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USDA Feed Outlook

16 October 2012

USDA Feed Outlook - October 2012USDA Feed Outlook - October 2012

U.S. corn production for 2012/13 is lowered 21 million bushels as lower yield more than offsets higher area in this month’s forecasts.
Feed Outlook

Smaller Carryin and Forecast Production Tighten Corn Ending Stocks for 2012/13

The yield slips 0.8 bushels per acre to 122.0 bushels, and harvested area advances 0.4 million acres to 87.7 million. Corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected 214 million bushels lower, mostly reflecting lower carryin based on September 1 stocks. Projected exports are reduced 100 million bushels. Corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 114 million bushels lower at 619 million. The projected average price received by growers is reduced 10 cents on each end of the range to $7.10-$8.50 per bushel due to lower-than-expected early season cash and futures prices.

Reduced production and beginning stocks leave world coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 projected down 11.0 million tons this month to the lowest level since 2007/08. However, foreign corn supplies in 2012/13 are projected to be record high at 673.5 million tons. Brazil’s corn exports for trade year 2012/13 are raised over 30 percent this month to a record 19.0 million tons, supporting an increase in forecast corn trade and a sharp reduction in U.S. exports to the lowest level in almost 40 years.

Domestic Outlook

Forecast Corn Carryout Stocks for 2012/13 Slip

The September 28 Grain Stocks report indicates September 1, 2012, U.S. corn stocks of 988 million bushels, the lowest carryout since 1995/96, and 193 million bushels below September’s WASDE forecast. The stocks data and nearly final data for other domestic use imply a fourth-quarter feed and residual use of 335 million bushels, 115 million below estimates from the fourth quarter of 2010/11.

U.S. feed grain production for 2012/13 is forecast at 284.1 million metric tons, down from last month’s forecast of 284.5 million. The month-to-month decrease reflects reduced forecast production for corn and smaller production estimates for barley and oats from the Small Grains 2012 Summary report. Planted area for the four feed grains is increased 542,000 acres, and harvested-for-grain acres are increased 208,000 acres this month. Yields per harvested acre for the four grains combined are down slightly at 2.93 tons per acre. Beginning stocks in 2012/13 are lowered to 27.8 million tons, based on the recent Grain Stocks report. Total 2012/13 feed grain supply is forecast at 315.8 million tons, down 5.6 million from last month and down relative to the 2011/12 estimate of 358.5 million tons.

Total 2012/13 feed grain utilization is projected at 297.0 million tons, down from the September forecast of 300.1 million and down from the 2011/12 estimate of 330.7 million tons. The month-to-month decline is attributed to lower corn exports. Total projected feed grain ending stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 2.5 million tons to 18.8 million, mainly reflecting reduced carryin from the 2011/12 marketing year.

Feed Use

On a September-August marketing year basis for 2012/13, U.S. feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat is projected to total 114.0 million tons, down 17.2 million from the revised total of 131.2 million tons in 2011. Corn is estimated to account for 92 percent of feed and residual use in 2012/13, down from 93 percent in 2011/12. The projected index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) in 2012/13 is 91.6 million units, down slightly from 92.6 million in 2011/12. Feed and residual per GCAU in 2012/13 is estimated at 1.24 tons, down from 1.42 tons in 2011/12. In the index components, GCAUs are decreased for beef, dairy, pork, and poultry.

USDA’s September 19 Milk Production report indicates that milk production in the 23 major producing States during August totaled 15.3 billion pounds, down 0.2 percent from August 2011. Production per cow averaged 1,803 pounds for August, 10 pounds below last year, primarily due to higher temperatures. The 2012 milk production forecast is reduced from last month, as slower growth in milk per cow more than offsets a slower expected decline in cow numbers. Higher forecast milk prices in late 2012 and into 2013 are expected to slow the rate of decline in cow numbers and help support higher growth in milk per cow in 2013.

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2012, was 67.5 million head. This is up slightly from September 1, 2011, and up 3 percent from June 1, 2012. U.S. hog breeding inventory in the third quarter of 2012 is estimated at 5.79 million head, down slightly from both last year and the previous month, according to the September 28 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Market hog inventory, at 61.7 million head, is up slightly from last year and up 3 percent from last quarter. The June-August 2012 pig crop, at 29.3 million head, was down slightly from 2011. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.89 million head, down 1 percent from 2011. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high of 10.13 for the June- August period, compared to 10.03 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.60 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 10.20 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs. The recent Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated a small decline in the June-August pig crop and indicates that producers intend to reduce farrowings through early 2013, but continued growth in pigs per litter is expected to mitigate much of the decline in farrowings.

The forecast for 2013 poultry production is raised slightly. USDA’s October 3 Broiler Hatchery report indicates that broiler-type egg sets have increased from a year earlier. Broiler-type chicks placed are up slightly to 154 million chicks for meat production. Cumulative placements from January 1, 2012, through September 29, 2012, are 6.37 billion, down 2 percent from the same period a year earlier.

According to the September 21, 2012, Chickens and Eggs report, broiler-type chicks hatched during August 2012 totaled 758 million and were down slightly from August 2011. Eggs in incubators totaled 596 million on September 1, 2012, down 1 percent from a year earlier. Leading breeders placed 7.05 million broiler- type pullet chicks for future domestic hatchery supply flocks during August 2012, down 3 percent from August 2011. Egg-type chicks hatched and pullet chicks for future hatchery supply have been increasing.

USDA’s September 14 Turkey Hatchery report indicates that turkey eggs in incubators on September 1, 2012, in the United States totaled 26.3 million, down 6 percent from September 1, 2011. Eggs in incubators were down 9 percent from the August 1, 2012, total of 28.9 million eggs. Turkey poults hatched during August 2012 in the United States totaled 23.8 million, down slightly from August 2011. Poults hatched were down 9 percent from the July 2012 total of 26.2 million poults.

USDA’s September 23 Cattle on Feed report indicated that cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States (feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head) totaled 10.6 million head on September 1, 2012. The inventory was 1 percent below the September 1, 2011, estimate. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 2 million, 11 percent below 2011. This is the second lowest cattle placement for the month of August since the series began in 1996. Net placements were 1.94 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 482,000, 600-699 pounds were 385,000, 700-799 pounds were 475,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 660,000.

Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.96 million, 5 percent below 2011. Other disappearance totaled 61,000 during August, 15 percent below 2011.

Changes Made for the 2011/12 Marketing Year

The following changes were made in the 2011/12 balance sheets:

Corn: Feed and residual use is increased by 161.7 million bushels on lower ending stocks based on the September 1 stock estimates. Food, seed, and industrial use is increased by 31.0 million bushels on higher high-fructose corn syrup, starch, and glucose and dextrose production and adjustments in seed use.

Sorghum: Feed and residual use advanced by 5.6 million bushels on a 4.1-million- bushel reduction in ending stocks. Imports are raised slightly and exports are reduced.

Barley: A June 1 stock revision from the September 28 Grain Stocks report reduces ending stocks 78,000 bushels, resulting in an offsetting increase in feed and residual to an estimated 37.6 million bushels.

Oats: Feed and residual use is increased slightly to 81.9 based on revised June 1 stocks. Ending stocks are decreased 13,000 bushels.

2012/13 Corn Crop Slips on Lower Yield as Harvested Acreage Edges Up

U.S. corn production is forecast at 10,706 million bushels for 2012/13, down 22 million bushels from last month. From the previous month’s forecast, yield slips 0.8 bushels per acre to 122.0 bushels. The October 1 corn objective yield data indicate reduced ears per acre compared with last year’s record high for the combined 10 objective yield States: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Forecast harvested acreage is boosted by 360,000 acres to 87.7 million. If the forecast production is realized, it would be the eighth largest on record.

Beginning stocks are lowered to 988 million bushels, 193 million lower than last month based on reported September 1 stocks. Exports are projected 100 million bushels lower at 1,150 million as a result of tight supplies and increased export competition, especially from Brazil. Corn used for ethanol production in 2012/13 is unchanged this month at 4,500 million bushels, based on anticipated fuel demand, tight corn supplies, and prospects for ethanol imports. Total utilization is projected at 11,150 million bushels, down 100 million from last month and 1,376 million below 2011/12.

Ending stocks are reduced sharply this month by 114 million bushels. At a projected 619 million bushels, 2012/13 ending stocks would be the lowest since 1995/96, when ending stocks were estimated at just 426 million bushels. The 2012/13 forecast price is reduced 10 cents on both ends of the range to $7.10-$8.50 per bushel, primarily due to declining early-season cash and futures prices. These price forecasts are still far above the record 2011/12 final price estimate of $6.22 per bushel.

Sorghum Production Nearly Unchanged

An increase in the forecast sorghum yield resulted in a production forecast of 252.0 million bushels, up 6.0 million bushels from last month. Forecast production is 37.5 million bushels higher than last season’s harvest of 214.4 million bushels. After a record-low harvest last year, 2012/13 harvest is still below-average and the second lowest since 2006 when 276.8 million bushels were harvested.

Based on October 1 conditions, the sorghum yield estimate were decreased 1.9 bushels per acre to 50.2 bushels per acre. Yields are expected to be 4.4 bushels per acre lower than last season due to the persistent drought in many southern sorghum growing areas, including Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska , and Texas.

Sorghum use is unchanged from last month’s forecast. The increase in production results in a 1.9-million-bushel increase in projected ending stocks.

Average U.S. sorghum farm price is lowered $0.10 on each end of the range to $6.70-$8.10 per bushel, in line with this month’s reduction in the projected corn farm price. This compares with a final estimated price of $5.99 per bushel for sorghum in 2011/12.

Barley Imports and Feed and Residual Reduced

U.S. barley production for 2012/13 is forecast at 220.3 million bushels, reflecting a slight downward revision of 735,000 bushels based on the final production estimate from the September 28 Small Grains 2012 Summary. Production is up 64.5 million bushels from 2011/12. Significant production increases from North Dakota, Idaho, and Montana all contribute to the 41-percent increase in production. Average yield per acre is down slightly to 67.9 bushels per acre, compared to the 2011/12 yield of 69.6. Approximately 3.64 million acres were planted for 2012/13, up 42 percent from 2011/12. Similarly, harvested acres for the 2012/13 marketing year are forecast to be up 45 percent to 3.24 million acres.

Total barley supply is projected at 300.3 million bushels, a decline of 5.8 million bushels from the September forecast but an increase of 38.9 million bushels over the 2011/12 supply estimate. Barley imports are down 5 million bushels from last month’s projection of 25 million bushels and are attributable, in part, to a decline in Canadian barley production.

Estimated barley feed and residual use is lowered to 55.0 million bushels, a cut of 25 million bushels, relative to last month, due to sluggish use revealed by the September 1 stocks. Export prospects remain unchanged. Projected ending stocks for 2012/13 are increased 19.2 million bushels to 80.3 million. Sustained demand for malting barley supports a slight increase in the farm price projection for all barley to $6.00-$7.00 per bushel. This compares to an average farm price of $5.35 per bushel in 2011/12.

Oats Production up 19 Percent in 2012/13

U.S. production of oats for 2012/13 is up 19 percent to 64.0 million bushels following a record-low harvest of 53.6 million bushels in 2011/12. Production gains are attributable to improved yields, with the 2012/13 yield estimated at 61.3 bushels per acre relative to 57.1 bushels in 2011/12. Planted and harvested acres are both up 11 percent over the previous year. Area planted to oats is estimated at 2.76 million acres, up slightly from last month and up 264,000 acres on the year. The largest gains in harvested area are attributed to Minnesota and North Dakota where, collectively, an additional 50,000 acres of oats are expected to be harvested. Harvested acre estimates were lowered slightly this month to 1.045 million acres, down 46,000 acres from the previous forecast.

No changes to projected import and export levels were made. Ending stocks for both 2011/12 and 2012/13 were revised downward slightly to 55.0 and 50.01 million bushels, respectively. The projected 2012/13 farm price range is unchanged at $3.40-$4.20 per bushel, a slight increase over the final 2011/12 farm price of $3.49 per bushel.

Slight Increase in Alfalfa and Other Hay Production Estimates

U.S. all-hay production in 2012/13 is forecast at 121.97 million short tons, down from 131.14 million tons in 2011/12. Total harvested area for 2012/13, at 57.6 million acres, is up 3.5 percent from the 2011/12 estimate of 55.6 million acres. The increase in harvested acres is more than offset by declines in yields for other hay and alfalfa hay and mixtures. Roughage-consuming animal units (RCAU) are projected to be 67.07 in 2012/13, down from 67.91 in 2011/12. Despite reductions in RCAUs, the all-hay production decline results in a net drop in hay supply per RCAU of 0.12 tons to 2.14 tons per RCAU, compared to 2.26 tons per RCAU in 2011/12. In recognition of the need for additional hay, Conservation Reserve Program land will be open to grazing through November 2012.

Production of alfalfa hay and alfalfa mixtures is forecast at 55.57 million tons, up 1 percent from the August forecast but down 15 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, the estimated yield is adjusted upward by a modest 0.03 tons per acre relative to the August forecast. The 2012/13 alfalfa hay and mixtures yield is forecast to be 2.95 tons per acre, a 0.45-ton-per-acre reduction in yield relative to the 2011/12 estimate of 3.40 tons per acre. If realized, the forecast yield will be the lowest since 1988. Harvested area is down 2 percent from the previous year at 18.8 million acres, with major declines attributed to Montana, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Other hay production is forecast at 66.4 million tons, an increase of 1 percent from both the August forecast and the previous year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 1.71 tons per acre, up 0.02 tons from August but down 0.10 tons from the previous year. Harvested area, at 38.8 million acres, is up more than 6 percent over the 2011/12 estimate of 36.4 million acres.

International Outlook

Increased U.S. Coarse Grain Production Offsets Foreign Decline

Global coarse grain production in 2012/13 is forecast down 3.2 million tons this month to 1,110.1 million, with U.S. production down a relatively small 0.5 million tons and foreign barley and corn down by a larger amount. Foreign barley production is projected down 1.8 million tons to 126.0 million, with significant reductions for Australia and Canada. Foreign corn production prospects are cut 1.5 million tons to 567.1 million due to drought effects in the EU and Serbia. Foreign oats production is projected down 0.5 million tons to 20.5 million, mostly because of below-normal rains in Australia. Mixed grain production is trimmed 0.2 million tons to 14.9 million (and down 0.3 million to 14.4 for 2011/12) due to several EU harvest reports, and the largest declines are in Poland and France. However, 2012/13 foreign production prospects are boosted this month for sorghum (up 0.6 million tons to 53.1 million), rye (up 0.6 million to 13.7 million), and millet (up slightly to 30.7 million).

Australia had a dry winter across most grain areas, so September rainfall was crucial for spring grains entering reproduction. In Western Australia, good rains arrived in late September, but yield prospects had already been hurt. In Eastern Australia, September rainfall was spotty, with some areas receiving ample rains while others remained much drier than normal. Lower projected barley yields in Australia more than offset increased reported area, cutting forecast production 1.0 million tons to 7.0 million. Reduced oats area and lower yield prospects cut 2012/13 production 0.4 million tons to 1.2 million. However, increased area is expected for summer crops, boosting sorghum production 0.2 million tons to 2.7 million and corn production slightly to 0.4 million.

Canada suffered from dryness across much of the Prairies during August and September and high winds that damaged windrowed crops. Rainfall for corn in Ontario was uneven, with dryness to the north and East. Statistics Canada reported reduced yields, with barley production cut 0.9 million tons to 8.6 million, corn trimmed 0.1 million to 11.6 million, and oats reduced slightly to less than 3.0 million.

EU 2012/13 coarse grain production is forecast down 0.9 million tons this month to 141.0 million. Winter grain harvest is complete, and summer crop harvests are accelerated by hot dry summer growing conditions, especially across southern parts of the EU. Most countries are publishing harvest reports that verify production problems. EU corn production is forecast down 1.5 million tons to 55.6 million, with declines for Romania, Hungary, France, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Greece and increases for Spain and Poland. EU mixed grain is forecast down 0.2 million tons to 14.5 million, with most of the reduction due to reduced area in Poland, and sorghum production is reduced slightly for France. Some of the northern EU countries had more rain this summer, and harvest reports indicate higher production of rye (up 0.6 million tons, mostly for Germany, Poland, and Denmark), barley (up 0.4 million, with increases for Spain, France, Poland, and Sweden more than offsetting reductions for several other countries), and oats (up slightly, with an increase for Sweden more than offsetting a decline for France). Serbia suffered from the same drought as its EU neighbors, with corn production forecast down 0.4 million tons to 3.9 million, and small reductions forecast for oats and barley.

Coarse grain production in Sub-Saharan Africa is up 1.0 million tons this month to 101.7 million as a review of production prospects across several countries revealed generally favorable rains, especially across the Sahel. There are increases in forecast 2012/13 production for Ethiopia, Malawi, Ghana, Chad, Mali, Angola, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Congo Brazzaville, but reductions for Madagascar, Kenya, Zambia, Sudan, Lesotho, Botswana, and Burundi.

There are small reductions to 2012/13 barley production this month reported for Algeria and Kyrgyzstan.

Reduced Beginning Stocks Tighten 2012/13 Supplies

World coarse grain beginning stocks for 2012/13 are forecast down 7.9 million tons this month to 164.8 million. While much of the decline is for U.S. corn stocks, foreign coarse grain stocks are down 2.9 million tons to 137.0 million.

Brazil’s corn beginning stocks for 2012/13 are reduced 4.5 million tons to 10.8 million as the record pace of exports in August and September, and strong sales for shipment in coming months, indicate that stocks on March 1, 2013 (the beginning of the 2012/13 local marketing year for corn) will be less than previously forecast. Other reductions to corn beginning stocks are much smaller, with declines for Malawi, the EU, Malaysia, and Zambia. Beginning stocks are forecast up 0.4 million tons each for Egypt (strong 2011/12 imports) and Zimbabwe (increased 2011/12 production and imports) and 0.2 million each for Angola, Tanzania, China, Venezuela, and Kenya.

Global sorghum 2012/13 beginning stocks are reduced 0.6 million tons to 3.7 million, with reductions of 0.1 million tons or more for Argentina, Australia, the United States, and Tanzania.

World barley beginning stocks are up 0.7 million tons to 22.6 million, mostly due to a 0.6-million-ton increase for Saudi Arabia caused by strong 2011/12 imports. China’s barley beginning stocks are also boosted by 2011/12 imports. World oats beginning stocks are down 0.3 million tons, mostly due to reductions for the EU and Australia, but rye stocks are up 0.4 million due to increases for the EU.

Reduced production and beginning stocks leave world coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 projected down 11.0 million tons this month to 1,274.9 million, the lowest level since 2007/08. However, foreign corn supplies in 2012/13 are projected to be record high at 673.5 million tons.

Tight Supplies and High Prices Reduce Projected Use

Global 2012/13 coarse grain use is projected down 4.4 million tons this month to 1,128.6 million, with most of the reduction, 3.9 million, in foreign countries. Global corn use is forecast down 3.4 million tons, with no U.S. consumption change. World barley use is projected down 1.5 million tons, with U.S. consumption reduced 0.5 million. World oats and mixed grain use are trimmed this month, but sorghum and millet are up slightly.

Coarse grain domestic consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa for 2012/13 is increased 1.0 million tons this month to 101.5 million, mostly due to increased production prospects in several countries. For many countries in the region, good domestic production will limit local price increases and support food use.

Australia’s coarse grain use is cut 0.75 million tons to 6.6 million, with most of the decline in barley feed use caused by reduced crop prospects. Canada faces a similar situation with coarse grain use reduced 0.6 million tons (to 20.6 million) due mostly to less expected barley feed use.

India’s forecast 2012/13 corn feed use is reduced 0.5 million tons to 9.0 million as recent data indicate more corn exports and less domestic feed use for both 2011/12 and 2012/13. Serbia’s 2012/13 corn domestic feed use is reduced 0.3 million tons to 3.6 million as trade data for 2011/12 indicate more exports. Increased exports will reduce domestic use with Serbia’s 2012 crop devastated by drought. While total 2012/13 coarse grain domestic use for Tanzania is trimmed 0.2 million tons this month, revisions to several years of consumption lower feed use but increase food use, projected up 0.6 million tons this month to 4.7 million for 2012/13. There are small reductions to expected 2012/13 coarse grain use this month for Argentina, Kenya, Malaysia, Sudan, Ukraine, and Zambia.

Barley consumption in Saudi Arabia for 2012/13 is expected up 0.5 million tons this month as strong imports at the end of 2011/12 boost supplies. Other non-Sub-Saharan African countries with smaller increases in projected 2012/13 coarse grain use include Venezuela, the EU, and Egypt.

Projected Global Ending Coarse Grain Stocks Cut This Month

World coarse grain ending stocks projected for 2012/13 are down 6.6 million tons this month to 146.3 million. This is the lowest in 6 years and the 3rd lowest in recent decades. Much of this month’s decline, 4.2 million tons, is in foreign countries, with foreign corn stocks down 3.8 million.

Brazil’s 2012/13 corn ending stocks are slashed 5.5 million tons to 9.6 million as attractive prices for exports are an incentive to ship instead of hold stocks. Moreover, Brazil harvests significant amounts of corn across nearly half the year (March to July), so it has flexibility when high prices overcome transportation costs.

Australia, with reduced barley production, is expected to hold 0.4 million tons less coarse grains (1.0 million). There are smaller reductions in forecast 2012/13 ending stocks for Zambia, Argentina, Malaysia, Russia, Algeria, Canada, and South Africa.

EU 2012/13 coarse grain ending stocks are projected up 0.6 million tons to 10.7 million, partly due to increased forecast corn imports. There are also increased ending stocks projected this month for Tanzania, Angola, Egypt, Zimbabwe, and some other countries.

U.S. Corn Export Prospects Cut, World Trade Boosted

Global corn trade projected for 2012/13 is increased 2.5 million tons this month to 93.3 million. Trade data for the recently completed (October-September) 2011/12 trade year are not nearly complete, but preliminary trade statistics indicate record-high corn trade at 102.8 million tons, up 2.5 million from last month’s forecast. Corn trade appears robust despite high prices.

EU corn imports are raised 2.0 million tons this month to 5.0 million as EU corn and UK wheat crops are reduced. A large part of the UK wheat crop is normally used for feed.

Venezuela’s 2012/13 corn imports are projected up 0.3 million tons to 2.0 million as large imports the previous year indicate strong demand. Zimbabwe’s 2012/13 corn imports are raised 0.1 million to 0.4 million because of strong demand and imports for 2011/12. However, Malaysia’s 2012/13 corn imports are trimmed 0.1 million tons to 3.0 million as 2011/12 imports were smaller than previously forecast. Serbia’s 2012/13 imports are raised slightly due to tight supplies caused by drought.

Brazil’s corn exports are boosted 4.5 million tons to a record 19.0 million, and Brazil is expected to be the world’s second largest corn exporter in 2012/13. Brazil reportedly shipped a record pace of corn exports in September 2012 of over 3 million tons, boosting estimated 2011/12 exports 0.7 million this month to 12.7 million. Brazil has demonstrated that without soybeans and products taking priority for ports and other transportation infrastructure, it can ship very large volumes of corn if prices are attractive. From October 2012 to February 2013, Brazil is expected to ship large volumes of corn, with a secondary increase in August and September 2013 if soybean shipments tail off or transportation bottlenecks are reduced.

India’s 2012/13 corn exports are forecast up 0.5 million tons this month to 3.0 million. The pace of recent shipments indicates India will export corn if foreign prices are attractive (2011/12 corn exports are raised 0.6 million tons this month to 4.4 million).

Facing strong competition from Brazil and other exporters, U.S. corn export prospects for 2012/13 are weakening. At the end of September 2012, outstanding sales of corn were 8.3 million tons, down 6.0 million from the previous year, when corn exports were sluggish. U.S. 2012/13 corn exports are projected down 2.5 million tons this month to 31.0 million, the lowest in almost 40 years (the September-August local marketing year is cut 100 million bushels to 1.15 billion bushels).

October 2012

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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