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USDA GAIN: Livestock and Products


11 March 2014

USDA GAIN: India Livestock and Products Semi-annual 2014USDA GAIN: India Livestock and Products Semi-annual 2014

CY 2013 and 2014 buffalo (carabeef) production levels are up slightly to 3.85 and 4.1 million metric tons (MMT) carcass weight equivalent (CWE) on continued efficiency gains in the dairy sector. Although no clear facts have emerged to confirm the veracity of the current foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak, expectations are that FMD will cause some losses in southern India.

USDA GAIN: Livestock and Products

Commodities:

Animal Numbers, Cattle
Meat, Beef and Veal

Production:

CY 2014 projections for cattle beginning stocks and calf production are unchanged. Although no clear facts have emerged to confirm the veracity of the current foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak, expectations are that FMD will cause some losses in southern India. CY 2013 and 2014 buffalo (carabeef) production levels are up slightly to 3.85 and 4.1 million metric tons (MMT) carcass weight equivalent (CWE) on continued efficiency gains in the dairy sector, such as the utilization of more nutritious feed. India has no organized beef industry. Spent dairy buffalo and water buffalo bulls are slaughtered to produce carabeef.

According to some experts, FMD is endemic in India, but this year the disease reportedly has spread throughout southern India despite intervention. No government officials or industry contacts provided solid information or commentary on the situation, but various media outlets offered points of analysis. Since Fall 2013, although Indian state officials stated to newspapers that FMD would be controlled through government vaccination programs and other interventions, the media have consistently reported escalations in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka. Most recently, in December 2013, because of continued difficulties, the government of Kerala stated in the Indian Express that it has banned interstate cattle trade and carabeef production for an indeterminate period, and said it would provide emergency care to infected cattle, vaccinations for healthy animals, and compensation to farmers for deceased livestock. Other states also have announced a similar emergency vaccination program via the media, but Post was unable to find official information on the Kerala or Tamil Nadu state websites. Karnataka posted a vaccination schedule that is available for download.

The current FMD outbreak may not affect exportable supplies. Most slaughterhouses authorized to export carabeef are located in northern India. For example, Kerala only has one authorized slaughterhouse; Uttar Pradesh has almost half of all registered units nationwide. Regarding other FMD outbreaks in other parts of India, on February 9, 2014, the Times of India wrote there are limited vaccination supplies to treat a rising problem in Rajasthan.

Consumption:

CY 2014 carabeef domestic consumption is projected to rise to 2.3 MMT CWE on higher population growth. Major carabeef consuming states are Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, West Bengal, and Maharashtra (See Figure 1). Carabeef is mostly consumed by the Muslim community.

Figure 1. India: Carabeef Slaughter Increases on Higher Domestic Demand

Trade:

CY 2014 carabeef exports are forecast at 1.8 MMT CWE on expectations of increased export demand from Southeast Asia. In the last three years, Indian carabeef exports have more than doubled, primarily due to competitive pricing. For example, the November 2013 FOB price for Indian carabeef was $3,189 per ton, while the Australian FOB price was $4,848 per ton. Notwithstanding, Indian carabeef export prices continue to grow on higher production costs (See Figure 3).

Figure 2. India: CY 2012 Top 10 Carabeef Export Markets for India

Source: Global Trade Atlas

Figure 3. India: Carabeef Export Prices Rising

Source: Global Trade Atlas

Policy:

The National Livestock Mission, which primarily focuses on goats, swine, and poultry, has been funded for Indian Fiscal Year (IFY) (April/March) 2014-15. According to a government of India budget report, the NLM will receive 273 trillion rupees, or $44.75 million. For more information on the program, please see the Livestock and Products Annual 2013 (GAIN report number IN3098).

March 2014

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