The drought continues to expand and worsen in most parts of Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic. This August is a good time to take stock of your resources and cattle. Then use this information to make management decisions.

Taking Stock - Feed inventory is the first item that needs to be addressed. Most pastures are in poor shape and first cutting hay supplies are short. Prospects for an above average second cutting are not looking real good. Here are some taking stock items to consider:

• Estimate current total hay supplies - not just bales but tons of hay. Don't overestimate bale weight
• Take forage samples of hay and analyze them for quality
• Make a realistic estimate of second cutting hay yield prospects
• Find out current availability and price of by-product feeds in your area
• Consider temporary fence and water options
• Inventory the cow herd - on paper divide cattle into the following groups
• Developing replacement heifers
• Pregnant heifers
• Young cows
• Mature cows
• Old cows
• Bulls

Estimate the total feed needs from now until April 2008. Each cow or bull will need at least 30 to 35 lbs of hay or equivalent in pasture per day. Pregnant heifers and developing heifers will need 20 to 30 lbs of hay or equivalent per day. Feeder calves will need 12 to 15 lbs. per day. These numbers include some wastage of feed, but operations with excessive feed wastage will require more lbs per animal. Then compare the feed needed to current feed available.

Here's an example:

From August 1, 2007 to April 20, 2008 is 263 days. Cattle inventory and feed (dry matter) needs for a 60 cow spring calving herd are shown in table 1. Total tons of feed needed is 346.9 tons. Current feed inventory includes 120 round bales averaging 1100 lbs, 160 acres of pasture, and 45 acres of hayland. Each acre of grass contains 200 to 300 lbs of hay equivalent per inch of grass above 3 inches. Utilization rate of rotated pasture is 50%. In other words, cattle can only eat about half of the grass available. The rest of the grass is trampled or soiled by urine and feces. Grass is currently growing at about 3 to 4 inches per month.

Table 1. Cattle inventory and feed requirements until April 2008.
	No. Head	Lbs. Dry Matter (Hay equivalent) needed/head/day	Total Lbs. Dry Matter (Hay equivalent) needed/group until 4-20 (or sold)	Tons needed
Cows	60	32	504,960	252.5
Bulls	2	35	18,410	9.2
Pregnant heifers	10	28	73,640	36.8
Replacement Heifers	12	20	63,120	31.6
Feeder calves to be sold in October	45	10	33,750	16.9
Total	129		693,880	346.9

An estimated feed inventory is shown in Table 2. This inventory assumes pasture will continue to grow at 4 inches per month through October and utilization is 50%. Second cutting hay will be harvested in September. Current feed inventory is in essence all the forage available until mid-April 2008.

Table 2. Estimated current feed inventory
Resource	Unit	Lbs. per unit available	Total pounds available	Tons available
Hay	120 bales	1100	132,000	66.0
Pasture	160 Acres	1600	256,000	128.0
Hayland	45 Acres	1400	63,000	31.5
Total	325		451,000	225.5

Comparing the dry matter needs to current availability, it is easy to see there is a short fall of over 120 tons. If we had to purchase this forage at $80/ton, then we would be spending an extra $9,600 or almost another $115 per animal to make it until next spring. Of course, this is a worst case scenario with little expectation of improved moisture this fall. Still we need to consider our options for making it through the winter.

Moving forward - Reduce cattle inventory. One option is to sell all animals that do not have the potential to produce a quality calf to sell next fall. In addition, this includes animals that can relatively easily be replaced. Animals that fall into this category are open cows, old cows, weaned replacement heifers, and bulls. If we take this drastic step, the forage shortfall is cut to one third to 40 tons (compare Table 2 and 3). However, we still will have the same number of calves to sell next fall. Decisions on buying replacement bulls and pregnant replacement heifers can be deferred to next spring when pasture and feed availability may be improved.

Table 3. Feed needs for reduced cattle inventory.
	No. Head	Lbs. Dry Matter (Hay equivalent) needed/head/day	Total Lbs. Dry Matter (Hay equivalent) needed/group until 4-20 (or sold)	Tons needed
Cows	50	32	420,800	210.4
Bulls	0	35	0	0.0
Pregnant heifers	10	28	73,640	36.8
Replacement Heifers	0	20	0	0.0
Feeder calves to be sold in October	45	10	33,750	16.9
Total	105		528,190	264.1

Stockpile forage. Another possibility is to graze hay fields instead of making second cutting hay, and stockpile 45 acres of pasture. To stockpile during this dry weather 40 units of N is recommended. Utilization of stockpiled fields is higher than pasture at about 70%. This reduces our feed shortfall to 30 tons (Table 4). This would mean purchasing an additional $2,400 of hay (or about $2,000 worth of corn gluten feed) plus 1800 units of N.

Table 4. Impact on grazing hay fields and stockpiling on forage availability.
Resource	Unit	Lbs. per unit available	Total pounds available	Tons available
Hay	120 bales	1100	132,000	66.0
Pasture	115 acres	1600	184,000	92.0
Hayland	45 acres	1400	63,000	31.5
Stockpiled grass	45 acres	2000	90,000	45.0
Total	325		469,000	234.5

What about rain. If we get a good fall combined with reducing cow numbers and stockpiling, then things look pretty good (Table 5). In fact, we end up with a surplus of about 20 tons of forage. This may allow the operation to keep one of the bulls and still have hay to sell next spring. By next spring, hay may be a very profitable commodity.

Table 5. Effect of adequate fall rain, grazing hay fields, and stockpiling on forage availability.
Resource	Unit	Lbs. per unit available	Total pounds available	Tons available
Hay	120	1100	132,000	66.0
Pasture	115	2000	230,000	115.0
Hayland	45	1600	72,000	36.0
Stockpiled grass	45	3000	135,000	67.5
Total	325	7700	569,000	284.5

The bottom line - The examples above only consider the dry matter intake of the animal as met by hay and pasture. In addition, these examples assume that forage quality is adequate to meet animal needs. Producers should be very careful to obtain forage analyses and work with their Extension agent or nutritionist to make sure hays meet the needs of the animal. It will not be uncommon for energy supplements to be needed in addition to hay, especially for pregnant heifers and replacement heifers.

To continue to be a viable and perhaps profitable operation, producers will need to consider a combination of strategies to make it through the drought. The first and most important consideration is to make a realistic inventory of feed resources and cattle needs. Then producers should employ a combination of:

• Cattle inventory reduction
• Alternative grazing and forage practices
• Feeding of alternative feeds

Producers should try to consider all the options, and should not be afraid to seek assistance from Farm Management Extension Agents or other Agricultural Extension agents. Remember prayer never hurts either.

August 2007