Weekly global protein digest: Bipartisan backlash builds against Trump’s Argentina beef plan

31 October 2025

19 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

South America

North America

US Senate finance panel grills USTR nominee on meat

Dr. Julie Callahan, President Trump’s nominee to serve as Chief Agricultural Negotiator at the Office of the US Trade Representative, faced pointed questions from senators about the administration’s trade strategy with Argentina during a contentious Senate Finance Committee hearing on Oct. 29. The scope of the hearing provided a full view of US agricultural trade priorities under the Trump administration’s reciprocal-trade framework.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) both raised concerns about the administration’s plan to increase Argentine beef imports under an expanded tariff-rate quota (TRQ). Cruz said there was “unanimity in the room that we should be standing strongly with our cattle ranchers.” Barrasso pressed Callahan on the timing and size of the planned 80 000-ton TRQ increase and asked how she would ensure that “U.S. ranchers aren’t undercut by lower-standard imports.”

In response to Barrasso’s questions, she said the talks with Argentina are “ongoing” and that her goal is to “reverse the US agricultural trade deficit” through agreements on reciprocal trade that would turn deficits into surpluses and “ensure that US cattlemen have access to markets around the world.” This phrasing — specifically her emphasis on reciprocal trade and reversing the deficit — clearly reflects a US intent to obtain concessions from Argentina in exchange for expanded access.

Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) devoted a significant portion of his questioning to the collapse in U.S. beef exports to China since March. Daines said that foreign competitors — notably Australia and Brazil — were “filling the void” left by reduced U.S. shipments. He asked: “Dr. Callahan, are we making any progress in reopening the China market, the second-largest beef export market in the world, or finding additional markets for U.S. beef?”

Callahan’s response: She acknowledged the sharp decline and said, “If confirmed, I am committed to reopening China’s market to US beef. China’s behavior can be explained only with one word — retaliation.”

She added that during President Trump’s first term, USTR provided the White House with weekly reports on China’s compliance under the Phase One trade deal and that she intends to “reverse that trend and rebuild access to the Chinese market.”

Support from Republicans and Industry Concerns

Republican senators largely backed Callahan’s broader trade philosophy but sought assurances that Argentine imports would not depress domestic cattle prices. Sen. Barrasso cited ranchers’ fears of an “announcement related to Argentina” and asked how she would protect U.S. producers. Callahan replied that all current negotiations “are intended to reverse the U.S. agricultural trade deficit” and to ensure “U.S. cattlemen have access to markets around the world.” She said the Argentina beef talks remain “ongoing” and without a fixed timeline.

Barrasso also questioned her about the struggling U.S. sheep industry. Callahan said she had met with Utah producers and was “committed to ensuring that American lamb producers have a fair shake,” adding that imports were “out-competing” domestic growers and that she aimed “to see that reversed.”

Broader Meat Trade and Market Access

In her opening statement, Callahan grouped beef, pork and poultry together when outlining her trade priorities, noting that US meat exports face a mix of tariff and sanitary-phytosanitary barriers. She said she would work to:

• eliminate “unjustified restrictions on U.S. meat,”
• press for science-based import protocols, and
• expand access in markets such as Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia.

US Sheep Industry

At the end of Barrasso’s questioning, he pivoted to the sheep industry, saying it had suffered from import competition. Callahan said she had met with producers in Utah and promised to ensure that “American lamb producers have a fair shake” and that she wanted “to see that reversed as well.”

Mexico, US advance talks on cattle border reopening — but no date set

Berdegue says progress made with USDA’s Rollins on sterile fly production; NWS Chiapas plant key to lifting restrictions

Mexican Agriculture Minister Julio Berdegue said after a virtual meeting with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins that while discussions advanced on reopening the U.S. border to Mexican cattle, no target date has yet been set.

Berdegue noted that both governments are focused on strengthening efforts to control the New World screwworm (NWS), a key condition for resuming live cattle exports to the United States. He said Mexico will begin testing modular mobile plants capable of producing up to 20 million additional sterile flies per week, boosting total capacity ahead of the long-delayed reopening.

The minister also confirmed work continues to bring the NWS production plant in Chiapas state fully online, designed to generate 100 million sterile flies weekly.

“We will only be able to get it out of the country once we have the additional 100 million flies,” Berdegue said during President Claudia Sheinbaum’s morning press briefing.

Berdegue’s comments reinforced expectations that the U.S. border reopening for Mexican cattle exports would not occur immediately, as both sides must first demonstrate sufficient screwworm control capacity to ensure animal health safeguards.

Bipartisan backlash builds against Trump’s Argentina beef plan

Trump’s plan to expand Argentine imports and financial aid sparks rare pushback from both GOP farm-state lawmakers and Senate Democrats

The Trump administration’s proposal to dramatically expand beef imports from Argentina has triggered sharp opposition from cattle-state Republicans, Senate Democrats and rancher groups, who argue the move undermines domestic producers and contradicts the administration’s “America First” trade agenda.

The plan will reportedly quadruple Argentina’s beef import quota to 80,000 metric tons, primarily lean trimmings used in ground beef. The White House frames the change to ease food inflation and bolster supply amid a historic cattle shortage (America First for consumers), but lawmakers say it risks undercutting U.S. ranchers who are just beginning to recover from years of drought and high input costs.

Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) told reporters that several members of the Congressional Beef Caucus raised their concerns directly with Vice President JD Vance, who “received the message” and pledged to relay it to President Trump. “Let’s just say message received,” Daines said. But Trump’s comments in Japan today is not helping the situation up on Capitol Hill. Trump said prices are down “except for the beef, which I’ll get down.” Trump said maybe ranchers are “doing too good now, but we want them to do well, but we have to get the beef prices down.” The president made the remarks during a dinner with business leaders in Tokyo

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) warned that expanding imports “would only exacerbate the problem and hurt domestic producers,” calling for an “America First game plan that prioritizes American ranchers.” Rep. Mark Alford (R-Mo.) echoed those concerns, labeling the plan “misguided.”

House Ways & Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) has added to the chorus of criticism, saying he personally urged Trump to abandon the import plan. Smith warned that expanding Argentine beef imports would do little to lower grocery prices while “further squeezing U.S. ranchers already facing drought, high feed costs, and herd reductions.”

“While I agree with the president that, despite lower inflation, the cost of food is still too high for many working families, I strongly disagree with the idea that purchasing beef from Argentina will have a meaningful impact on prices at the store,” Smith said in remarks reported by Inside U.S. Trade.

Smith’s intervention underscores deepening divisions among farm-state Republicans over the administration’s reliance on foreign sourcing to curb food inflation. Industry groups and lawmakers say the policy contradicts Trump’s “America First” agenda and could deter investment in rebuilding U.S. herds and processing capacity.

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats led by Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) are pressing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to reconsider a $20 billion aid package to Argentina, arguing it prioritizes foreign nations over U.S. farmers. In a letter co-signed by 19 Democrats — including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) — the senators warned that the aid package “threatens to continue to close markets for American farmers” already burdened by tariff-driven inflation and weaker export demand. They pointed to falling Chinese purchases of U.S. grains, writing that “in a typical year China would have normally booked 15.4 million metric tons of soybeans, corn, wheat, and sorghum by the end of August. This year there have been no outstanding sales.” The senators urged Bessent to “immediately reconsider further aid to Argentina and instead focus on restoring and expanding long-term export market access for American farmers.”

Together, the objections from Smith and other Republicans and Senate Democrats represent a rare bipartisan convergence linking trade, aid, and rural economics—challenging the administration’s twin efforts to fight food inflation and deepen Latin American partnerships.

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association joined the opposition, with CEO Colin Woodall saying the policy “harms U.S. cattle producers and does nothing to lower grocery prices.”

Meanwhile, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins defended the plan, arguing that easing import restrictions could help lower beef prices for consumers while also addressing processing concentration among a handful of dominant packers.

Analysts note that Argentina currently supplies only about 2% of U.S. beef imports, meaning the quota expansion may have limited immediate impact on retail prices. Still, the optics have drawn scrutiny: ranchers in the Plains states described the move as a “gut punch” after finally seeing stronger prices this year.

Beyond the economics, the debate underscores a political risk for the Trump administration: alienating rural constituencies that form the backbone of Trump’s electoral coalition. Lawmakers say they will continue pressing the White House to reconsider the policy and restore confidence in domestic beef producers.

What's next?

The administration is expected to release final details of the Argentina beef import plan soon, including the quota size, tariff rates, and safeguard measures.

Congressional action: Lawmakers are preparing letters, hearings, and legislation to seek transparency or changes to the plan, including country-of-origin labeling (COOL) reforms, packer competition oversight, and origin disclosure rules.

Domestic herd support: Implementation of cattle-herd expansion programs, feedlot support, and pasture recovery efforts will be critical to determining whether domestic supply can recover as the administration intends.

Market signals: Over the next 6–12 months, analysts will closely watch retail and wholesale beef prices to assess whether expanded imports genuinely reduce consumer costs—or merely reinforce packer dominance while undercutting U.S. ranchers.

The Argentine beef trade actions are symbolic in nature — 80,000 MT would only be 4% of current beef imports of around 2 MMT and just over 1/2% of current total beef consumption. That suggests the price moves are more speculative than due to fundamentals. Some of it is that the markets also had become overbought and were ripe for a correction.

The drop in feeder cattle futures is occurring amid broader market stress (liquidation, policy uncertainty, cattle supply/demand shifts) and cannot be attributed solely to the policy comment.

The other factor that has been weighing on feeder cattle futures: reports on the Mexican ag minister coming to the U.S. to negotiate a reopening of the border. That would open direct competition for domestically raised feeders. There is also market speculation that the U.S. could alter tariffs on Brazil in the wake of the Trump-Lula meeting.

Market implications

A nearly 15% decline in feeder cattle futures signals growing concern among market participants about either oversupply, weaker feeder‐cattle demand (for finishing), or policy risk (e.g., beef‐price pressure, import changes) — or some combination thereof.

For producers, sharper losses in feeder futures increase hedging cost and basis risk; some may cut back placements or alter feeding strategies.

For the stockings side: bulls (long positions) are under pressure, and stabilization efforts will likely focus on whether cash cattle auctions, finishing margins and cattle rancher sentiment show signs of support.

From a policy angle: if this futures slide persists, it raises questions about whether the administration’s efforts to reduce beef prices might unintentionally compress upstream prices (feeder/finishing) and risk rancher margin stability.

OUTLOOK: If the policy narrative continues to drive uncertainty around beef pricing, then further downside risk exists in feeder futures — especially if cash market fundamentals weaken or if speculative long liquidation accelerates.

The next key test will come in early November, when cash auction prices and placement data offer clues about whether the market can stabilize or faces another leg lower.

U.S. pork group urges FDA to reconsider ‘ultra-processed’ label ahead of dietary guidelines

Pork producers call for a nutrition-focused framework to guide food labeling and protect consumer access to safe, nutrient-rich products.

As the Food and Drug Administration prepares its formal definition of “ultra-processed foods” in advance of the new Dietary Guidelines for Americans, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) is urging the agency to take a more balanced, science-based approach that focuses on nutritional value rather than manufacturing methods.

In a statement submitted to the Trump administration and FDA, NPPC warned that an overly broad or poorly defined “ultra-processed” category could unfairly stigmatize pork products and other safe, nutrient-dense foods. The group called on FDA to avoid relying on the controversial NOVA classification system, which categorizes foods based primarily on how they are processed rather than their health benefits.

Foods should not be labeled “ultra-processed” simply because they include ingredients that enhance food safety, shelf stability, or nutrient availability, NPPC emphasized — all of which protect public health and ensure high-quality protein reaches consumers. The group also urged FDA to ensure any definition aligns with the agency’s existing Standards of Identity, which govern what specific foods must contain and how they are formulated.

Given the lack of consensus on what constitutes “ultra-processed,” NPPC encouraged FDA to “elevate the importance of nutritional composition” and avoid penalizing safe food processing techniques. As an alternative, NPPC proposed using the term “discretionary foods” to describe items of lower nutritional quality — a framework that would refocus dietary policy on nutrition rather than processing labels.

NPPC: Trump opens Malaysian market to US pork exports

Trade deal hailed by pork producers as a major win for American agriculture and rural jobs

President Donald Trump has signed new trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia, marking a significant victory for U.S. pork producers. The Malaysia deal, in particular, offers enormous potential for America’s more than 60,000 pork producers by eliminating export barriers and expanding market access. “America’s pork producers are grateful to President Trump for increasing market access for U.S. pork to Malaysia,” said NPPC President Duane Stateler, a pork producer from Ohio. “More than 25% of U.S. pork production is exported, so producers count on exports to help keep their farms afloat, especially in times of uncertainty.”

Under the agreement, all U.S. facilities listed in the FSIS Meat, Poultry and Egg Product Inspection Directory will be eligible to export to Malaysia without additional registration requirements. The country also agreed to accept standard FSIS export certificates and, within 15 months, recognize the U.S. African Swine Fever protection zone to complete a regionalization deal. Cambodia signed on to similar terms.

NPPC credited USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer, Assistant USTR Julie Callahan, and USDA technical teams for facilitating the breakthrough.

U.S. pork exports to Malaysia reached $24.5 million in 2024, up 1,700% over the past five years, despite only eight U.S. plants being eligible for export. The sector supports over 140,000 American jobs and adds $66 in export value per hog marketed.

NPPC emphasized pork producers rely on trade stability: “American pork producers need certainty and stability — now as much as ever — and NPPC will continue to engage with the administration and international partners to maintain and open new market access for U.S. pork.”

FDA grants emergency use for Elanco’s flea and tick drug to treat New World Screwworm in dogs

First-ever authorization for NWS treatment highlights FDA’s proactive stance on emerging animal health threats

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted an emergency use authorization to Elanco Animal Health for its Credelio (lotilaner) chewable tablets to treat dogs infected with New World Screwworm (NWS) — marking the first time the agency has approved a treatment for NWS under emergency use provisions. FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said the decision underscores the agency’s commitment to act quickly against emerging threats: “When it comes to emerging animal health threats, we need to be proactive, not reactive.”

The FDA determined that Credelio “could be effective in treating NWS in dogs and puppies, and the known and potential benefits of the product outweigh its known and potential risks.” Originally approved in 2018 for flea and tick control, the drug’s emergency authorization allows veterinarians to use it against NWS — a dangerous parasitic infestation that can cause severe wounds or death if untreated.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (10/24) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.6025. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.5740 (-0.0565). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.7700 and 40# blocks at $1.7775. The weekly average for barrels is $1.7655 (+0.0255) and blocks $1.7605 (+0.0350). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1600. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.1260 (+0.0065). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.6900. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.6770 (+0.0390).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic butter demand varies from light to steady for the Central region, remains steady in the West region, and is somewhat stronger in the East region. Export demand is steady in the East region and strong in the remaining parts of the country. Central and West region contacts report demands are outpacing production. Seasonal milk production and strong fat components continue to provide plenty of cream to accommodate heavily active churns. Production schedules are strong, aside from some Central region plant managers reporting downtime. 80 percent butterfat butter loads are widely available. Bulk butter overages range from 2 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Eastern cheese production is steady. Retail sales are seasonally strong, and bulk cheese production remains consistent. Inventory positions are comfortable heading into late October. Cheese producers in the Central region report varied schedules as some plants incur maintenance downtime, while others run steadily. Demand is steady, supported by firm export interest and moderate retail activity. Barrel supplies tightened slightly, while mozzarella sales continue to move well. Across Western plants, milk availability continues to meet production needs, allowing manufacturers to keep schedules on track. Most processors are focused on fulfilling contract orders while domestic demand holds steady and exports remain mixed.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Milk output varies by region this week. In the East and West regions, milk output is seasonally increasing as southern states in the regions are now experiencing colder temperatures and, as a result, better cow comfort, leading to more milk. Milk production in the Central region is steady. Class I manufacturing is steady to strong. Some bottling facilities are taking milk from other manufacturers to supplement contract loads. Class II demand is seasonally strong. Dairy-based baking ingredients, such as heavy whipping cream and condensed milk, are experiencing increased demand for the upcoming holiday season. Class III demand varies by region. The East is experiencing stronger than expected demand while the other regions have steady to lighter demand. Class III spot demand is light. Class IV demand is steady. Butter manufacturing is up seasonally, with some facilities operating churns seven days a week. Condensed skim production is down but demand is steady. Condensed skim prices range from flat market to $0.05 over Class price. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 1.10 – 1.35 in the East; 1.08 – 1.28 in the Midwest; 0.90 – 1.18 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices declined in all regions this week. Spot loads are available in the West, but inventories are tighter in the East and Central regions. Domestic demand is steady to lighter. High heat NDM prices decreased at the bottom while holding steady at the top. In the West, dry buttermilk prices decreased across the mostly price series (mostly) and at the top of the range. The bottom of the West price range held steady. Dry buttermilk prices were unchanged across the range in the Central and East regions. Dry whole milk prices decreased across the range. Dry whey prices were unchanged in the West and at the bottom of the East price range. Dry whey prices increased at the top of the range in the East, and across the Central region price range and mostly. Lower prices for whey protein concentrate 34%, were reported at the bottom of the range, but higher prices at the top. The mostly was unchanged. The bottom of the lactose mostly moved higher, while prices were unchanged at the top of the mostly and across the price range. Acid and rennet casein prices were unchanged.

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS: 

WEST EUROPE: Milk prices dropped sharply in September, led by declines in Germany and the Netherlands. Processors in Poland plan further cuts for October, while a major leading European dairy cooperative prepares another price adjustment. Ukraine is working to steady its market, but volatility and weak demand remains. Tight margins and rising costs are squeezing producers heading into Q4. 

EAST EUROPE: Milk prices remained steady throughout summer before slipping in September. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and war-related trade pressures continue, but Ukraine's dairy sector is expanding-boosting quality, rebuilding capacity, aligning with EU standards, and targeting full compliance by 2030. 

OCEANIA: 

AUSTRALIA: The September 2025 Production Inputs Monitor Report was recently released by Dairy Australia. Drought conditions continued in key dairy regions. September rainfall totals in Victoria, Australia's largest milk-producing region, were notably lower than historical averages. Water-storage levels remained below year-ago levels in most areas, keeping water prices elevated compared to this time last year.

NEW ZEALAND: Milk production data from New Zealand for September 2025 were recently released. These data show total September 2025 production was 2.67 million metric tons, up 2.5 percent compared to a year earlier. During September 2025, total milk solids production increased by 3.4 percent from the previous year to 228.8 million kilograms. Although September milk production did not break a record on a tonnage basis this month, milk solids output set a record for the fifth month in a row 

SOUTH AMERICA: The Latin American dairy market is currently in a bearish, supply-heavy phase, with milk production rising by 4.3% year-to-date (excluding Brazil) as the Southern Hemisphere approaches its peak. Weather conditions remain favorable, however, there is a greater than 70% probability of La Niña developing later in 2025, potentially drying pastures. Consumer demand is stronger for domestically-produced dairy products rather than imported dairy items, influenced by real incomes, inflation, and employment. Households are favoring value-focused staples and store brands over premium dairy items.

NOVEMBER ADVANCED PRICES (NASS): Base Class I Price: The base Class I price for November 2025 is $16.75 per cwt, a decrease of $1.29 per cwt when compared to October 2025. A Class I differential for each order's principle pricing point (county) is added to the base price to determine the Class I Price. Class I Extended Shelf Life (ESL) Adjustment was $0.01 per hundredweight for the month of November 2025. The price per hundredweight decreased $0.96 from the previous month. Class II Price Information: For November 2025, the advanced Class IV skim milk pricing factor is $8.15 per cwt, the Class II skim milk price is $8.85 per cwt, and the Class II nonfat solids price is $0.9833 per pound. Product Price Averages: The two-week product price averages for November 2025 are: butter $1.7617, nonfat dry milk $1.1546, cheese $1.7245, and dry whey $0.5886. 

JULY MAILBOX MILK PRICES (FMMO): In July 2025, mailbox milk prices for selected reporting areas in Federal milk orders averaged $20.14 per cwt, down $0.41 from the June 2025 average and down $1.96 per cwt from the July 2024 average. The component tests of producer milk in July 2025 were: butterfat, 4.10%; protein, 3.20%; and other solids, 5.78%. 

OCTOBER RETAIL MILK PRICES (FMMO): U.S. simple average prices are: $4.40 per gallon for conventional whole milk, $4.31 per gallon for conventional reduced fat 2% milk, $5.35 per half gallon organic whole milk, and $5.35 per half gallon organic reduced fat 2% milk.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: In the week 43 retail dairy survey, conventional ads are down 4 percent, and organic ads declined 9 percent. The most advertised conventional dairy commodity is cheese, while milk is the most advertised organic commodity. Conventional eggnog is beginning to make its seasonal appearance in surveyed ads. There were no ads for organic sour cream which was present in the week 42 survey. The organic premium for gallon milk in week 43 is $4.20.