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11 November 2015

USDA WASDE - 11 November 2015USDA WASDE - 11 November 2015

USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates


The total meat production forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are little changed from last month due to largely offsetting changes in red meat and poultry.

Beef production for 2015 and 2016 is lowered on slower expected marketings from feedlots into early 2016. However, the slower pace of slaughter is partly offset by higher expected carcass weights.

Pork production is lowered for 2015 on a slower expected pace of slaughter and slightly lighter carcass weights during the fourth quarter. The forecast for 2016 is unchanged.

However, broiler production is forecast higher for both 2015 and 2016. September production was higher than expected, and hatchery data points to higher production into early 2016. Turkey production in September was also higher than expected, which boosted 2015 production, although no change was made to the forecast quarters.

Egg production for 2015 is adjusted based on lower September hatching egg production, but production forecasts into 2016 are unchanged.

Beef imports for 2015 are reduced to reflect the pace of trade to date; the forecast for 2016 is unchanged. Beef exports for 2015 are lowered as demand remains relatively weak; no change is made to 2016.

Pork import and export forecasts are unchanged, but small adjustments are WASDE-547-5 made to third-quarter 2015 to reflect September trade data.

Broiler exports for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month as the pace of export recovery has been slower than expected. Cattle and hog prices for 2015 and 2016 are unchanged from last month. Broiler prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016 as large broiler meat supplies are expected to continue to pressure markets. Turkey prices are unchanged for 2015 on current price strength, but the forecast for 2016 is reduced slightly.

Egg prices are lowered into first-half 2016, reflecting recent price movements.

The milk production forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month as the dairy herd is expected to decline more rapidly from its second-quarter peak and growth in milk per cow in 2015 remains slower than expected.

Imports are reduced on both a fat and skim-solids basis for both years as imports of milk protein concentrates and casein are expected to be lower. Exports are reduced for 2015 on weaker butter, cheese and whey sales.

Largely uncompetitive prices are likely to limit growth in export sales of butter and to a lesser extent, cheese in 2016, and fatbased exports are reduced.

Strong domestic demand for butter is expected to support relatively high butter prices during the remainder of 2015, but supplies are expected to be large, and the price forecast for 2016 is lowered. Cheese prices are lowered for 2015 and 2016 as supplies remain large.

The nonfat dry milk (NDM) price is reduced for 2015 and 2016 as prices move closer to international levels. Whey prices are unchanged from last month.

Class III prices are lowered for 2015 and 2016 reflecting the lower 2015 cheese price forecasts. Class IV prices are raised for 2015 due to the stronger forecast butter price which more than offsets the lower NDM price. However, the 2016 price is lowered as cheese and NDM forecasts are reduced. The all milk price is raised to $17.00 to $17.10 per cwt for 2015 and lowered to $15.95 to $16.85 per cwt for 2016.

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