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Cattle Futures Are We Near A Major Market Top?

20 February 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - Cash fundamentals are more bullish this week and the market appears close to, or already at, a major market top, writes TheCattleSite analyst Jim Wyckoff.

April live cattle closed down $0.30 at $141.82 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a four-week high early on.

Bulls’ next upside price “breakout” objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $143.20.

The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $138.65.

First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $142.50 and then at today’s high of $142.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $141.55 and then at $141.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

April feeder cattle closed down $0.75 at $172.45 Wednesday. Prices hit another contract high today and then backed off to close near the session low on profit taking.

Prices today also scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. If there is good follow-through selling on Thursday, then a bearish “key reversal” down would be confirmed, which would be an early technical clue that a market top is in place.

But right now the feeder bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $175.00.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $170.00.

First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $173.32 and then at $174.00. First support is seen at $171.85 and then at $171.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

TheCattleSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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