World Beef Production Set To Remain Stable04 November 2011
GLOBAL - Total world beef production is forecast to remain relatively unchanged in 2012, at 56.8 million tonnes cwt, reports Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA).
According to the United States Department of Agricultures’ (USDA) Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade, a forecast decline in US beef production will be offset by higher production from India, Brazil, Argentina and Australia.
As a result of the much improved pasture conditions and fodder supply, Australian producers have looked to take advantage of the improved season and rebuild their herds. Although carcase weights are expected to fall slightly in 2012, Australian beef production is anticipated to increase two per cent year-on-year on the back of higher slaughter, to 2.2 million tonnes cwt.
MLA reports that production in the US is forecast to fall five per cent year-on-year, to 11.5 million tonnes, with tight supplies of slaughter cattle and lower calf numbers driving the fall. However, the decline in US production is expected to be largely offset by gains in India (up seven per cent, to 3.3 million tonnes), Brazil (up two per cent, to 9.2 million tonnes) and Argentina (up four per cent, to 2.5 million tonnes).
Total beef exports are forecast to rise five per cent in 2012, to 8.2 million tonnes cwt, on the back of stronger global demand, particularly from South East Asia, the Middle East and North America. According to the USDA, India (1.28 million tonnes) is expected to account for nearly half of the world’s export growth in 2012, with price competitive shipments increasing to emerging markets.
MLA states that despite a relatively strong A$ and robust domestic demand, Australian beef exports are expected to increase moderately in 2012, to 1.38 million tonnes cwt, underpinned by increased production. Brazilian beef exports are forecast to reach 1.375 million tonnes in 2012, with the US at 1.25 million tonnes cwt.
Russia is again expected to be the world’s largest beef importer in 2012, forecast to receive 1.06 million tonnes cwt, ahead of the US at 948,000 tonnes cwt and Japan with 725,000 tonnes cwt.