0 million—potentially a record—with 37.1% spayed heifers, also a record.

Peel notes these unusually large — and heifer-heavy — exports signaled herd liquidation in Mexico and were not sustainable.

If the border had stayed open in 2025. Peel estimates that, absent the closure, 2025 imports would likely have dropped to the 0.95–1.0 million head range because fewer cattle were available. Only 229,055 head crossed during brief openings earlier this year.

How many cattle are actually available now? A central unknown is how many cattle that might have been exported have already been redirected into Mexico’s domestic market:

• Mexican feedlots appear to be substituting cheaper Mexican cattle for their typical Central American imports.
• Improved rainfall — with the 12-month average in Chihuahua at its highest since mid-2023 — has given producers more flexibility to hold cattle.
• Spayed heifer exports are essentially off the table because the export window is tight and uncertainty over border timing is high.
• There are signs of greater heifer retention in northern Mexico.

Peel estimates that only 200,000–400,000 head may currently be available for export— far less than some market rumors imply.

Even if the border opens, flows will be slow. Peel cautions that reopening the border won’t trigger an immediate surge. Export operations would ramp up gradually because:

• Border posts must re-staff and reactivate inspection protocols.
• Producers need time to prepare cattle and documentation.

• Additional inspections could further slow early movement.

  As a result, Peel says very few cattle would cross before year-end — “a trickle rather than a flood.”

Perspective: Impact on Brazilian beef imports to US

• Short-term: Modest recovery possible, but still blocked by 30–60% equivalent tariffs. Expect shipments to remain well below pre-August levels.
• 2025 outlook: Imports into the U.S. may rise slightly from current depressed volumes but will not regain the nearly 50% that was lost under the 76% duty regime.
• 2026 outlook: Slight growth possible if further tariff negotiations progress; otherwise, expect Brazil to remain a secondary supplier behind Australia, New Zealand, and Mexico.

If negotiators reach the provisional agreement this year, both sides expect a full, comprehensive pact to follow early next year.

US/Switzerland/Liechtenstein tariff deal cuts barriers for American beef, poultry and key farm goods

New framework lowers U.S. tariffs to 15% while opening Alpine markets to U.S. meat, nuts, fruits and other agricultural exports

The White House’s new trade framework with Switzerland and Liechtenstein delivers a sweeping overhaul of “reciprocal” tariffs — slashing U.S. duties on their exports from 39% to 15% — while securing zero tariffs or improved market access for a range of American agricultural products, including beef, poultry, bison, dairy, seafood and select fruits and nuts.

Announced Nov. 14, the deal pairs tariff reductions with promised future investment of roughly $200 billion from Switzerland and $300 million from Liechtenstein, alongside commitments to streamline entry requirements for several U.S. farm products.

Key agricultural market wins for the U.S. While much of the public focus has centered on pharmaceuticals — half of Switzerland’s exports — the fact sheet released by the White House highlights a strong agricultural component:

Poultry, beef, and bison: tariff-rate quotas. Switzerland and Liechtenstein will introduce tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) for U.S. poultry, beef, and bison, allowing in-quota shipments at lower or zero duties. These TRQs are particularly significant given the long-standing barriers and restrictive quotas that have limited U.S. meat shipments into high-value European markets.

Zero Tariffs for a Range of U.S. farm products. Products that will see fully eliminated tariffs include:

• Various fresh and dried nuts
• Fish and seafood
• Certain fruits

This mirrors concessions secured earlier this year from the European Union, providing U.S. exporters opportunities to expand in affluent, high-margin Alpine markets.

Regulatory easing for poultry and dairy. The agreement also commits Switzerland and Liechtenstein to:

• “Address restrictive measures on U.S. poultry”
• “Streamline requirements for U.S. dairy products”

These steps could ease long-standing sanitary and import-licensing hurdles that have historically held down U.S. shipments of poultry meat, eggs, cheeses, and other dairy goods.

What the U.S. conceded. Under the deal:

• U.S. tariffs on Swiss and Liechtenstein goods will fall to a flat 15%, replacing the previous 39% “reciprocal tariff.”
• Certain sensitive sectors — pharmaceuticals and semiconductors — will be capped so that combined MFN + Section 232 tariffs cannot exceed 15%
• Goods listed in Trump’s Sept. 5 executive order (coffee, bananas, cork, civil aircraft, and non-patented pharma) will be exempt from the reciprocal tariff entirely.

This is the same rate applied to the European Union and avoids the “stacking” of reciprocal and MFN tariffs that previously pushed effective duties significantly higher.

Investment and strategic alignment. Switzerland will facilitate $200 billion in U.S.-based investments over five years, while Liechtenstein will:

• Facilitate $300 million in investment
• Increase U.S. job creation by its private sector 50% over five years

A third of these investments are expected by the end of 2026. Future application of reciprocal tariffs will consider whether the countries meet these commitments.

The deal also includes digital trade principles — including a pledge not to impose digital services taxes — plus market access gains for U.S. medical devices and recognition of U.S. vehicle safety standards.

Next steps. Negotiators expect to finalize the full Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade in early 2026, locking in tariff cuts, farm-sector access, and the investment framework.

For American beef, poultry, dairy, nuts, fish, fruit and other ag exporters, the framework marks one of the largest Alpine-market openings in years — potentially reshaping U.S. meat and specialty-crop exports into high-income Switzerland and Liechtenstein.

Veteran analyst and trader: USDA’S 2026 livestock outlook is way off

Analyst warns agency is relying on backward-looking data and will miss supply by a wide margin

USDA’s decision to revise beef and pork production forecasts lower for 2026 is nothing new —"but it is also fundamentally flawed,” says a longtime livestock analyst and trader. The source says the agency continues to anchor its projections almost entirely on historical slaughter data rather than forward-looking supply indicators. As a result, the analyst predicts, “USDA is set to miss 2026 production by roughly 1 million head each in pork and beef.”

“We have already begun revising our own pork and beef production expectations higher from June 2026 forward, consistent with what we noted in late September and October,” the analyst continues. “That assessment still stands. USDA will almost certainly be forced to revise [Friday’s] and upcoming reports upward — likely dramatically — though the agency may not fully recognize this reality until January 2027 and beyond. The magnitude of that adjustment will surprise many, but it shouldn’t: USDA similarly misread current supply trends dating back to early-to-mid 2024 and has been playing catch-up ever since.”

Much of the industry chatter still insists that 2026 beef production will be extremely tight, with nothing having changed. “That argument is the same one we pushed back on in 2022, 2023 and 2024,” the analyst continued. “Yes — prices can still rally into the spring or summer of 2026. But as of fall 2025, the forecasting priority should shift toward identifying the bottom of the 2026 beef production trough, the impact of rising imports, and the prospect of growing U.S. production from mid-2026 forward. A major risk to the widely anticipated front-end market rally lies in Mexico’s expected reopening this winter. When that occurs, feedyards will shorten days on feed and move the roughly 300,000 head of cattle that have been carried with extended days for the past 18 months. That supply release will matter.”

Bottomline, according to the analyst: “If USDA continues to base its livestock WASDE outlook solely on backward-looking slaughter data, it raises a simple question: Why publish it at all?”

Trump calls out “Big Four” meatpackers as foreign-owned cartels

A Bloomberg opinion story over the weekend highlighted President Trump calling on the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the so-called Big Four meatpacking conglomerates “that have a hammerlock on beef processing, distribution and pricing in the U.S.” Trump’s allegations are serious: price fixing, collusion and market manipulation by what he calls “foreign-owned meatpacking cartels.” Together, the Big Four control 85% of the U.S. beef market, which the White House says amounts to monopoly power, allowing the companies to slash payments to farmers, reduce herd sizes, drive up consumer prices and jeopardize the nation’s food supply, said Bloomberg. 

“Action must be taken immediately to protect consumers, combat Illegal monopolies, and ensure these corporations are not criminally profiting at the expense of the American people,” Trump posted on his social network. The Big Four themselves have chosen not to comment on the investigation or the president’s allegations. But the Meat Institute, a trade group representing meat and poultry processors, said beef packers have been losing money because of tight cattle supplies and strong demand. Recent Trump administration actions have concerned many U.S. farmers—namely a trade showdown with China that prompted China to stop buying U.S. soybeans, and Trump threatening to import more beef from Argentina. 

President Trump may have won back a measure of farmer support by attacking four of the best-known names in agribusiness: Minnesota’s Cargill, one of the largest privately held companies in the country; Tyson Foods, a major meat and poultry producer out of Arkansas; and JBS in Colorado and National Beef Packing Company in Missouri. The latter two are owned by companies in Brazil but have their U.S. headquarters in those states. The U.S. beef market was valued at more than $108 billion in 2024, said the Bloomberg opinion piece.

JBS expanding its egg business

Mantiqueira USA Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of the joint venture between JBS and the founders of Mantiqueira Alimentos, entered into a binding agreement to acquire Hickman’s Egg Ranch, expanding the participation of the world’s largest meat producer in the egg sector, Bloomberg reported. The deal marks Mantiqueira’s entry into the U.S. market through the newly created Mantiqueira USA. 

“The acquisition marks a significant milestone in Mantiqueira USA’s long-term strategy to build a strong and scalable presence in the United States egg market,” JBS said in a statement on Saturday. The transaction is expected to close before year-end, pending customary closing conditions, according to statement. Hickman’s Egg Ranch is a leading egg producer based in Arizona and is one of the top 20 egg companies in the U.S. 

JBS, the world’s biggest meat producer, acquired 50% control of Mantiqueira Brasil, a privately held firm that’s South America’s top egg producer, in January. At the beginning of this year, JBS Chief Executive Officer Gilberto Tomazoni said in an interview with Bloomberg News that the interest in eggs has been driven by the sector’s strong expansion, both in Brazil, where the market has grown by double digits over the past couple of years, and internationally.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (11/14) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.5750. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.5275 (+0.0280). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.6425 and 40# blocks at $1.5400. The weekly average for barrels is $1.6605 (-0.0495) and blocks $1.5880 ( 0.0680). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1825. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.1625 (+0.0280). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.7800. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.7520 (+0.0380).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic butter demand varies from steady to strong in the East region, from light to stronger in the Central region, and is mixed in the Western region. Demand from international buyers varies from steady to strong. Export demand for competitively priced 82 percent butterfat butter is limiting domestic bulk butter load availability. Cream volumes are more than sufficient to cover contractual obligations and accommodate spot load requests. Spot cream demand from butter makers varies from steady to stronger. Butter churns are heavily active for the most part. Bulk butter overages range from 2 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese production in the East is steady as plants work to keep inventories in check. Bulk and processed cheese movement is stable, and retail demand continues at a steady pace. Export interest remains slow, with little change from recent weeks. Cheese makers in the Central region are keeping schedules steady, though some facilities are operating below capacity due to maintenance downtime. Retail orders are improving, while foodservice demand is softer. Cheese barrel volumes are tightening, even as other varieties remain available. Western manufacturers report sufficient milk volumes to support steady production. Spot load demand varies by plant, with some buyers more active than others. Domestic demand ranges from moderate to steady, while export activity continues to offer support. Some stakeholders note early interest in securing loads into early 2026. Availability of some varietal cheeses is mixed.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Nationwide, milk production is steady to stronger. Cooler temperatures are contributing to increased cow comfort. Contacts report milk output is up from last year. Milk components remain high, contributing to large volumes of cream in the market. Class I demand is strong, and some facilities are moving more loads of milk to bottling than they typically would. Class II demand is steady to stronger. Seasonal dairy products, like eggnog, are in demand from retail and food service outlets. Class III production is steady. Most manufacturers can use contract loads to meet demand. Spot sales of Class III milk are light. Sales for Class III spots are from $2 under to $1.5 over Class. Class IV production is steady. Butter producers are seasonally producing more butter but not taking spot loads of cream as contract loads are sufficient. Cream demand continues to strengthen for Class II and III. Condensed skim is tight in the Central and East regions and readily available in the West. Spot sales are strong, with sales ranging from flat to $0.20 over Class price. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 1.15 – 1.32 in the East; 1.08 – 1.29 in the Midwest; 1.00 – 1.21 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: In the Central and East regions, low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are unchanged, but prices increased in the West across the price range and at the top of the mostly price series. The top of the Central and East high heat NDM price range moved lower but the bottom was unchanged. High heat NDM prices decreased in the West across the price range. The bottom of the Central and East dry buttermilk price range moved higher. Buttermilk prices decreased at the top of the range in the Central and East region, and across the price range and mostly price series in the West. Dry whey prices increased across the price range in the East and at the bottom in the West. Increases were also seen across both the Central and West mostly price series this week. The top of the lactose mostly price series moved higher, but prices were unchanged at the bottom of the mostly price series and across the range. The price range for whey protein concentrate 34% expanded, as prices decreased at the bottom and increased at the top. Prices for dry whole milk fell across the range. Both acid and rennet casein prices are unchanged.

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The Pennsylvania Monthly Organic Dairy Report covering August 2025 showed the weighted average price for fluid milk, total volume of milk produced, average daily production per cow, and average monthly production per cow decreased from the prior month. The Vermont Monthly Organic Dairy Report covering August 2025 showed the weighted average price for fluid milk decreased, total volume of milk produced, average daily production per cow, and average monthly production per cow decreased from the prior month. In a recent report from a Pacific Northwest livestock auction, the top 10 organic cull cows and the overall average for organic cull cows traded lower than conventional cull cows. Total organic ads increased in the two retail surveys released in November. The most advertised organic commodity is milk.

SEPTEMBER MILK PRODUCTION (NASS): Milk production in the 24 major States during September totaled 18.3 billion pounds, up 4.2 percent from September 2024. August revised production, at 18.8 billion pounds, was up 3.6 percent from August 2024. The August revision represented an increase of 44 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 1,999 pounds for September, 30 pounds above September 2024. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 9.15 million head, 235,000 head more than September 2024, and 38,000 head more than August 2025.

US NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: In the week 46 retail dairy survey, conventional ads are up 18 percent, and organic ads increased 19 percent. Yogurt is the most advertised conventional commodity, and total ads are up 35 percent. The most advertised organic commodity, milk, appeared in 45 percent more ads. Organic yogurt are down 90 percent. The most advertised conventional yogurt product is 4-6-ounce Greek. Conventional milk ads are up 13 percent and organic milk ads increased 45 percent.