Weekly global protein digest: Rollins holds firm on cattle border closure amid screwworm threat
9 November 2025
13 minute read
By: Expanded daily trading limits Thursday for beleaguered cattle futures markets
December live cattle on Wednesday fell the $7.25 daily limit to $220.525 and hit a 3.5-month low. January feeder cattle fell the daily trading limit of $9.25 to $319.975 and hit a three-month low. Daily trading limits will be expanded today. The live and feeder cattle futures markets Wednesday saw heavy technical selling pressure before locking down the daily trading limits. Price action this week has seen bearish downside “breakouts” from pennant patterns that formed on the daily bar charts for live and feeder cattle futures. Measuring implications from these bearish chart patterns suggest significantly more downside price potential in both markets in the near term. Meantime, World Weather Inc. says said extreme low temperatures this weekend may slip to the upper single digits and teens in a part of the northern Plains and immediate neighboring areas, especially if light snow accumulates in the region—potentially causing some livestock stress. Low temperatures in the remainder of the northern and central Plains and western Midwest will slip to the teens and 20s, with Sunday coldest in the northern and central Plains and the western Midwest coldest Monday. USDA Wednesday reported very light cash cattle trading activity at an average of $235.00. Last week’s USDA average cash cattle trade was $230.86 versus the week prior’s average of $237.89.
Brazil’s pork sector set to lead animal protein growth through 2030
Rabobank and Safras & Mercado see poultry margins tightening as global supply expands
Brazil’s pork industry is emerging as the country’s strongest growth driver among animal proteins, with analysts forecasting sustained expansion through the next decade even as poultry producers face margin pressure from rising global supply.
Rabobank projects that chicken meat output will rise 2% in Brazil in 2026, compared with 1.6% in the U.S. and up to 2% in the EU — a pace that could weigh on international prices. Despite this, Brazil’s export outlook remains firm: consultancy Safras & Mercado expects the country to ship 5.5 million tonnes of chicken meat in 2026, aided by a more stable sanitary environment after avian flu disruptions earlier this year. “Lower prices show Brazil is using the international market to relieve domestic supply pressure,” said Fernando Iglesias, animal protein analyst at Safras.
By contrast, pork is forecast to deliver the fastest and most durable growth, with exports expected to expand 3.5%–7% annually through 2030. Iglesias called pork “the market with the highest potential to open new destinations and consolidate Brazil as one of the world’s top suppliers,” predicting the country will close 2025 as the world’s third-largest pork exporter.
At home, both poultry and pork sectors are expected to gain from tighter beef supplies next year — a dynamic that should boost domestic demand for lower-cost proteins.
Virginia Cattlemen’s Association (VCA) disputes North American Meat Institute’s (NAMI) recent report
The VCA says The Reality of Beef and Cattle Markets, arguing omits crucial economic context that paints an incomplete picture of conditions facing producers. In a sharply worded critique titled “Inconvenient Truths Ignored in Meat Institute’s Cattle Market Report,” VCA Executive Director Brandon Reeves compares the report’s claims to a livestock sale pitch that highlights selective traits while ignoring structural flaws. Link to VCA report.
Inflation-Adjusted Prices Tell a Different Story
The NAMI report states that cattle prices were “at record levels for most of 2023,” surpassing the 2014–2015 highs. Reeves counters that this comparison ignores inflation. Adjusting for inflation, he notes, the 2014 average of about $240 per hundredweight (cwt) equates to roughly $330/cwt in 2025 dollars. The CME Feeder Cattle Index did not touch that level until mid-2025 and has since traded lower. He adds that producers face mounting costs, meaning real income gains have lagged despite nominal price increases.
Reeves also cites industry data showing that packers have experienced profitable spot margins near $150 per head at different times during this summer and fall despite higher cattle costs — a sign, he argues, that profitability across the supply chain remains uneven.
Producers’ Share Still Below Historical Norms
Another “inconvenient truth,” Reeves writes, involves producers’ share of the retail beef dollar. The NAMI report highlighted a 55% share in August 2025, but Reeves points out that this still falls below the 58% share recorded in November 2014 and far below the levels seen through the 1970s to early 1990s, when producers often captured more than two-thirds of retail value.
He argues that while packers and retailers can adjust margins weekly or even daily, cattle producers must bear the cost of raising animals over years — a dynamic that continues to erode producer leverage.
Consumer Demand: More Than Formula Pricing
Reeves also challenges NAMI’s attribution of stronger consumer demand and beef quality to the “broad adoption of value-based marketing” and formula pricing models. While he acknowledges quality improvements, he credits multiple factors — including genetic gains, more days on feed, and checkoff-funded marketing — as more significant drivers. “Good cattle are good cattle regardless of how they are sold,” he writes, adding that the industry should preserve price discovery and negotiation power rather than relying too heavily on packer-controlled pricing formulas.
Despite his criticism, Reeves emphasizes that producers “need everyone in the supply chain to be successful.” His conclusion quotes radio legend Paul Harvey: “And now you know the rest of the story.”
Rollins holds firm on cattle border closure amid screwworm threat
Rollins tells Reuters she’s “not yet comfortable” reopening ports, praises Mexico’s containment progress
The U.S. is not yet ready to reopen its border to Mexican cattle amid an outbreak of the flesh-eating New World screwworm parasite, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told Reuters in an exclusive interview Monday, even as she praised Mexico’s stepped-up containment efforts.
Speaking in Mexico City following meetings with President Claudia Sheinbaum and other officials, Rollins said President Donald Trump was “very focused” on reopening the border, which has been largely closed to Mexican livestock since May.
“We’re still not at the point where I am comfortable opening the ports, but I think every day that goes by we get a little bit closer,” Rollins said. “I want to have every confidence that we have overturned every stone, that we understand every nuance, that we are deploying every tool in the toolkit.”
Rollins declined to offer a timeline for reopening but said she would brief senior U.S. officials Wednesday and continue discussions with Trump about the screwworm situation.
The outbreak, which originated in Central America, has spread northward into Mexico, threatening severe losses to the livestock industries on both sides of the border. USDA estimates the pest could cause $1.8 billion in economic damage to Texas alone if it crosses into the United States.
Rollins met Monday (Nov. 3) in Mexico City with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, joined by Agriculture Minister Julio Berdegué, Energy Minister Luz Elena González Escobar, and U.S. Ambassador Ronald Johnson, according to Mexico’s Milenio. The meeting lasted around 40 minutes.
Berdegué described the discussions, which took place at the National Palace, as “extremely positive and constructive,” noting that “all the topics on the bilateral agenda were reviewed.” Mexico’s Foreign Ministry said Rollins had requested the session, and that Sheinbaum emphasized reopening the U.S. border to livestock exports as a “priority for the Mexican government.”
Both sides reaffirmed the importance of maintaining “permanent communication channels at the highest level” between relevant authorities. However, there has been no indication of any change in the ongoing closure of the U.S. border to cattle imports from Mexico, which remains under review.
Officials say they have settled on short-term priorities and action items that could underpin decisions on resuming cattle exports — without assigning any dates or concrete next steps.
Meatpacker JBS pays hefty fine to New York state
JBS SA, the world’s largest meatpacker, has agreed to pay $1.1 million to settle a lawsuit by the state of New York over allegations the company misled the public about reducing the impact of its operations on the environment. As part of the settlement, JBS agreed to revise language related to the company’s environmental marketing and produce annual reports to the New York Attorney General's office. The $1.1 million payment will be made to Cornell University’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences’ New York Soil Health and Resiliency Program for the purpose of “supporting climate-smart agriculture.” In a statement, JBS said the settlement “does not reflect an admission of wrongdoing.” The company’s USA unit said it “remains driven to advance sustainable agriculture. We maintain a continued focus on investing in practical solutions that strengthen the resilience of the food system,” said JBS and as reported by Bloomberg.
U.S. meat exporters welcome progress in China trade talks
USMEF says tariff and port fee suspensions could restore key pork and beef market access
U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) praises new progress in U.S./China trade negotiations
This comes following last week’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. In a statement Sunday, USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom said the organization is “encouraged by the progress being made” and thanked the Trump administration for prioritizing agricultural exports.
Halstrom noted that if China suspends all retaliatory tariffs and non-tariff countermeasures imposed since March 4, U.S. pork would become significantly more competitive in the Chinese market. He added that renewal of expired beef plant and cold storage registrations would restore access to a “critical beef export market,” while also urging Beijing to address the recent delisting of certain U.S. beef plants for “technical violations.”
USMEF also welcomed the one-year pause on port service fees and maritime countermeasures, saying the suspension will help reduce shipping costs for U.S. exporters. However, Halstrom urged that efforts to rebuild the U.S. maritime sector should focus on incentivizing investment rather than raising costs for exporters and cargo owners.
HPAI confirmations continue in US
Confirmed cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continue to be reported by USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) with 62 confirmed flocks – 29 commercial flocks and 33 backyard flocks – and a total of 3.85 million birds affected over the past 30 days. Most of the cases remain in turkey operations but the past week has seen cases in other commercial operations – 139,000 birds in a commercial broiler production operation in Gordon County, Georgia, on Oct. 24 and 231,000 birds in a commercial table egg layer flock in Sonoma County, California, on Oct. 28.
Weekly USDA dairy report
BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.6100. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.5800 (+0.0060). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.8050 and 40# blocks at $1.7675. The weekly average for barrels is $1.8120 (+0.0465) and blocks $1.8080 (+0.0475). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1325. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.1575 (+0.0315). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.7100. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.7000 (+0.0230).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic butter demand is strong in the East, steady in the West, and light in the Central region. Export demand is steady in the East region and strong in other regions. Contacts in the Central and Western regions say there is plenty of cream available for churning. In the Central region, demand for cream is strengthening due to increasing production of cream cheese and other Class II products, but spot interest is lighter from butter makers. Butter makers are running busy schedules across the country. Spot loads of 80 percent butterfat butter are available, while inventories of 82 percent butterfat butter remain tight, primarily due to continued interest from international buyers. Bulk butter overages range from 2 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Eastern cheese markets remain balanced as strong retail and bulk sales continue to absorb available supplies. Production is steady, supported by ample milk and consistent schedules. Inventories are comfortable, though lighter than earlier in the month, and export interest is holding firm. Market participants expect stable conditions as the year winds down. Cheese manufacturers in the Central region report lighter output this week as some plants extend downtime. Milk is accessible, but Class I demand is drawing volumes away from cheese vats. Mozzarella sales are firm, while barrel inventories have tightened further. Export demand remains a bright spot, offsetting slower spot activity in domestic channels. In the West, milk availability continues to meet processing needs, keeping production steady to stronger. Cheese makers remain focused on meeting contract volumes, while retail and food service demand is described as subdued. Exports are mixed, but still competitive on price, and spot loads are generally available with some tightening in select varieties.
FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Milk output at the farm continues to be strong nationwide. Some regions note that milk production is increasing, while others report a steady state. Contacts mention year over-year increases in volume. Milk components are high, contributing to higher amounts of cream on the market. Class I demand is strong. Bottlers in the Southeast are bringing in milk from other regions to supplement their supplies. Class II demand is strong and increasing. Seasonal dairy products, such as eggnog, and dairy-based baking ingredients are in full production, taking some of the available cream off the market. Class III production is steady and spot milk sales are lighter this week. Spot prices range from flat to $2-over. Class IV production is steady. Many butter makers are limiting cream purchases as internal volumes are sufficient for current production schedules. Spot cream is readily available in all regions. Condensed skim demand is leveling out, and supply is steady with no noted increases in availability. Spot prices for condensed skim range from flat to $0.15 over Class price.
DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: In the West, low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices decreased across the full price range and mostly price series. Prices increased across both the range and mostly price series in the Central and East regions. Prices increased at the bottom of the high heat NDM price range in the West but were unchanged at the top. Prices remained unchanged across the range in the East and Central regions. Spot loads are available in the West, but inventories are tight in the Central and East regions. The bottom of the West dry buttermilk price range moved lower, but prices increased slightly at the top. The mostly prices series for dry buttermilk in the West as well as the price range for the Central and East regions held steady. Both ends of the dry whole milk price range decreased this week. Dry whey prices held steady across the range in the Central region and at the top of the price range in the Northeast but increased at the bottom of the Northeast price range. The mostly range increased in the Central and West regions. Prices increased at the bottom of the whey protein concentrate 34% range but were otherwise unchanged. Lactose prices were unchanged at the bottom of the range and across the mostly price series but decreased at the top of the range. Prices for rennet casein were unchanged. The price range for acid casein tightened, as the bottom moved higher and the top shifted lower.
ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: Employees at NOP remained furloughed past October 22, leading to the cancellation of the Fall 2025 NOSB meeting and public comment webinars. Federal Milk Market Order 1 reports utilization of types of organic milk by regulated plants. During September 2025, organic whole milk utilization was up from the previous year.
MARKET SUMMARY AND UTILIZATION: 3During September, 11.5 billion pounds of milk were received from Federally pooled producers. This volume of milk is 7.9 percent higher than the 2024 volume. Regulated handlers utilized 3.4 billion pounds of producer milk in Class I products, up 3.1 percent when compared to the previous year. The all-market average Class utilization percentages were: Class I = 30%, Class II = 17%, Class III = 32%, Class IV = 21%. The weighted average statistical uniform price was $18.63 per cwt, 0.72 lower than last month and $4.45 lower than last year.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: The week 44 retail dairy survey contains fewer conventional ads than the prior week, but organic ads are nearly unchanged. Cheese is the most advertised conventional dairy commodity, while milk is the most advertised in the organic aisle. Total ads for conventional cheese decreased in this week's survey, while organic cheese ads increased. Conventional milk ads grew significantly, but organic milk ads declined. In the week 44 retail dairy survey, organic ads were relatively unchanged, but organic ads declined in the week 43 survey. Most organic commodities present in the week 43 retail survey appeared in more ads this week. The only organic commodities appearing in fewer ads this week are milk and flavored milk.
