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USDA Bi-Weekly International Meat, Poultry & Egg Review


05 May 2015

USDA Bi-Weekly International Meat, Poultry & Egg Review - 5 May 2015USDA Bi-Weekly International Meat, Poultry & Egg Review - 5 May 2015


International Trade Highlights

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) recently issued its bi-annual report, Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade. According to the publication, world beef and veal production during 2015 is forecast at 59.01 MMT. This was down 1.1 percent from 2014. Beef production in the U.S. during 2015 is predicted to total 11.06 MMT, which is slightly lower than 2014. The U.S. is the leading beef production nation. During 2015, beef production in Brazil, the second largest beef producing country, is forecast to reach 9.82 MMT. This is 1.0 percent more than 2014. Beef production in the EU is expected to increase slightly over 2014 to 7.44 MMT. During 2015, world beef and veal exports are forecast to increase 2.0 percent over 2014 to 10.20 MMT. During 2015, beef exports from India are expected to increase 15.3 percent over 2014 to 2.40 MMT. India is the leading beef exporting country. Brazil’s beef exports are forecast to total 2.01 MMT, 5.0 percent more than 2014. Australia’s beef exports during 2015 are expected to fall 14.1 percent from 2014 to 1.59 MMT. U.S. beef exports during 2015 are forecast at 1.10 MMT, which is down 5.9 percent from 2014. During 2015, world beef and veal imports are forecast to total 7.80 MMT, which is down 1.2 percent from 2014. The U.S. is predicted to be the largest beef importing country in 2015 with 1.32 MMT, which is 1.3 percent lower than 2014. Russia’s beef imports during 2015 are expected to fall 18.4 percent from 2014 to 750,000 MT, due to declining oil revenues and a weaker currency. Japan’s beef imports are expected total 720,000 MT, which is 2.6 percent less than 2014. During 2015, China’s beef imports are predicted to increase 19.9 percent over 2014 to 500,000 MT. Meanwhile, FAS forecast world pork production during 2015 to total 110.87 MMT. This is slightly higher than 2014. China’s pork production during 2015 is expected to reach 56.60 MMT, which nearly unchanged from 2014. China is the primary pork producing nation. During 2015, pork production in the EU, which is the second largest pork producing country, is forecast to total 22.45 MMT. This is slightly higher than 2014. U.S. pork production during 2015 is predicted to total a record 11.00 MMT as a lower incidence of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PEDv) is expected to strengthen slaughter ready hog supplies. During 2015, world pork exports are forecast at 6.82 MMT, which is 1.0 percent lower than 2014. Exports by major traders are lower due to a reduction in shipments by China, the U.S. and Brazil and are not offset from gains by the EU. Pork exports in the EU are forecast to 2.25 MMT during 2015, which is 3.4 percent more than 2014. This expansion is supported by favorable prices in a number of markets including China. The EU is the largest pork exporting country. U.S. pork exports during 2015 are predicted to fall 2.2 percent from 2014 to 2.16 MMT as a strong dollar curtails demand, in spite of increased production and competitive domestic prices. During 2015, Canada’s pork exports are expected to increase slightly over 2014 to 1.23 MMT. World pork imports during 2015 are forecast to total 6.03 MMT, which is down 5.3 percent from 2014. Aggregate import demand is negatively impacted by Russian imports due to its weak economy as well as the ban on shipments from key suppliers and disease-based restrictions. Japan’s pork imports are predicted to decrease 5.8 percent from 2014 to 1.23 MMT. Japan is the main pork importing nation. During 2015, Mexico is expected to import 840,000 MT of pork, which is up 2.7 percent over 2014. China’s pork imports during 2015 are forecast to increase 5.1 percent from 2014 to 800,000 head. Pork imports from the U.S. are forecast at 556,000 MT, 21.7 percent higher than 2014.

Cattle, Sheep and Pigs

North America: CanFax recently published Canada’s current cattle on feed numbers for terminal feedlots with 1,000 or more head in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. According to the data, Canada’s total cattle on feed on April 1, 2015 equaled 878,763 head. This was 10.7 percent less than one year ago and was 10.3 percent less than the five year average. During March, the number of cattle placed on feed declined 3.1 percent from a year ago to 155,359 head. Also, this was 15.7 percent lower than the five year average. Steers placed on feed totaled 117,332 head, which comprised 75.4 percent of the total. Heifers placed on feed totaled 38,027 head. More specifically, placements of feeder cattle weighing less than 600 pounds equaled 7,577 head, which was 34.2 percent less than last year. Placements weighing 600 to 699 pounds totaled 17,356 head, 30.1 percent lower than a year ago. Placements weighing 700 to 799 pounds were up 2.8 percent over last year, amounting to 43,366 head. Finally, placements of feeder cattle weighing more than 800 pounds totaled 87,060 head, which was 6.5 percent higher than a year ago. Meanwhile, during March, Canada’s fed cattle marketings fell 10.4 percent from one year ago to 129,529 head. Also, this was 8.0 percent less than the five year average. To view the entire report, visit the CanFax website at http://www.canfax.ca/.

On April 22, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its monthly Cold Storage report. According to the report, as of March 31, 2015, beef in U.S. cold storage facilities equaled 479.8 million pounds. This was 18.2 percent higher than a year ago and was 5.7 percent higher than the five year average. Specifically, boneless beef in cold storage rose 20.3 percent over a year ago to 438.8 million pounds. Beef cuts in storage totaled 41.0 million pounds, which was unchanged from last year. In the meantime, at the end of March, pork in U.S. cold storage totaled 668.6 million pounds. This was 16.2 percent more than a year ago and was 13.7 percent more than the five year average. Specifically, hams in storage equaled 100.7 million pounds, 12.6 percent more than last year. The volume of pork bellies in storage fell 13.9 percent from a year ago to 68.7 million pounds. Loins in cold storage totaled 42.1 million pounds, 1.6 percent higher than last year. Pork ribs in storage equaled 113.7 million pounds, 5.8 percent less than a year ago. The volume of pork butts in storage increased 70.7 percent over last year to 34.4 million pounds. Pork trimmings in storage equaled 68.9 million pounds, which was 86.8 percent higher than a year ago. The volume of veal in U.S. cold storage was up 179.2 percent from a year ago, totaling 8.2 million pounds. Lamb and mutton in cold storage equaled 34.2 million pounds, which was 22.0 percent higher than last year. To obtain the complete report, visit the NASS website at http://www.nass.usda.gov/.

On April 24, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published its monthly Cattle on Feed report. According to the data, on April 1, 2015, cattle and calves on feed for the U.S. slaughter market in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.80 million head. This was relatively unchanged from one year ago but was down 1.2 percent from two years ago. The number of cattle placed on feed during March rose slightly from one year ago to 1.81 million head. This was 4.0 percent lower than two years ago. Steer and steer calves on feed totaled 7.46 million head, which was 5.4 percent more than last year and accounted for 69.0 percent of the total. Heifer and heifer calves on feed totaled 3.34 million head, which was 10.1 percent less than a year ago. More specifically, placements of feeder cattle weighing less than 600 pounds equaled 365,000 head, which was 14.1 percent lower than last year. Placements weighing 600 to 699 pounds were down 5.2 percent from a year ago, totaling 275,000 head. Placements weighing 700 to 799 pounds equaled 449,000 head, which was 3.6 percent less than last year. Finally, placements of feeder cattle weighing more than 800 pounds increased 16.1 percent over a year ago to 720,000 head. In the meantime, U.S. fed cattle marketings during March equaled 1.63 million head. This was down 1.7 percent from one year ago and was down 5.4 percent from two years ago. Also, this was the lowest marketings for March since the series began in 1996. The complete report is available on the NASS website at http://www.nass.usda.gov/.

On April 23, USDA NASS released its Livestock Slaughter report. According to the numbers, during the first quarter of 2015, U.S. cattle slaughter totaled 6.85 million head. This was 4.8 percent less than the previous quarter and was 5.5 percent less than a year ago. Beef production during the first quarter fell 5.9 percent from the previous quarter and 3.4 percent from a year ago to 5.59 billion pounds. At the end of March, live cattle weights equaled 1,348 pounds, which was 27 pounds heavier than a year ago. Meanwhile, U.S. hog slaughter during the first quarter of 2015 was nearly unchanged from the previous quarter to 28.53 million head. This was 5.9 percent higher than a year ago. First quarter pork production rose slightly over the previous quarter to 6.13 billion pounds. Also, this was 6.5 percent higher from a year ago. Live hog weights at the end of March were unchanged from last year, amounting to 285 pounds. Meanwhile, U.S. sheep and lamb slaughter during the first quarter fell 6.4 percent from the previous quarter to 492.9 thousand head. This was 1.2 percent lower from a year ago. U.S. lamb and mutton production during the first quarter totaled 35.3 million pounds, which was a little less than the previous quarter but was a little more than a year ago. Goat slaughter during the first quarter of 2015 equaled 101.4 thousand head, which was 21.1 percent lower than the previous quarter and was 1.7 percent lower than a year ago. To obtain the complete monthly report, visit the NASS website at http://www.nass.usda.gov/.

Pacific Rim: Recently, the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) published South Korea’s beef and pork import data for March 2015. According to the statistics, during March, South Korea imported 23,619 MT of beef. This was up 27.9 percent over the previous month and was up 2.0 percent over March 2014. More specifically, imports of frozen product totaled 20,123 MT, which accounted for 85.2 percent of the total. Imports of fresh, chilled product totaled 3,496 MT, of which Australia’s share was 68.6 percent. South Korea’s beef imports from Australia during March totaled 14,324 MT, which was 39.5 percent more than the previous month and was 7.7 percent more than March 2014. During the first quarter of the year, South Korea’s beef imports from Australia equaled 39,855 MT, which was 5.5 percent greater than last year. Australia was the primary beef import market for South Korea with 56.8 percent of the total. During March, South Korea imported 6,809 MT of beef from the U.S. This was 6.4 percent higher than the previous month but was 11.1 percent lower than March 2014. Year-to-date beef imports from the U.S. totaled 23,764 MT, which was 11.2 percent less than a year ago. Beef imports from New Zealand during March rose 43.5 percent over the previous month to 2,119 MT. Also, this was up 6.4 percent from March 2014. Total year-to-date beef imports from New Zealand equaled 5,373 MT, 8.3 percent less than a year ago. Overall, South Korea’s beef imports during the first quarter of 2015 totaled 70,201 MT, which was 1.1 percent lower than the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, during March, South Korea imported 41,110 MT of pork, which was up 32.9 percent over February and was up 38.5 percent over March 2014. Pork imports from the U.S. during March rose 68.7 percent from the previous month and 36.0 percent from March 2014 to 13,367 MT. During the first quarter, South Korea’s pork imports from the U.S. were 4.2 percent above a year ago, amounting to 32,745 MT. The U.S. was the leading supplier of pork to South Korea with 28.9 percent of the total. Pork imports from Germany during March rose 12.5 percent over the previous month and 53.1 percent over March 2014 to 6,984 MT. Year-to-date pork imports from Germany equaled 20,362 MT, which was 76.9 percent greater than last year. During March, South Korea imported 5,720 MT of pork from Spain. This was up 11.7 percent from February and was up 166.7 percent from March 2014. During the first quarter, pork imports from Spain were 199.5 percent above a year ago, totaling 17,698 MT. Overall, South Korea’s total pork imports during the first quarter of 2015 totaled 113,399 MT, which was 32.5 percent above the corresponding period a year ago. Additional data on South Korea’s trade can be found on the KITA website at http://www.kita.org/.

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