Bulls Lose Advantage, Market Top in Place, Wednesday21 November 2013
US - Prices recovered to near the session high yesterday after hitting a two month low early in the day, writes Jim Wyckoff, TheCattleSite analyst.
February live cattle closed up $0.27 at $131.95 as short covering featured.
The cattle futures bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage, to suggest that a major market top is now in place. Bulls' next upside price "breakout" objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at last week's high of $134.90.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $129.85. First resistance is seen at today's high of $132.20 and then at $132.72. First support is seen at $131.65 and then at today's low of $131.27. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0
January feeder cattle closed up $0.35 at $162.75 Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range and saw short covering. Prices Tuesday hit a two-month low.
Serious chart damage has been inflicted this week to suggest prices will continue to trend sideways to lower in the near term.
A six-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The feeder bears have the near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of $166.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $160.00.
First resistance is seen at today's high of $163.05 and then at $163.67. First support is seen at this week's low of $162.50 and then at $162.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0
TheCattleSite News Desk
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.