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09 November 2012

USDA WASDE - November 2012USDA WASDE - November 2012

USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates

WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are raised 50 million bushels this month. Exports are projected 50 million bushels lower reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments, and an outlook for increased foreign competition. Projected U.S. exports are lowered 25 million bushels each for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat. Projected all-wheat imports are unchanged, but imports are projected slightly higher for HRW wheat with an offsetting reduction made for SRW wheat imports. The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price is narrowed 10 cents on both ends to $7.75 to $8.45 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 1.9 million tons lower. Beginning stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 0.3 million tons. Higher 2011/12 feed and residual disappearance in EU-27 and lower production for China account for most of the reduction in global 2012/13 beginning stocks. Higher 2011/12 production for Pakistan and lower exports for Australia raise 2012/13 beginning stocks for both countries and partly offset the reductions for EU-27 and China.

Global wheat production for 2012/13 is lowered 1.6 million tons. Production is reduced 2.0 million tons for Australia as continued dryness during grain fill in October further reduced yield prospects in western and southeastern growing areas. Production is also lowered 0.3 million tons for Turkey based on the latest confirmations that cool, wet weather during the early growing season delayed development, increased disease problems, and lowered yields in the country’s central growing region. Small increases are made in production for Pakistan, EU-27, and Algeria.

Global wheat trade is raised for 2012/13, reflecting the continuation of strong shipments from the Black Sea region and India, and the growing competiveness of wheat from the EU-27. Exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Ukraine, 1.0 million tons each for EU-27 and Russia, and 0.5 million tons for India. Partly offsetting these increases is a 1.5-million-ton reduction for Australia with the smaller expected crop and the 1.4-million-ton reduction projected for U.S. exports. Imports are projected 2.7 million tons higher with increases for China, Egypt, EU-27, Israel, Kenya, and Mexico.

Global wheat feeding for 2012/13 is lowered 2.5 million tons with reductions for EU-27, Russia, Ukraine, South Korea, and India. Small increases in expected wheat feed use for Egypt, Israel, and Japan limit the global decline. World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 1.2 million tons higher with increases for the United States, Pakistan, China, and Egypt. Lower stocks are projected for Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and Australia. At the projected 174.2 million tons, global stocks remain 46.0 million tons above the recent low in 2007/08.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected slightly higher with small increases forecast for corn and sorghum production and higher projected corn imports. Forecast corn production for 2012/13 is raised 19 million bushels with a 0.3-bushel increase in the corn yield to 122.3 bushels per acre. Sorghum production is forecast 4 million bushels higher, also on a higher yield. Projected corn imports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting expectations for more shipments, particularly into the southeastern feed market which ordinarily relies heavily on supplies from the eastern Corn Belt. Corn food, seed, and industrial use for 2012/13 is raised 17 million bushels with higher use projected for sweeteners and starch. Corn ending stocks are projected 28 million bushels higher at 647 million. The season-average farm price for corn, at $6.95 to $8.25 per bushel, is projected 20 cents lower at the midpoint, mostly reflecting a lower-than-expected September price and the continuation of weakness in cash and deferred futures prices over the past month.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 1.8 million tons higher with larger corn carryin stocks for EU-27 and Mexico, and higher corn production in the United States. Corn production for 2011/12 is raised 0.9 million tons and 0.6 million tons, respectively, for EU-27 and Mexico. Additional increases for South Africa, Guatemala, and Brazil boost global corn production 2.7 million tons to a record 880.5 million for 2011/12. Global coarse grain production for 2012/13 is raised 0.9 million tons with a number of largely offsetting foreign changes made this month. Global 2012/13 corn output is raised 0.7 million tons to 839.7 million. Despite the sharp drop yearto-year, 2012/13 production is projected to be the second highest on record supported by record high foreign output. Corn production is raised 0.6 million tons for Guatemala, 0.5 million tons for Russia, and 0.4 million tons each for Indonesia and Turkey. Corn production is lowered 1.0 million tons for EU-27 and 0.8 million tons for Mexico. Sorghum production is raised 0.4 million tons for Argentina, but lowered the same amount for Mexico. A 0.2-million-ton increase in EU-27 barley production is mostly offset by small reductions for Argentina and Algeria. EU-27 oats production is lowered 0.3 million tons, but rye production is raised a similar amount.

Global 2012/13 corn imports are raised 2.8 million tons with increases for EU-27, United States, South Korea, and Mexico. Russia corn exports are raised 0.3 million tons for the 2012/13 marketing year. Also supporting higher 2012/13 marketing year imports are higher 2011/12 marketing year exports for Brazil and South Africa, up 2.0 million tons and 0.3 million tons, respectively. (The 2011/12 marketing years for Brazil and South Africa run through the end of February 2013 and April 2013, respectively.) Sorghum imports for 2012/13 are raised 0.2 million tons for Mexico with exports for Argentina raised the same amount. Barley imports for 2012/13 are raised 0.5 million tons for Iran supported by increases for EU-27 and Russia exports. Global corn feeding is raised 3.1 million tons with increases for EU-27, Indonesia, South Korea, Guatemala, and Russia. World corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 0.7 million tons higher at 118.0 million.

RICE: U.S. all rice production in 2012/13 is forecast at 198.5 million cwt, 0.3 million below last month due to a decrease in yield. Average all rice yield is estimated at a record 7,417 pounds per acre, down 11 pounds from last month. Harvested area is unchanged at 2.68 million acres. Longgrain rice production is lowered 0.2 million cwt to 139.8 million, and combined medium- and shortgrain production is lowered 0.1 million to 58.7 million. The import forecast is raised 1.0 million cwt to 20.5 million, all in long-grain, as the September U.S. trade data reported by the Census Bureau showed a large quantity from Vietnam.

On the use side, exports are raised 3.0 million cwt to 103.0 million with long-grain exports raised 4.0 million and combined medium- and short-grain exports lowered 1.0 million to 72.0 million and 31.0 million, respectively. Combined milled- and brown-rice exports are raised 3.0 million to 70.0 million and rough rice exports are unchanged at 33.0 million. Larger exports of long-grain rice are expected to Western Hemisphere markets, including Colombia and Mexico, and smaller exports of medium-grain rice are expected to Turkey. No changes are made to domestic and residual use of rice forecast at 127.0 million cwt. All rice ending stocks are forecast at 30.1 million cwt, down 2.3 million from a month ago, and a decrease of 11.0 million from the previous year.

The 2012/13 long-grain, season-average farm price range is projected at $13.70 to $14.70 per cwt, up 50 cents on each end of the range from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $16.50 to $17.50 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, up 30 cents on each end of the range. An increase in export demand, for long-grain rice, along with expected stronger South American rice prices will help to support U.S. prices during the market year. Additionally, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has reported monthly prices for long-grain rice for August and September that have averaged about $13.90 per cwt for the first 2 months of the market year, up 6 percent from last year. NASS reported the preliminary October long-grain price at $14.10 per cwt.

Global total use of rice for 2012/13 is lowered more than the decrease in total supplies resulting in a slight increase in world ending stocks. World rice production is lowered 0.8 million tons to 464.3 million, down slightly from the previous year. The drop in global production is due mostly to lower production forecasts for Bangladesh, Thailand, and South Korea, which are partially offset by increases for Uruguay and Vietnam. Global exports for 2012/13 are raised about 100,000 tons mainly due to increases for the United States and Uruguay which is partially offset by a reduction for Argentina. Global imports are raised 1.3 million tons mainly due to a 900,000-ton increase for China. Imports are also raised for Colombia, Thailand, South Korea, and the United States. The increase in China’s imports is mainly sourced from Vietnam to the southern provinces. The differences in the marketing years for importing and exporting countries account for the difference in trade volume. Global 2012/13 ending stocks are projected at 102.2 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month, but 3.6 million below 2011/12. Forecast ending stocks are lowered for Bangladesh, Brazil, South Korea, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam, but raised for China, India, Iraq, and Indonesia.

OILSEEDS: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 91.4 million tons, up 3.2 million from last month due to higher soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production. Soybean production is forecast at 2.971 billion bushels, up 111 million from last month. The soybean yield is forecast at 39.3 bushels per acre, up 1.5 bushels as several states show the benefit of late-season rainfall. Soybean crush is raised 20 million bushels to 1.56 billion based on increased soybean meal export prospects. Soybean exports are raised 80 million bushels to 1.345 billion reflecting larger supplies and the strong pace of sales through October. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 140 million bushels, up 10 million from last month.

Soybean oil supplies for 2012/13 are raised this month as increased production more than offsets lower beginning stocks. Soybean oil domestic use is projected at 18 billion pounds with biodiesel use projected at 4.9 billion pounds. Soybean oil stocks are raised 250 million pounds to 1.52 billion on increased supplies.

Prices for soybeans and products are all reduced this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $13.90 to $15.90 per bushel, down 35 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $455 to $485 per short ton, down 15 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 51 to 55 cents per pound, down two cents on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 462.1 million tons, up 4.4 million tons from last month. Global soybean production accounts for about 75 percent of the increase with larger crops projected the United States and Ukraine. Increased harvested area and yields are projected for Ukraine as harvest nears completion. Global rapeseed production is raised due to larger crops in EU-27 and Belarus. Other changes include increased sunflowerseed production for Ukraine which is more than offset by reductions for Argentina and EU-27. Indonesia palm oil production is increased for both 2011/12 and 1012/13 based on increased area and yield projections.

Global oilseed trade for 2012/13 is projected at 114.7 million tons, up 2.4 million with increased soybean exports projected for the United States and Ukraine. Soybean imports are raised for several countries including China, Taiwan, EU-27, and Turkey. Global oilseed crush is raised 3.3 million tons to 392.4 million with higher projections for soybean crush in China, the United States, and EU-27, higher sunflowerseed crush in Ukraine, and higher rapeseed crush in China and Belarus. Increased crush results in higher projections for global vegetable oil and oilmeal production, trade, use, and stocks. Vegetable oil stocks are raised 2.5 million tons to 15.3 million with Indonesia palm oil stocks accounting for about half of the increase.

SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2012/13 is increased 613,000 short tons, raw value, compared with last month, due to higher beginning stocks, production, and imports from Mexico. The increase in beginning stocks reflects final data reported in Sweetener Market Data (SMD). Production in Louisiana is increased based on forecast higher sugarcane yields. Larger projected shortfall in filling the U.S. tariff rate quota is more than offset by higher imports from Mexico. Domestic consumption is lowered slightly, in line with the revised lower data in SMD. For Mexico, higher 2012/13 carryin stocks and projected production are based on government estimates. Mexico’s domestic use and ending stocks are raised in line with increases in 2011/12 final data.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2013 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month, largely reflecting lower beef and pork production. However, the broiler production forecast is raised slightly. Lower cattle placements in second-half 2012 are expected to result in lower steer and heifer slaughter in first-half 2013 as fewer fed cattle are available for slaughter. Pork production is forecast lower than last month on slightly lower expected weights.

Broiler production is forecast slightly higher in the first quarter of 2013 as the hatchery data points to a smaller-than-expected reduction in birds for slaughter. Turkey and egg production forecasts are unchanged from last month. For 2012, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised from last month as higher broiler and turkey production more than offsets lower red meat production. September broiler production was higher than expected and the production forecast for the fourth quarter is raised. The beef and pork production forecasts are lowered for the fourth quarter. Fed cattle slaughter is forecast slightly lower although cow slaughter is expected to remain near third quarter levels. Hog weights are reduced as weights have recently fallen below yearearlier levels. Turkey and egg production changes reflect data through September although hatching egg production is forecast higher for 2012.

Beef imports and exports are reduced for 2012 based on the pace of trade, but are unchanged for 2013. Pork exports are raised for 2012 and 2013. Poultry export forecasts are raised for both 2012 and 2013 on strong sales to a number of markets.

Cattle prices are raised for both 2012 and 2013, reflecting tight supplies of fed cattle through the end of this year and into 2013. The hog price for fourth-quarter 2012 is reduced slightly on current prices, but the forecast for 2013 is unchanged. Broiler prices are raised for both 2012 and 2013 as demand has been stronger than expected.

The 2012 milk production forecast is raised on higher estimated milk per cow in the third quarter, but production forecasts for the remainder of 2012 and 2013 are unchanged from last month. Fat basis exports in both years are reduced largely on lower butterfat exports, but skim solids export forecasts are raised, largely due to whey protein product sales.

Cheese prices are forecast lower in 2012, but the forecast is unchanged for 2013. Butter prices for both 2012 and 2013 are lowered as butter stocks are forecast higher than last month. Nonfat dry milk is forecast higher for both years. The whey price forecast is unchanged for 2012 but is raised for 2013. The Class III price for 2012 is unchanged, but the Class IV price forecast is lower on weaker butter prices. For 2013, higher whey and nonfat dry milk prices push the Class III and Class IV price forecasts higher. The all milk price is forecast at $18.50 to $18.60 per cwt for 2012, unchanged from last month, but the forecast for 2013 is raised to $19.10 to $20.00 per cwt.

COTTON: This month’s U.S. 2012/13 cotton forecast shows slightly higher production, resulting in a marginal increase in ending stocks. Production is raised 160,000 bales, as increases in the Southeast and Delta more than offset a reduction for the Southwest. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are raised 100,000 bales to 5.8 million. The forecast range for the average price received by producers of 64-72 cents per pound is narrowed 2 cents on each end.

Slight revisions to the global supply and demand estimates also result in marginally higher ending stocks. World production is raised 500,000 bales, reflecting increases for Uzbekistan, the United States, and some African countries. World consumption is reduced 500,000 bales, mainly in China, where free supplies are tightening due to the accumulation of production in the national reserve. World trade is raised marginally from last month. Forecast world ending stocks now exceed 80 million bales.

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