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USDA Supply, Demand Report: Friendly for Corn, Soybeans; Bearish for Wheat

10 April 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

ANALYSIS - The April USDA supply and demand report contained no major surprises. However, the latest government data was deemed a bit bullish for corn and soybeans, and modestly bearish for wheat, reports grain analyst Jim Wyckoff for TheCropSite.

May corn futures prices shot to a fresh 7.5-month high following the USDA report, but then backed off on profit taking and were trading modestly lower after the report.

May soybeans pushed above $15.00 and hit a new contract high right after the government report, but also then backed off to trade just modestly higher.

May soft red winter wheat futures prices sold off and were holding solid losses after the USDA data.

For 2013-14 U.S. carryover, corn came in at 1.331 billion bushels in April.

That's down from March estimate of 1.456 billion bushels and compares to 824 million bushels in 2012-13. USDA's old-crop corn ending stocks projection was 72 million bushels lower than the average pre-report guess.

USDA now sees an average on-farm U.S. cash corn price of $4.40 to $4.80--up 15 cents on the bottom end of the range and up 5 cents on the top end from last month.

Soybean carryover was pegged by 135 million bushels--down from March projection of 145 million bushels and compares to 141 million bushels in 2012-13. Soybean ending stocks were 4 million bushels more than traders expected.

USDA's national average on-farm cash price projection is now $12.50 to $13.50--up 30 cents on the bottom end of the range and down 20 cents on the top end.

Wheat carryout stands at 583 million bushels in April, which is up from March estimate of 558 million bushels and compares to 718 million bushels in 2012-13. USDA projects the national average on-farm wheat price at $6.75 to $6.95--unchanged from last month.

TheCattleSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Top image via Shutterstock

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