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Australia Farm Exports to Ease, but Remain Strong

03 July 2013

AUSTRALIA - Australia’s farm exports are forecast to be around $35.8 billion in 2013-14, 3.2 per cent lower than the estimated $37.0 billion in 2012-13, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

In releasing the June edition of Agricultural Commodities, ABARES Executive Director, Paul Morris, said the forecast of farm export earnings has been revised upwards since ABARES March forecast by around A$250 million, in part due to an assumed weakening of the Australian dollar in 2013-14 relative to the average value in 2012-13.

“Although lower than in 2012-13, farm export earnings in 2013-14 are forecast to be around 16.3 per cent higher than the average of A$30.8 billion (in nominal terms) over the five years to 2011-12,” Mr Morris said.

Farm commodities for which export earnings are forecast to be lower in 2013-14 include barley (down 7 per cent), canola (34 per cent), wheat (4 per cent), cotton (8 per cent) and sugar (8 per cent).

Partially offsetting these declines are forecast increases in export earnings for wine (up 8 per cent), beef and veal (5 per cent) and dairy products (10 per cent).

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, the Australian dollar is assumed to average around US98 cents in 2013-14, compared with an estimated average of US103 cents in 2012-13.

Mr Morris added export earnings from forest products are forecast to increase by 6.3 per cent to A$2.2 billion in 2013-14, following an estimated decline of 5.5 per cent to A$2.1 billion in 2012-13.

Export earnings from fisheries products are forecast to rise slightly to A$1.2 billion in 2013-14, following an estimated decline of 3.7 per cent in 2012-13.

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