ANALYSIS - Allendale Inc expects July Cattle On Feed placements to be 11.6 per cent higher than last fall. USDA will release their Cattle on Feed report Friday, 23 August 2013 at 2 pm CDT.
Cattle feeders are taking notice of cheaper corn coming this fall. Corn in western Kansas fell from $7.30 in June to $6.92 in July. This was despite terrible margin conditions on outgoing fat cattle (27 months of losses).
Cash cattle prices fell from $121 in June to $119 in July. July placements will be marketed from December to March. There will not be abundant Q1 cattle slaughter. There was a severe shortfall in lightweight placements in May and June.
Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 3.8 per cent higher than July 2012. There was one more weekday in July 2013 than in 2012.
Total Cattle on Feed as of July 1 will be 1.8 per cent smaller than last year. This would be smaller than the July 1 survey which showed 3.2 per cent fewer cattle.
Allendale projects a 528 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of July. The five year average is 488 million lbs. for the end of July.
Our estimate represents a decrease of 38 million lbs. from the previous month. The five year average month to month change for July is a 34 million lb. decrease.
Beef stocks, at 480 million lbs., are above the five year average of 428. This month's number represents a 1 million lb. decrease from the previous month. The five year average month to month change is nil.
**Pork Belly stocks are estimated - in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year.
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